Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

This group:

https://www.facebook.com/BASSAKAO

Is entirely local, and has received little local and no foreign press coverage that I've seen. Today, though, they are doing the unthinkable and saying the unsayable. This afternoon, March 14, there will be a local citizens rally in the town of Jolo demanding an end to kidnapping and other crimes, which are increasingly targeting local residents. The rally will go on despite discouragement and thinly veiled threats (will you take responsibility if there's a bombing?") from local officials.

What makes this historic is that the group is openly declaring what everyone has long known but nobody, until now, has been willing to say: that local government and security officials are complicit in and directly involved with these activities and the groups, including the ASG, that pursue them. It is fascinating that this wall of silence is being finally broken not by the Manila government, not by the US leaders who have surely known about this for years, but by fed-up local citizens.

Where it goes remains to be seen, but I wish them luck, and hope they stay safe: what they are doing is very, very dangerous.

[Dayuhan]

Yesterday's Jolo rally concluded peacefully, although, as one participant put it:

During the Duration of the Indignation Rally: No Electricity, No Cable TV, No Radio Stations, No TV, Low Cellphone Signal. No Open Business Establishments! Do we really look like dreaded terrorists?

Hopefully nobody moves against individual leaders and participants, and they can press on and gather some political momentum.

[Dayuhan]

There is officially a deal:

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...-law-and-order

Where that leads is another question altogether: no shortage of spoilers and and many doubts even among suppoerte3rs of those represented. Still, it's an opportunity.

[Dayuhan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/wo...=tw-share&_r=0

U.S. Phasing Out Its Counterterrorism Unit in Philippines

An elite American military counterterrorism unit that has been operating in the southern Philippines for more than a decade is being phased out, the Pentagon’s Pacific Command said Thursday...

About time, IMO: the effort has accomplished as much as it was ever going to accomplish. Hasn't solved the problem, but only the Philippine government can do that in any case.

[Dayuhan]

The GRP/MILF peace process always looked to have some serious issues, but it's looking more and more as if it may be sunk before it really gets started, a casualty of Manila politics. Basically, Manila is at a point where anything associated with the current President is being put through the wringer by well connected political opponents. The plan as agreed might have gotten through the legislature and survived the Supreme Court at the peak of Aquino's power. Today it probably won't. In an effort to make it palatable the administration seems to be trying to water it down, predictable incurring the wrath of the MILF negotiators, who expect to be accused of selling out their own people.

Some coverage:

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/philippine...063640481.html

The comments section of the article is revealing: it's a fair representation of public opinion among the Christian majority, much of which opposes any concession to the Muslims.

Not clear yet how it will sort out, but there's little basis for optimism. If this agreement is ditched it will be the second time: several years ago the MILF reached an agreement with the Government only to see it shot down by the Supreme Court. If that happens again the credibility of the moderate, negotiation-oriented factions in the insurgency is going to be largely gone, and the radicals will presumably take advantage.

[Dayuhan]

This story is still evolving and details are sketchy, but...

Apparently a Manila-based team from the Philippine National Police Special Action Force (sort of a combined SWAT/Hostage Rescue/Counterterrorist unit) went to a deeply rural section of Central Mindanao, an area under MILF/BIFF control, and tried to arrest two wanted JI terrorists, Marwan and Basit Usman. In the process, and in the middle of the night, they either directly attacked or stumbled into a camp of the MILF 105th Brigade, a unit closely associated with breakaway BIFF Leader Umeril Umbra Kato. The details are shaky, but apparently at least 30 of the police team were killed, some reports from the field saying over 50, along with much smaller numbers of BIFF and/or MILF. The difference between those is often shaky. An acquaintance from the area with MILF connections comments:

In that area, almost all major commanders from different factions are inter related by blood. An invasion force of 50 or 60 commandos is not enough to take on a heavily armed community. What is AFP going to do? Complain at the IMT? By now, the area is reinforced with different groups not controlled by the MILF. It is a blood feud, rido.

The size of the PNP team is not clear at this point, and few details of the actual mission are public (a sanitized version is probably being concocted). It does appear that there was no coordination with Philippine Army units in the area, and that when things went wrong the police team had nobody to call for help. There are still questions: the fighting apparently went on for some time; there are significant army and air force assets in the area, and it is not entirely clear whether there was any attempt to assist the group, or if not, why not.

The PNP is claiming that Marwan was killed in the fighting, but he's been killed several times before and always seems to reanimate.

This area is nominally covered by the Government/MILF peace negotiations, under which each side are expected to advise the other of operations. That clearly did not happen.

A lot more information will emerge, much of it probably distorted to serve various views. The peace negotiations, which already seems to be dead in the water, are a likely casualty.

[Bill Moore]

That is a pretty dire analysis Dayuhan, but if the report is correct I agree it certainly falls into the realm of the possible. I hope the report of the PNP losing large numbers of officers is inaccurate, since they are some the Philippine's best. As for coordinating with the Army, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Too many people in the Army won't hesitate to make a cell phone call to X who will call Y, and the operation is compromised.

In hindsight, if the report is accurate, there are certainly indications of planning not supported by the larger intelligence picture. If the Filipinos are listening to us, they may have lost the ability to look at the larger picture. This is a result of the misleading HVI focus, where security forces tend to look at the world through a soda straw focused on HVIs. HVIs may actually be important, but that doesn't mean you can ignore the larger context. This time they focused on Marwan (I think he has been killed at least 5 times now), and may have failed to see the larger picture. Marwan certainly needs to die, but even if all the HVIs in the Philippines were killed it won't change much. Waging war focused on HVIs doesn't work, and more than a decade of doing this we still fail to recognize this. Killing HVIs is a supporting tactical operation, not a strategy.

For now, just hoping this report is greatly exaggerated. Also hoping Marwan is actually dead.