Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

This:

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...ge-peace-talks

Raises an interesting question... who's paying for the so-called "sultan's army".

[Dayuhan]

Almost a year back I wrote this...

MNLF factions have expressed displeasure, less with the agreement than with their exclusion from the negotiating process.

Last month Nur Misuari, the leader of one such faction "declared independence", and claimed a new republic consisting of Mindanao, Palawan, the Sulu archipelago, and Sabah and Sarawak.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...s-independence

Misuari doesn't have the influence he had back in the 90s, and has been one of those most notably peeved at being left out of the peace agreement with the MILF. The declaration was not taken terrible seriously.

This week, an MNLF force believed to be loyal to Misuari attacked Zamboanga. The situation remains ongoing, several districts of the city are effectively occupied, hostages have been taken. Today there were reports of fighting very close to City Hall. The initial goal was allegedlyu to hoist the MNLF flag at City Hall.

It's a considerable escalation, as Zamboanga has long been fairly peaceful. Hard to know where it will go. The number of sub-leaders loyal to Misuari and the number of troops they control is not accurately known; estimates vary widely. I've read figures from under 1000 to 4000, don't think anyone really knows. These figure can change rapidly as local leader shift alliances.

It's widely suspected in Manila that the whole thing is an effort to distract from a huge ongoing corruption scandal involving major political figures; there may or may not be something to that. It does illustrate the difficulty of negotiating peace, and the number of potential spoiler groups involved.

Reportage on the Zamboanga situation:

http://www.philstar.com/nation/2013/...k-its-villages

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/484401/...-leaves-6-dead

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...anga-city-hall

[Dayuhan]

Fighting still ongoing in Zamboanga...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98D02V20130914

Fighting intensified on Saturday in the southern Philippines between government troops and rogue Muslim separatists, shattering a ceasefire almost immediately as it was to go into effect and leaving many residents running low on supplies.

The army said 53 people had been killed in the fighting, now in its sixth day in the port city of Zamboanga, known as the city of flowers.

Dozens have been wounded and more than 60,000 people displaced, with hundreds of homes razed and a hospital still in flames. Rebels have fired on government positions and seized civilians to use as human shields.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...oanga-conflict

Indonesia wants peaceful resolution of Zamboanga conflict

Natalegawa said Indonesia is always ready, at the request of stakeholders, to contribute to the restoration of normalcy in southern Philippines.

The European Union also expressed concern over the conflict in Zamboanga as it called on the Misuari-led faction of the MNLF to release the civilian hostages without preconditions.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/487263/...ght-says-binay

MANILA, Philippines—After five days of heavy fighting, Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Chair Nur Misuari and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin have agreed to observe a ceasefire and discuss a “peaceful settlement” of the crisis in Zamboanga City, Vice President Jejomar Binay said Friday night.

http://mnlfnet.com/Articles/Editoria...%20Respect.htm

From the MNLF website

CAUSES OF THE SUDDEN ERUPTION OF FILIPINO-MORO WAR IN ZAMBOANGA CITY

The Filipino-Moro war raging now in Zamboanga City between the colonial Philippine occupation soldiers and the Bangsamoro freedom fighters of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) could not have occurred if the present Aquino government respected only the September 2, 1996 MNLF-OIC-GRP Jakarta Peace Agreements.

break

Thus, once the MNLF leadership was informed by the OIC of the tactical move of the Aquino regime to terminate the peace process with the Moro National Liberation Front, the MNLF Chairman in consultation with the various MNLF leaders decided to prepare a revolutionary government constitution towards the establishment of the United Federated States of Bangsamoro Republik (UFSBR) during last week of July, 2013. -

[Dayuhan]

Indonesia hasn't been much involved so far; the Malaysians have been trying to act as a broker, but of course there's a fair bit of mistrust on the Philippine side, given the Sabah claim (fairly dodgy, but many Filipinos remain emotionally attached to it) and the history of Malaysian support for the MNLF in the 70s. It might be possible for Indonesia to play a role, but it's hard to see what they could do about this incident.

MANILA, Philippines—After five days of heavy fighting, Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Chair Nur Misuari and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin have agreed to observe a ceasefire and discuss a “peaceful settlement” of the crisis in Zamboanga City, Vice President Jejomar Binay said Friday night.

Gazmin denied this soon after, and the fighting went on unabated. The Vice President belongs to the opposition party, and may have been trying to grab a bit of TV time.

CAUSES OF THE SUDDEN ERUPTION OF FILIPINO-MORO WAR IN ZAMBOANGA CITY

The Filipino-Moro war raging now in Zamboanga City between the colonial Philippine occupation soldiers and the Bangsamoro freedom fighters of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) could not have occurred if the present Aquino government respected only the September 2, 1996 MNLF-OIC-GRP Jakarta Peace Agreements.

The MNLF really has only themselves to blame: after the '96 agreement they descended into factionalism and the leaders who were able to gain official positions were too busy at the feeding trough to look after the mass base, much of which splintered away to the MILF, ASG etc. Now of course the MNLF sees themselves being boxed out of the process and they want to push their way back in. While they have degraded to a large extent they still have sufficient force to make a mess, and if they get money they can raise more... sub-leaders and their troops in the region change allegiance very easily and will follow the money.

Where the money comes from is another question. There are strong suspicions that the fighting is related to events in Manila, where a huge corruption scandal has been unfolding. A number of those in the center of the scandal are core opposition members, including some figures who have been at or near the center of events for a long time. Some of these individuals are known to have been involved in coup plots in the past, some are well connected in both the military and the rebel movements.

There's suspicion that the Kiram incursion in Sabah was actually staged to embarrass Aquino (it succeeded) and diminish his hold on government (less successful), and there are suspicions that this incident in Zamboanga is a shot across the bow: lay off the untouchables or more of the same will follow.

Interesting times...

[Bill Moore]

Indonesia hasn't been much involved so far; the Malaysians have been trying to act as a broker, but of course there's a fair bit of mistrust on the Philippine side, given the Sabah claim (fairly dodgy, but many Filipinos remain emotionally attached to it) and the history of Malaysian support for the MNLF in the 70s. It might be possible for Indonesia to play a role, but it's hard to see what they could do about this incident.

Gazmin denied this soon after, and the fighting went on unabated. The Vice President belongs to the opposition party, and may have been trying to grab a bit of TV time.

The MNLF really has only themselves to blame: after the '96 agreement they descended into factionalism and the leaders who were able to gain official positions were too busy at the feeding trough to look after the mass base, much of which splintered away to the MILF, ASG etc. Now of course the MNLF sees themselves being boxed out of the process and they want to push their way back in. While they have degraded to a large extent they still have sufficient force to make a mess, and if they get money they can raise more... sub-leaders and their troops in the region change allegiance very easily and will follow the money.

Where the money comes from is another question. There are strong suspicions that the fighting is related to events in Manila, where a huge corruption scandal has been unfolding. A number of those in the center of the scandal are core opposition members, including some figures who have been at or near the center of events for a long time. Some of these individuals are known to have been involved in coup plots in the past, some are well connected in both the military and the rebel movements.

There's suspicion that the Kiram incursion in Sabah was actually staged to embarrass Aquino (it succeeded) and diminish his hold on government (less successful), and there are suspicions that this incident in Zamboanga is a shot across the bow: lay off the untouchables or more of the same will follow.

Interesting times...

Sadly, all you suspicions are quite possible, and while some like to say all politics is local that is far from practice in the real world. Internal national level politics in Manila may ultimately be more important than local politics in the south. I'm not venturing any guesses on the future in this case, because this event can play out as a catalyst for second and third order effects in a variety of ways (both for the better and worse). Three steps forwards, two backwards, that is the nature of these conflicts.

[Dayuhan]

I wouldn't say the national level is more important, just that it's a factor. Manila factions can't just conjure up tension or trouble in the south, but they can manipulate existing local tension to some degree, especially when money is involved it usually is). It's been likely for a long time that the MNLF would emerge as a spoiler in the Government-MILF talks, but the timing of this incident, and that of last February's eccentricity, suggest that a Manila hand may be stirring an already frothing pot.