Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

This hit the social media mill yesterday, in the news today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/wo...=pl-share&_r=0

OLONGAPO CITY, Philippines — The Philippine police and United States Navy officials are investigating whether a member of the United States military killed a 26-year-old Filipino cross-dresser in a hotel over the weekend, the police said Monday.

Superintendent Pedrito Delos Reyes of the Philippine police said Monday that the United States Naval Criminal Investigative Service was questioning a member of the United States military in connection with the death on Saturday of the Filipino, Jeffrey Laude, a resident of Olongapo City.

Additional coverage:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/10...sgender-murder

Apparently the US Navy has stopped the departure of the ships, suggesting that there is something to it all:

http://www.rappler.com/nation/71882-...longapo-murder

US Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Locklear III ordered to put on hold the scheduled departure of US ships pending the investigation on the murder of a transgender that tagged an American serviceman.

The incident, no matter how it plays out, will be gleefully received by the left and will be a substantial embarrassment to the Philippine government, which has just negotiated an expanded military access agreement.

These things happen every so often, and the publicity is always huge and damaging... in 2005 a Marine named Daniel Smith was convicted of raping a girl he picked up in a bar, to enormous attendant outcry. The conviction was reversed by a higher court, after the victim recanted her testimony... a few weeks later she got a shiny new US visa, so you can figure what happened. On the basis of evidence presented, if he'd done the same thing in the US he'd have unquestionably been convicted.

What completely baffles me is why they keep letting these guys to hit the town and hit the booze. Given the nature of the alcohol/testosterone mix, that's a guarantee that sooner or later someone is going to step in the scheisse . I know everyone remembers the bad old days in Subic and how much fun it all was, but those days are gone and mistakes now have consequences. All they have to do to prevent these incidents is keep the boys on the boat or at least under supervision, and keep them off the booze and the hookers. If they can do it in Afghanistan they can do it in the Philippines... but they don't, and this is the result.

To me the only available option is to turn the guy over to the local justice system, let the embassy monitor proceedings, sail away and dump him. There's going to be all kinds of commotion over having him detained and questioned by Americans, and that's understandable. I would also hope that there are some kind of consequences for whoever made the stupid-ass decision to let him off the leash in the first place, because these incidents are totally preventable.

/rant

[WGEwald]

Captain Cook would have had the sailor given 12 lashes and continued on.

Anyways

Philippines–United States Visiting Forces Agreement

[Dayuhan]

Captain Cook wouldn't have had the incident all over the global media.

Last April the US and the Philippines signed an "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement" providing the US a substantially higher level of military access than the original VFA granted. The agreement was politically controversial and generated some hostility in the Philippines, partly from the left and partly from social conservatives and religious groups who retain distasteful memories of Angeles and Olongapo back in the day. There are organized groups eagerly waiting to make maximum political capital out of any possible incident, and they just got one that was beyond their wildest dreams.

Now you have an international incident, a huge embarrassment, two ships held up pending the outcome of an investigation, a Pacific Fleet Commander and a US Ambassador on the hot seat and (I'm sure) royally pissed off... all because nobody realized that a curfew and a no-alcohol order might have prevented a whole lot of trouble.

[OUTLAW 09]

Bill M--someone is seeing the light finally in the Philippines.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino called on lawmakers Friday to pass a bill endorsing a pact aimed at ending a decades-long Muslim separatist rebellion, warning them they would otherwise start counting "body bags".

Aquino had wanted the bill, which would give autonomy to the majority Catholic nation's Muslim minority in the south, passed this month.
But Congress suspended debates on the proposed law in the face of public outrage over the killings of 44 police commandoes by Muslim guerrillas in a botched anti-terror raid in January.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which signed a peace deal a year ago Friday, had said its members fired in self-defence at the commandoes, who passed through a rebel camp while going after Islamic militants.

"This is the crossroads we face: we take pains to forge peace today, or we count body bags tomorrow," Aquino said in a nationwide television address.
"Perhaps it is easy for you to push for all-out war," he said, hitting out at critics who have condemned the peace deal with the MILF.
"But if the conflict grows, the number of Filipinos shooting at other Filipinos will grow, and it would not be out of the question that a friend or loved one be one of the people who will end up inside a body bag."

The rebellion for a separate state or self-rule has claimed nearly 120,000 lives and cost billions of dollars in economic losses, according to government estimates.
Under a peace deal signed with the MILF, the 10,000-member group pledged to disarm while the Philippine government vowed to pass an autonomy law in Muslim areas of the south.

"The Bangsamoro basic law is one of the most important proposed bills of our administration. It answers the two most pressing problems of our countrymen: poverty and violence," Aquino said Friday.
He warned it would be difficult to restart peace talks if the current process failed and the MILF leadership lost its influence among its members to more radical elements.
Aquino is required by the constitution to stand down in mid-2016 after serving a single six-year term.

The January police raid sought to capture or kill two men on the US government's list of "most wanted terrorists" who were living among Muslim rebels in southern Philippine farming communities.
One of the men, Malaysian national Zulkifli bin Hir who had a $5-million bounty on his head, was reported killed.
But the other, Filipino Abdul Basit Usman, escaped as rebels surrounded and killed the police commandoes.

[Dayuhan]

someone is seeing the light finally in the Philippines.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino called on lawmakers Friday to pass a bill endorsing a pact aimed at ending a decades-long Muslim separatist rebellion, warning them they would otherwise start counting "body bags".

This has been an ongoing effort for some time, but at this point has about a snowball's chance on Taft Avenue in April of passing. Legislators have lined up against it since the Mamasapano incident, and it has become a political football, with prominent legislators lining up to tap the anti-Muslim sentiment that prevails among the majority population and turn the agreement into a nationalist issue. With an election coming up in 2016 that is likely to continue. Aquino has taken a beating; the incident was quickly and effectively exploited by his political rivals blaming him for the outcome and claiming that he's in league with Islamic radical separatist terrorists. It's becoming a bit of a circus, but the outcome looks likely to be a rejected agreement and very likely a return to open conflict.

[Bill Moore]

This is what happens when targeting individuals becomes the strategy versus an action that supports the strategy. I think they were close to a strategic victory, but based on what you said, victory is no where in sight now.

[Bob's World]

All good, effective, durable COIN begins with civil leaders creating and good laws and policies that offer a viable political alternative to the aggrieved population that insurgent groups emerge from or exploit. The US Civil Rights laws that allowed the US to turn the corner on the growing instability and violence of the Civil Rights movement is a great example. The British decision to give up colonial political control over Malaya and to pass laws granting suffrage and equal opportunity to the entire population as the military created time and space is another great example. The government of the Philippines has a chance to follow in those footsteps with Bangsamoro. I hope they do not blink and miss this opportunity.

Some of the darkest illegal violence of the civil rights movement occurred after the laws were passed. These types of human drama can not be turned on (by ideology) or off (by law) like a switch. They build over time as trust is violated, and must wane over time as well as trust is restored.

Maybe if the US took the bounty off the heads of these men it would help give peace a chance.

[Dayuhan]

This is what happens when targeting individuals becomes the strategy versus an action that supports the strategy. I think they were close to a strategic victory, but based on what you said, victory is no where in sight now.

I agree on the issue of targeting individuals. In this case the individual concerned may have been of less value than some believe, as argued by Sidney Jones, one of the more credible analysts coverings SE Asian Jihadis:

http://file.understandingconflict.or...n_Mindanao.pdf

How close victory was is open to question. The agreement may or may not have brought peace (there were formidable obstacles to come in the implementation) but was at least a step in that direction. Even if it had passed the legislature, though, there were already strong indications that the Supreme Court would shoot it down, partly because the Court is dominated by Manila-centric individuals determined to preserve the prerogatives of "imperial Manila", partly because the Court has an adversarial relationship with Aquino and would be only too happy to torpedo one of his signature initiatives. Politics are always with us.

Aquino might have been able to get an agreement through earlier in his tenure, when he still had more pull with the legislature and the Court. As it is, with coalitions fracturing and individuals lining up their alliances for the 2016 election, there is little chance of getting an inherently unpopular piece of legislation through even the legislature, let alone the Court. Aquino has made powerful enemies among the traditional politicians and the Catholic Church, and they are lining up to chop him down now that he's vulnerable. His own manner has at times made their job easier.

If the peace can be held up that long, it is arguably possible that the process could be revived under a new administration, but that seems a slim hope, as 2016 looks likely to be a step backward on multiple fronts. It is hard to be optimistic, and it looks likely, if not desirable, that we will become interesting again.

[Bill Moore]

If the peace can be held up that long, it is arguably possible that the process could be revived under a new administration, but that seems a slim hope, as 2016 looks likely to be a step backward on multiple fronts. It is hard to be optimistic, and it looks likely, if not desirable, that we will become interesting again.

On the other side of the equation, I can't help but wondering if the younger MILF leaders emerging will be willing to abide by the draft agreement. Seems ISIS has already regenerated a new wave of radicalism far beyond Syria and Iraq. As Colin Gray titled one of his more recent books, it will be another bloody century.

[Bill Moore]

WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.

[OUTLAW 09]

WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.

Bill--will give you a short story on just how shortsighted the US government, the US IC and just about the entire senior military leadership has been since 1993 when it comes to guerrilla warfare and Islamic insurgents.

Back in 1991-1993 when the US Army had a light infantry fighting division the 7th they came to our Reserve Intel Center near the Presidio and asked if we could design a "guerrilla/insurgent scenario" for them to train all non intel types in their BN staffs for the whole division--they picked this as it was similar to their Panama mission and their general outlook on how they were going to be used in the future.

And presto the 7th "disappeared" after the training was completed as we were in the "peace dividend drawdown" and there were going to be "no future needs for a light infantry division focused on UW/guerrilla warfare".

I together with a great Order of battle Tech (which "disappeared as well) then took the NEO for the Philippines and designed a complete 10 day scenario around no other than Abu Sayyaf who many at that time had heard not much from--we built then a robust guerrilla scenario focusing on driving staff functions designed to first detect what actually was ongoing, define the players and human terrain, design a info war messaging and then design a robust military response using light fighters coupled with Philippino military while protecting the civilian populations as much as possible.

After 10 days the staffs were exhausted but they had developed into a solid C-UW thinking team and had now a far deeper understanding of guerrilla warfare than when they came to us.

Fort Huachuca wanted a complete copy of the scenario and over 3000 messages as this was the day of the 289 computers and all was done by hand and typewriter.

THEN suddenly after they reviewed it--came the following "we anticipate no future guerrilla warfare or UW conflicts" and thanks for the efforts and it was canned somewhere in the depths of Ft. H.

Now 23 years later we are facing again what and where?? What a wasted 23 years when some truly saw what was coming at us over the horizon and the political and military leadership felt "peace was forever".

Remember it was the Philippines where we lost a truly great former SF officer/VN POW COL Rowe (remember this was 1989) in an out right assassination- who by the way knew it was coming as he called his wife the evening before to check on "legal things "and said goodbye something he had never done--and by the way that assassination was never fully investigated and had it's ties to the Islamic side of the house and some say the KGB. They had fired into what was later proven to be the only weak point in the armored glass which reflected someone knew our armored glass production and deficiencies.

It was there in 1993 for all to see--just no one wanted to seriously connect the dots to include the IC.

This fight has been with us since the very early 80s and it is not going away any time soon and the guesses of within the next 20 years is also wrong since the fight has been on since 1979 beginning with the name called Khomeini.

[SWJ Blog]

Two Soldiers I Served With Died In The Philippines. They Didn’t Have To.

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

Two Soldiers I Served With Died In The Philippines. They Didn’t Have To.


Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.

[SWJ Blog]

U.S. Special Operations Forces in the Philippines, 2001–2014

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

U.S. Special Operations Forces in the Philippines, 2001–2014


Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.

Moderator adds: this SWJ Blog post has been copied here, in part as an update, but also as the exchange there supplements this thread.

[AdamG]

Found while looking for something else, from 2013 -

Zamboanga siege: Tales from the combat zone

One year since the bloody siege of Zamboanga City, Rappler sits down with soldiers of the Light Reaction Battalion who have stories to tell and lessons to share

http://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/688...tion-battalion

Muslim Rebels Attack Philippine Towns
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/201...-towns/100589/

[SWJ Blog]

TSG Intel Brief: The Philippines Battles Abu Sayyaf

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

TSG Intel Brief: The Philippines Battles Abu Sayyaf

I have copied the one comment made via Dave Maxwell, from a Filipino contact:

I have a great deal of respect for Ali Soufan and the Soufan Group. Their report is accurate. I remain concerned about the acts of the Abu Sayyaf Group. BUT I temper that with some context. They are vastly reduced in size of actual hard members. They still get wide assistance from family and relationship based ''supporters.'' Those people are not necessarily ideological supporters but aid in some way due to social obligations. The ASG is largely confined to Basilan and Jolo. They don't have core reach the way they used to have. None of the groups in that region do. As the central government has improved schools, elections, roads to markets, and other governance issues the support for these people has withered. ASG's claim of allegiance to Daesh is still unclear as to scope, meaning and impact. Which way does money flow? We're not really sure. What fighters have gone to,Stria etc for training? We're not clear. Soufan raises good points, but I'm not raising my blood pressure. Yet.

[davidbfpo]

A sad update:

Canadian hostage John Ridsdel, a former mining executive, has been killed by Abu Sayyaf militants in the Philippines, a Canadian government official has confirmed.
(At the end) Abu Sayyaf is also holding other foreigners, including one from the Netherlands, one from Japan, four Malaysians and 14 Indonesian tugboat crew.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...in-philippines

[davidbfpo]

A Canadian hostage held by the militant group Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines has been killed, media reports say. Robert Hall was kidnapped in September along with three other hostages from Canada, the Philippines and Norway.Mr Hall was killed on Monday after a deadline for a ransom expired...It is still holding several captives, including a Dutch birdwatcher taken in 2012.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36517524