Pakistan Predictions 2012

[omarali50]

I wrote this for 3quarksdaily: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...2012.html#more

The final paragraph: The long term future of Pakistan is “Indianization”. Not in the sense of “Indian cultural invasion” or “Indian hegemony”, but in the simple literal sense of “becoming more like India”. Obviously not exactly like India, but close enough for government work; a corruption-ridden, imperfect third world democracy with an expanding capitalist economy and many internal divisions and stresses and the additional burden of Islamic fantasizing. And I think there is little chance of developing a unique indigenous socialist/islamist/vegetarian short-cut past all these problems, much to the dismay of the Arundhati Roys and Tariq Alis, not to speak of Hindutvadis and Islamists. Pakistan will not show the world some new path to the future. It will be a “normal” South Asian country, trying to stabilize a democratic model derived from British Indian roots while working out a modus vivendi between its ancient cultures, its “Islamic” ideals and the modern world. The economy has now become too large for even the narrow elite to be dominated by imperial mercenary duties or scams related to the same. In that sense, things will be a little better. It’s not a perfect outcome, but we do not live in a perfect world.

[carl]

Omar: What is going to happen after we bug out of Afghanistan? That is going to severely upset the current situation.

This is great pair of sentences from 3quarks.

"The US embassy presumably knows more than we do. On the other hand, their declassified documents make it clear that they are incredibly nave and racist in their assumptions and tend to regard the people they have colonized as mildly retarded children; so there is a good chance they dont know bat#### about what is going on, but are able to present impressive looking PowerPoints about three cups of tea with Kiyani and the other brown children who inhabit the world outside the green zone.."

[omarali50]

I was working on the assumption that there will be no sudden withdrawal.
Not based on any special knowledge, simply on the basis that a sudden withdrawal in an election year doesnt seem likely to me. Even if the WH were to decide they want to, as you say, "bug out", it will be one long slow bug out.
I think withdrawal will eventually make things much harder for GHQ, not easier, but nobody said things will work out smoothly. I am just saying 200 million people, a 150 billion dollar economy, a large army, its going to drag on for years and years yet. And maybe even get better at some point.
I am also assuming that with a nuclear power, with china, with "needs" re Iran (which, frankly, I cannot comprehend), the US will find it in their heart to step back and try again, and again, and again.... Not happy, but willing to grit their teeth and give it one more chance "for the sake of the kids".. there can be mutually assured corruption from many angles.
I could be wrong, but I try to be optimistic.

[VCheng]

An important factor will be the role of India as USA draws down in Afghanistan, since the opportunity to open up a second diversionary front on Pakistan's west is too enticing to pass up, partly as payback for Kashmir, and partly to encourage a low grade civil war within Pakistan to achieve its long term goals.

[omarali50]

I am sure some Indians will work on this, but I will stick my neck out and say "it doesnt matter one bit whether India tries A or B or C, in ALL cases, GHQ will run into brick walls and in spite of that, Pakistan will remain mostly intact".

I am basing this on an unreasonable degree of confidence in the notion that there is really no alternative to joining the world on more or less "normal" terms and that "the world" finds it very hard to break up states in reasonable order and would prefer to work with existing borders to a very great (though not infinite) degree...the rest is details.

Of course I understand that those "details" matter a lot more to people than the overall direction. To the distant observer it may be a detail, to the person on the spot its whether he lives or dies or his dad gets rich or goes to prison or whatever. But taking the long view: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...lem-child.html

[carl]

Omar: I realize I am asking you to speculate, but since Israel is leading us uncomplainingly down the fairy path to war with Iran, how do you think that will play out vis-a-vis GHQ and what they may do? How will they view that?

Very good point about a big country like Pakistan being able to endure simply because of size and the resources that come with size no matter how inefficient.

[blueblood]

An important factor will be the role of India as USA draws down in Afghanistan, since the opportunity to open up a second diversionary front on Pakistan's west is too enticing to pass up, partly as payback for Kashmir, and partly to encourage a low grade civil war within Pakistan to achieve its long term goals.

Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing". Sure they'll try but as always will end up spending taxpayer's money on nothing.

[omarali50]

LOL. Relatives and Wives wing.
That may be a good thing. India has a long way to go yet and getting carried away with foreign adventures (especially among people who are expert at extorting such adventurers) may not be the best use of scarce resources. SOME resources probably need to be committed but diminishing returns and even negative returns kick in rather quickly. The best thing is to have capable people using scarce resources efficiently. The next best thing is to have wives and relatives siphoning off a small percentage without doing too much damage. The worst thing is to have incompetents lead you into quagmires and waste trillions....see USA for details.