Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

The GRP/MILF peace process always looked to have some serious issues, but it's looking more and more as if it may be sunk before it really gets started, a casualty of Manila politics. Basically, Manila is at a point where anything associated with the current President is being put through the wringer by well connected political opponents. The plan as agreed might have gotten through the legislature and survived the Supreme Court at the peak of Aquino's power. Today it probably won't. In an effort to make it palatable the administration seems to be trying to water it down, predictable incurring the wrath of the MILF negotiators, who expect to be accused of selling out their own people.

Some coverage:

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/philippine...063640481.html

The comments section of the article is revealing: it's a fair representation of public opinion among the Christian majority, much of which opposes any concession to the Muslims.

Not clear yet how it will sort out, but there's little basis for optimism. If this agreement is ditched it will be the second time: several years ago the MILF reached an agreement with the Government only to see it shot down by the Supreme Court. If that happens again the credibility of the moderate, negotiation-oriented factions in the insurgency is going to be largely gone, and the radicals will presumably take advantage.