Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

This is how it hit the news:

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/6...-npa-in-sagada

That's kind of over-dramatized, it wasn't really that close to villages. I was out there yesterday morning and it seemed like half the village was out watching. School was effectively out, the kids were all out checking out the helicopters. Didn't see anyone cowering in terror, though it does make people uneasy. They weren't shooting at "suspected lairs" of the NPA; it's a place they pass through, not a place they stay.

It's near and at the same time not so; that are is just north of us and the fighting generally moves away north into the wild country, not south into the town. That area is a junction of main trails running through the mountains and linking a number of areas; it's always a focus of attention after any kind of encounter, as the routes the NPA take to get out splinter off from there. I have some doubts about whether this morning's strikes were actually hitting anyone. They were shooting at a fairly open ridgetop with loose pine cover. The main trail runs right through it but it's hard to imagine an NPA unit moving through such exposed country in broad daylight the day after an encounter with helicopters known to be in the area. Normally they'd scoot at night or through heavy cover. Guess anything's possible though.

This one, late June, was more of a worry. Farther away, but south, which means the access/egress route was really close:

http://manilastandardtoday.com/2013/...killed-9-hurt/

It's not really getting worse, or better, just seems to ebb and flow. NPA is strongest in Abra, north of here, but they come over the mountain and stage an ambush now and then, I think largely to show they are a presence, and in hope that the military will get out into the villages and piss people off. The populace is pretty sympathetic and generally thinks better of the rebels than of the military (consequence of past abuses), but also prefers not to have the NPA around, as when they show up the military shows up too, and nobody wants the soldiers around.

[AdamG]

You allowed privately owned small arms?

[Dayuhan]

Small arms can be legally owned here, with a fair number of restrictions. Illegal arms are commonplace. The NPA is of course illegal by definition. The citizenry is fairly well armed, though discreetly so. A bit northeast of here it's pretty common to see illegal arms openly displayed; here they are generally kept stashed. Police and military are aware of this but generally don't want to mess with it; they stirred up the hornet's nest once before and it didn't go well. The populace mostly stays neutral in the NPA/military fighting; they are (largely, not entirely) sympathetic to the NPA but not to the extent of going out to fight for them in the absence of any direct threat to their clan, village, or tribe.

As elsewhere in the Philippines, the main source of illegal arms and ammunition is leakage from police and military stocks.

[Bill Moore]

Dayuhan,

Hope the troubles have ceased, it is bad enough when you're there my yourself, but the concerns obviously increase exponentially when your family is with you. Having fire arms to defend yourself from criminals makes sense, but not sure it would be wise to openly display a weapon in front of NPA militants. It could simply and unnecessarily escalate the situation, since the NPA normally don't target civilians. Trust you know their modus operandi in your area and can make judgment call based on that knowledge.

Interesting article on illicit gun trafficking in the Philippines.

http://opinion.inquirer.net/44717/il...in-philippines

Philippine Customs data monitored by UN Comtrade and the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers show that the Philippines imported 265,149 guns valued at $90.9 million from 2000 to 2010. These are dwarfed by the sales documents of exporting countries that show the Philippines actually importing 434,999 guns valued at $182.9 million from 1996 to 2010.

The discrepancy, 169,850 firearms costing $92 million, leaks into the grey market. The corresponding loss of revenue is quite significant.

[Dayuhan]

I don't see the NPA as a personal security threat at all; if I did I wouldn't be here. Of course you're right; having a weapon in the house isn't going to do a whole lot of good if a dozen guys with assault rifles come calling. Only real threat is the possibility of crossfire or just loose rounds flying around, but there hasn't been fighting that close to town here since the early 90s. Main personal impact is that when these things happen there are places I can't go for a while, some trails become dodgy and the wilderness area north becomes a good place to stay out of.

For the town, it's a concern because they make a fair bit of money from tourism and having a bunch of soldiers around is not good for the tourist trade. It's also awkward for locals when they are out doing things they do in the mountains and run into military patrols; the questioning is often quite aggressive and threatening, and people don't like it.

The whole dynamic of insurgency in the Philippines is very different from place to place, even in places that are quite close together. In some ways you have to look at it as a bunch of micro-insurgencies, each with its own characteristics (I suspect that the same applies to many other cases of what is generally perceived as "national" insurgency). In this immediate neighborhood it's heavily influenced by the reality that the tribes really do have full control over their land and resources, and don't need to ally with the NPA to fight off unwanted central government intrusion (as they did in the 70s/80s). In Abra province, a day's walk north of us, it's quite different.

In the 12 years I've been here I haven't felt personally threatened by any of it, hasn't been more than mildly unsettling. If things went back to the way they were from late 80s to early 90s, we'd move.