Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

This story is still evolving and details are sketchy, but...

Apparently a Manila-based team from the Philippine National Police Special Action Force (sort of a combined SWAT/Hostage Rescue/Counterterrorist unit) went to a deeply rural section of Central Mindanao, an area under MILF/BIFF control, and tried to arrest two wanted JI terrorists, Marwan and Basit Usman. In the process, and in the middle of the night, they either directly attacked or stumbled into a camp of the MILF 105th Brigade, a unit closely associated with breakaway BIFF Leader Umeril Umbra Kato. The details are shaky, but apparently at least 30 of the police team were killed, some reports from the field saying over 50, along with much smaller numbers of BIFF and/or MILF. The difference between those is often shaky. An acquaintance from the area with MILF connections comments:

In that area, almost all major commanders from different factions are inter related by blood. An invasion force of 50 or 60 commandos is not enough to take on a heavily armed community. What is AFP going to do? Complain at the IMT? By now, the area is reinforced with different groups not controlled by the MILF. It is a blood feud, rido.

The size of the PNP team is not clear at this point, and few details of the actual mission are public (a sanitized version is probably being concocted). It does appear that there was no coordination with Philippine Army units in the area, and that when things went wrong the police team had nobody to call for help. There are still questions: the fighting apparently went on for some time; there are significant army and air force assets in the area, and it is not entirely clear whether there was any attempt to assist the group, or if not, why not.

The PNP is claiming that Marwan was killed in the fighting, but he's been killed several times before and always seems to reanimate.

This area is nominally covered by the Government/MILF peace negotiations, under which each side are expected to advise the other of operations. That clearly did not happen.

A lot more information will emerge, much of it probably distorted to serve various views. The peace negotiations, which already seems to be dead in the water, are a likely casualty.

[Bill Moore]

That is a pretty dire analysis Dayuhan, but if the report is correct I agree it certainly falls into the realm of the possible. I hope the report of the PNP losing large numbers of officers is inaccurate, since they are some the Philippine's best. As for coordinating with the Army, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Too many people in the Army won't hesitate to make a cell phone call to X who will call Y, and the operation is compromised.

In hindsight, if the report is accurate, there are certainly indications of planning not supported by the larger intelligence picture. If the Filipinos are listening to us, they may have lost the ability to look at the larger picture. This is a result of the misleading HVI focus, where security forces tend to look at the world through a soda straw focused on HVIs. HVIs may actually be important, but that doesn't mean you can ignore the larger context. This time they focused on Marwan (I think he has been killed at least 5 times now), and may have failed to see the larger picture. Marwan certainly needs to die, but even if all the HVIs in the Philippines were killed it won't change much. Waging war focused on HVIs doesn't work, and more than a decade of doing this we still fail to recognize this. Killing HVIs is a supporting tactical operation, not a strategy.

For now, just hoping this report is greatly exaggerated. Also hoping Marwan is actually dead.

[davidbfpo]

The BBC's report, no doubt compiled at a distance:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30978014

[Dayuhan]

The reports do not appear to be exaggerated. Official counts vary but range around 50 dead. The MILF is saying 64 PNP dead have been recovered:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/668150/...ps-were-killed

There is very little clarity on the mission planning, the actual sequence of events, or why they were not able to extract or reinforce the unit. Reports indicate that the fighting went on for 12 hours, starting pre-dawn on Sunday morning and lasting all day. Some reports say that Army reinforcements were sent but encountered opposition, others say no help arrived. Air assets were apparently not deployed.

A lot of what is being said now sounds like people desperately scrambling to cover their backsides.

The area in question is badland, about as bad as it gets. It is absolutely ungoverned space with a heavily armed and highly disaffected populace, many of whom have been fighting all their lives. Both MILF and BIFF units operate in the area, but the distinction is nominal at best: all of them are linked by tribal and blood relations and they will all fight together against an intruder. The MILF position is that they could have kept their people out of the fight if there had been coordination as required under the current truce, but that may or may not be the case. The area is marshland and heavily overgrown, with few roads. Vehicles cannot operate off road and movement is very slow. The ground is flat with few vantage points or reference points and it is very easy to get lost in the marshes. Even if you know where you are, if you aren't familiar with the ground it is very hard to move around. There's a lot of deep water, deep mud, heavy brush.

Some reports say the PNP unit raided a BIFF camp and stumbled into an MILF camp during an attempted retreat. That is very much unconfirmed and I don't think any reliable account of the encounter exists. Some social media reports from the area say that the group was seen moving in on Saturday, in plain clothes and unmarked vehicles but in those towns it would be virtually impossible to move in any numbers without people noticing.

Why they chose a direct raid into the hornet nest is not clear. The last time they had a location on Marwan they put a JDAM through the roof... they didn't get him, but they didn't kill 50+ policemen either. There is speculation that the reward was an issue or that a high profile arrest was sought, also that inter-service rivalry may have come into play. That of course is entirely speculative at this point. Whether or not truth will emerge is another story. I imagine there are a bunch of classified US communications flying around at this point that would be very interesting to see. There is a lot of confusion on the Government side; it appears that even senior police officials were not aware of the operation until it was in progress.

I agree that the strategic value of targeting these individuals is limited, though catching would be a propaganda coup and the reward may have been a factor.

As for the peace process... it was already in deep trouble, and at this point it has about the survival prospects of a snowball in a Mindanao marsh. Maybe when this all dies down it can be revived, but those who opposed it a along, and there are many of them, are having a field day and will not let this go any time soon.

[davidbfpo]

After 13 years of providing operational advice and support, the U.S. special operations mission in the Philippines, which was set up to help the Philippine military fight an Islamic militancy in the country’s south, is officially coming to a close..... According to local reports, U.S. JSOTF-P personnel joined their Philippines counterparts in a flag-raising ceremony in Zamboanga City to symbolize the conclusion of the U.S. mission.

Link:http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/us-co...-philippines/?

[Dayuhan]

A bit up this thread I posted some observations from time spent in Wao, Lanao del Sur, a town with a Cristian settler majority and Maranao Muslim minority, at the edge of the Central Mindanao conflict zone.

A few days ago this story broke, from the same place:

http://www.mindanews.com/top-stories...-for-sobriety/

In short: 3 kids, from the Christian settler community were tending water buffaloes. Men wearing "bonnets" (generally a balaclava-type hat covering the face) stole the buffaloes. Two of the kids, ages 13 and 15, were killed with machetes, the 15 year old may have been raped as well. The youngest kid escaped and reported that the killers had left in the direction of a Maranao village.

Early the next morning a large contingent of armed men arrived in that village and shot the place up, killing a number of residents, including at least one pregnant woman, and injuring others. Quantities of 5.56mm and 7.62mm casings were recovered, and 40mm grenades were employed.

According to the official story, all the officials in the picture are urging calm and sobriety and promising to track down and arrest all of the various perpetrators. Whether they do so in time remains to be seen, as there are reports on the ground of armed men arriving from surrounding areas to support their respective relatives and allies.

I made some inquiries among people I know in that area, and got sent this account, from an unnamed source:

On April 25, 2014 at exactly 4:30 dawn, twelve Maranao residents at Sitio Magampong of Wao, Lanao del Sur were massacred by the men of Wao Municipal Mayor Balicao and the private army of the mayor's son, brgy chairman Balicao with the protection of the Batallion Commander of the 6 IB of the AFP assigned in the area.

A day before the incident, a girl and one man were killed by two Christian men of the municipal mayor covering their faces with bonnet and rustled their two cows. The son of the municipal mayor who is the barangay chairman together with his private army informed all the Maranao residents to hide their arms if they have because the AFP men is going to conduct search and seizure in their houses. Taking heed to the information, the residents hid their arms. But in the early dawn, upon instruction of the Mayor and his son who is the barangay chairman in the sitio went to the houses of the Maranao residents and met a certain pregnant Maranao woman along the way and shot her mercilessly to death. They proceeded to the houses and more than 70 of them in number fired at the houses where there were sleeping residents causing the death of 5 residents. The son of Balicao with his BAR went upstairs and shot those who were still alive to death. One of the victims who has the .38 caliber shot the culprit causing him to jump out from the house. While he was downstairs, he ordered his private army and the closed in body guards of the mayor to fire at them until there was sound of silence. They left the area causing 5 dead and 7 seriously wounded. When they left, they were shouting with joy and laughing louder proceeding to the houses of the Balicaos rendering their reports.

The victims who were seriously wounded were brought to the nearby hospitals.

On Sunday 26 April 2015, Gov. Bombit Adiong went to the area and called a meeting with Mayor Balicao and his son to discuss the incident. It was clearly implied in all the statements of the mayor that his men and private army of his son were the ones who massacred the innocent Maranao civilians.

I am NOT saying the above is true: it could easily be embellished or invented. There are many inconsistencies between this account and the published accounts, but that is normal in these incidents, and each source often has a different account. It's significant, though, because it is circulating among the Muslim side and is being widely accepted as fact. People act on what they believe, not what is true.

My own take... I am not convinced that the initial crimes were a deliberate provocation. That area has a significant drug problem, mainly crystal meth. A buffalo is a quick money theft, and that kind of theft and the gratuitous violence that accompanied it could easily be a straight crime with no political overtone... or not, of course.

The revenge killings could very easily have involved approval of or even cooperation by local officials... in fact it's hard to believe that a raid on that scale could be organized and carried out without their knowledge, as they keep their armed groups under fairly close control. The habit of collective punishment, and responding to a crime by attacking the village the criminals are believed to come from is well entrenched. I can't say that it definitely was the work of local officials, but it seems entirely possible to me. The habit of blaming the other is well entrenched, and if the suspects were seen heading in the direction of a village that would be interpreted by many as sufficient cause for a raid.

The involvement of the military is possible but doubtful; the (Christian settler) local militias would have sufficient men and weapons to carry out the raid on their own. These are groups of semi-trained local men that are paid and armed by the government, nominally under military command but in practice typically under control of local elites and officials. The distinction between these militias and the "private armies" of these elites and officials is spotty at best.

Where it goes from here remains to be seen. On both sides you have official forces, the MILF and the Philippine Army, who would prefer to avoid wider conflict. You also have heavily armed irregular militias on both sides who are out for revenge and spoiling for a fight. It could blow up into a serious clash, or it could calm down and become just one more in a long history of smaller flare-ups.

Likely it will go nowhere, but it remains of interest, I think, as an illustration of how conflict can spark in a polarized community with a strong "us vs them" polarization, a history of violence, and a lot of loose arms.

[davidbfpo]

Coming up The Frontline Club, London on Friday and the meeting will be added on their YouTube page shortly afterwards:

The southern Philippines has a long history of conflict, with armed groups including Muslim separatists, communists, clan militias and criminal groups all active in the area. Most of the conflict in the south has taken place in the remote and flowering islands of central Mindanao. Adjani Arumpac is a Filipina filmmaker whose ancestors lived in the troubled region of Mindanao, where Muslim insurgents have waged war against the central government for four decades.
Arumpac’s film War is a Tender Thing reveals the aftermath of decades of war in the Philippines through stories recounted by the filmmaker’s family. Arumpac grew up in the battlefield of the ‘Land of Promise’ or Mindanao. Digging deep into the history of the integration of cultures brought together by state-sponsored land resettlement in the 1930s, Arumpac arrives at the root of the longstanding conflict — the massive migration within the country wherein ancestral Muslim and indigenous peoples’ lands were given by the Philippine government to Christian settlers from the capital.

Link:http://www.frontlineclub.com/screeni...nder-thing-qa/