Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Bill Moore]

I wouldn't say the national level is more important, just that it's a factor. Manila factions can't just conjure up tension or trouble in the south, but they can manipulate existing local tension to some degree, especially when money is involved it usually is). It's been likely for a long time that the MNLF would emerge as a spoiler in the Government-MILF talks, but the timing of this incident, and that of last February's eccentricity, suggest that a Manila hand may be stirring an already frothing pot.

Fair enough, but you cannot get to a sustainable solution without Manila. It is all interconnected in many ways.

[Dayuhan]

Fair enough, but you cannot get to a sustainable solution without Manila. It is all interconnected in many ways.

Manila might be part of a solution if it chose to be, but the will isn't there.

Mindanao's problems are irretrievably connected to the scourge of big man politics, and to the effective exemption from law enjoyed bu those who represent the state. The real challenge for Manila is not bringing the rebels and bandits within the rule of law, it's bringing its own agents within the rule of law.

Unfortunately, Manila and it's many factions generally don't want to do this (whether or not they could even if they wanted to remains a matter of some doubt, but we won't know unless they find the will). The big men are useful. When you need a trusty baron to deliver 165% of the votes in his jurisdiction to your cause, you look to Mindanao and make a deal (ask Gloria Arroyo about that). When you need to make trouble for your political antagonists, you make a deal in Mindanao. Manila leaders have generally found the status quo to be something they can manage to their own interest, and over generations of that the Mindanao political culture has taken on a life of its own and will be no easy thing to stamp out.

On the matters referred to above, we now have this:

http://www.tribune.net.ph/index.php/...-decision-made

That's an open threat to Aquino: lay off on the corruption cases, or else.

[Dayuhan]

Just back from some time in Lanao del Sur, one of those places the Embassy tells you to never ever even think about going. Wasn't there for research, or to reach any deep conclusions, but there was a bit of casual observation...

Awake early one morning, before dawn, up on a hill watching lights come on down on the plateau in the town of Wao. Inevitably the scratchy loudspeaker as the muezzin emerges with morning prayers, followed by a series of community announcements... and after that, a rousing if distorted recording of Lady Gaga doing Bad Romance. Muslim Filipinos are still Filipinos, and if anyone in Saudi Arabia is sending money to bring that particular mosque over to Wahhabi austerities, they aren't getting their money's worth.

Wao isn't really typical of anything, but in Central Mindanao the atypical is typical. The town occupies a corner of Lanao del Sur, between Bukidnon (dominated by Christian settlers) and Muslim-dominated North Cotabato. It's cut off from the heavily MILF-dominated easterm portion of Lanao del Sur by a densely forested mountain range. The once dominant Muslim Maranao are now about 30% of the population. The other 70% is an ethnolinguistic halo-halo of settlers from around the country and a few thoroughly downtrodden remnants of indigenous hill tribes.

Local officialdom is quick to claim an exception to the rule, with Christian settlers and Muslims living peacefully side by side. They still think it necessary to supply outsiders with armed escorts; in our case a dozen or so militiamen. Their fondness for alcohol was a bit disturbing, but at least they didn't have the magically bullet-proofing amulets and glazed over stares I've seen elsewhere. I don't know if they were there because the officials thought them necessary or because they thought we thought them necessary... they did not seem to be expecting trouble, and their presence seemed pretty perfunctory.

Muslims and Christians lived in geographically distinct neighborhoods in town, in separate villages in the countryside. Some visible blending, but still a very distinct separation at the most basic level. Local officials were pretty diplomatic, but the militiamen were pretty blunt about the perception that the place is peaceful because they (the Christian settlers) are warriors who take no $#!t from the Muslims and keep them in line.

I did slip the leash and get into town alone at one point. I tried to open some conversations with Muslim vendors and in a Halal eatery. Usually that's not too difficult; people are naturally curious about a white guy who speaks languages. The people I talked to seemed very reserved and even a bit suspicious; it was hard to get them even into the small talk stage, let alone relax things to a point where conversation could be directed... hence little observation of perception in that quarter.

The most visible dichotomy was not between Muslim and Christian, but between rich and poor. The area is extremely fertile: rolling plateau dominated by large fields of pineapple, corn, sugar cane, and rubber. One of the few places in the Philippines where I've seen large tractors and other agricultural equipment deployed on a large scale. Very little food production for local consumption, and rather low efficiency: no intercropping in rubber plantations, reject pineapples left to rot in the fields, etc. Despite substantial agricultural resources, the large majority that does not own land live in really abject poverty, a pretty dramatic contrast to the egalitarian, highly intensive, and hyper-efficient production up here in the northern tribal country.

In short, while the observations and conversations were generally casual, the impression I came away with was of a place where the inherent potential for tension between the many dirt-poor landless laborers and the few relatively affluent landowners is re-directed into enduring tension between indigenous Muslims and Christian settlers. As is the case in much of Mindnaao, this is encouraged by local elites on their sides, who would rather see their people directing fear and suspicion at "the other" than questioning the extreme economic inequalities that prevail within their own social groups.

Could say much more, but that's already probably too much...

[Bob's World]

Great report and insights. I've never been there (sounds beautiful, if tragic), but this rings very accurate.

[Dayuhan]

This group:

https://www.facebook.com/BASSAKAO

Is entirely local, and has received little local and no foreign press coverage that I've seen. Today, though, they are doing the unthinkable and saying the unsayable. This afternoon, March 14, there will be a local citizens rally in the town of Jolo demanding an end to kidnapping and other crimes, which are increasingly targeting local residents. The rally will go on despite discouragement and thinly veiled threats (will you take responsibility if there's a bombing?") from local officials.

What makes this historic is that the group is openly declaring what everyone has long known but nobody, until now, has been willing to say: that local government and security officials are complicit in and directly involved with these activities and the groups, including the ASG, that pursue them. It is fascinating that this wall of silence is being finally broken not by the Manila government, not by the US leaders who have surely known about this for years, but by fed-up local citizens.

Where it goes remains to be seen, but I wish them luck, and hope they stay safe: what they are doing is very, very dangerous.

[Dayuhan]

Yesterday's Jolo rally concluded peacefully, although, as one participant put it:

During the Duration of the Indignation Rally: No Electricity, No Cable TV, No Radio Stations, No TV, Low Cellphone Signal. No Open Business Establishments! Do we really look like dreaded terrorists?

Hopefully nobody moves against individual leaders and participants, and they can press on and gather some political momentum.

[Dayuhan]

There is officially a deal:

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...-law-and-order

Where that leads is another question altogether: no shortage of spoilers and and many doubts even among suppoerte3rs of those represented. Still, it's an opportunity.