One of the best tours I ever did was in the Falklands. Beautiful place and professionally a great place to learn 'Jointery'.

I would agree with Rex Brynen that Argentina has very limited military means to take and then hold the Falklands. I would assess that the Falklands are vulnerable to a coup de main type operation, but thereafter it is difficult to see how things would progress. The UK has all but neutered it's amphibious capability, whereas with the current UK capability in the South Atlantic (even with or without the presence of SSNs) the Argentinians would find it very difficult to reinforce and resupply any garrison.

Currently Kirchner appears to be whipping up the hysteria for domestic political reasons, not least to distract attention from the dire state of the economy (as an aside it is interesting to note that the Kirchners were not very rich before they went into politics, but are exceedingly rich now ). The issue will undoubtedly boil down to oil and gas.

If commercially exploitable reserves of oil and gas are found within the Falklands Islands Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) then this may make a war worth fighting for from an Argentianian perspective, especially if the effort becomes pan-South American. A 'good war' by a popular alliance of South American nations against what is widely perceived as a colonial power with the prospect of a share of significant oil and gas revenues at the end would be an attractive proposition. The UK has limited clout in South America, in trading, financial and military terms she is now a middle weight power. Any pan-South American consensus on the Falklands issue would be difficult for the UK to counter and would place the US in an awkward position.

I cannot help but think however that the Argentinians are going about this the wrong way. If they encouraged trade and cultural ties with the Falklands they are more likely to bring the Falklands Islanders on to a negotiating stance in a generation or two. As it is since the 1982 invasion the Falkland Islanders have become culturally much closer with the UK and more distinct from South America.