Pakistan Predictions 2012

[carl]

Omar: What is going to happen after we bug out of Afghanistan? That is going to severely upset the current situation.

This is great pair of sentences from 3quarks.

"The US embassy presumably knows more than we do. On the other hand, their declassified documents make it clear that they are incredibly nave and racist in their assumptions and tend to regard the people they have colonized as mildly retarded children; so there is a good chance they dont know bat#### about what is going on, but are able to present impressive looking PowerPoints about three cups of tea with Kiyani and the other brown children who inhabit the world outside the green zone.."

[omarali50]

I was working on the assumption that there will be no sudden withdrawal.
Not based on any special knowledge, simply on the basis that a sudden withdrawal in an election year doesnt seem likely to me. Even if the WH were to decide they want to, as you say, "bug out", it will be one long slow bug out.
I think withdrawal will eventually make things much harder for GHQ, not easier, but nobody said things will work out smoothly. I am just saying 200 million people, a 150 billion dollar economy, a large army, its going to drag on for years and years yet. And maybe even get better at some point.
I am also assuming that with a nuclear power, with china, with "needs" re Iran (which, frankly, I cannot comprehend), the US will find it in their heart to step back and try again, and again, and again.... Not happy, but willing to grit their teeth and give it one more chance "for the sake of the kids".. there can be mutually assured corruption from many angles.
I could be wrong, but I try to be optimistic.

[VCheng]

An important factor will be the role of India as USA draws down in Afghanistan, since the opportunity to open up a second diversionary front on Pakistan's west is too enticing to pass up, partly as payback for Kashmir, and partly to encourage a low grade civil war within Pakistan to achieve its long term goals.

[omarali50]

I am sure some Indians will work on this, but I will stick my neck out and say "it doesnt matter one bit whether India tries A or B or C, in ALL cases, GHQ will run into brick walls and in spite of that, Pakistan will remain mostly intact".

I am basing this on an unreasonable degree of confidence in the notion that there is really no alternative to joining the world on more or less "normal" terms and that "the world" finds it very hard to break up states in reasonable order and would prefer to work with existing borders to a very great (though not infinite) degree...the rest is details.

Of course I understand that those "details" matter a lot more to people than the overall direction. To the distant observer it may be a detail, to the person on the spot its whether he lives or dies or his dad gets rich or goes to prison or whatever. But taking the long view: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...lem-child.html

[carl]

Omar: I realize I am asking you to speculate, but since Israel is leading us uncomplainingly down the fairy path to war with Iran, how do you think that will play out vis-a-vis GHQ and what they may do? How will they view that?

Very good point about a big country like Pakistan being able to endure simply because of size and the resources that come with size no matter how inefficient.

[davidbfpo]

Peter Oborne, a columnist for the Daily Telegraph, answers this question with what is a 'travel' column after his visits and TV documentaries, which I have linked before and so one passage is cited:

Many write of how dangerous Pakistan has become. More remarkable, by far, is how safe it remains, thanks to the strength and good humour of its people. The image of the average Pakistani citizen as a religious fanatic or a terrorist is simply a libel, the result of ignorance and prejudice.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/de...-Pakistan.html

I accept the vast majority of Pakistanis want a better world - near home - and we invariably only get lurid media reporting, with chanting crowds etc. The snag with Peter's argument is that the Pakistani state is quite different, with several factions capable of mayhem and one institution capable of miscalculation. That is why many fear for the future.

[davidbfpo]

Carl asks two questions:

What is going to happen after we bug out of Afghanistan? That is going to severely upset the current situation?

I realize I am asking you to speculate, but since Israel is leading us uncomplainingly down the fairy path to war with Iran, how do you think that will play out vis-a-vis GHQ and what they may do? How will they view that?

One, leaving aside the timing and format of a Western, primarily American, exit from Afghanistan, it is very likely that there will be a presence and the flow of funds. Afghanistan is unlikely to be a stable place and Pakistan will still have a NWFP problem - what do we do Sah? Pakistan has plenty of issues that need national attention, for example water supplies, but its institutions show little inclination to say 'No' to buying weapons systems. More of the same I fear. The big difference is that the USA is unlikely to be paying for Pakistan's support.

Two, if there is a war I cannot see the Pakistani public being calm, nor the military. Not convinced it will do anything hostile, although any existing co-operation - principally at sea - will evaporate swiftly.

[blueblood]

An important factor will be the role of India as USA draws down in Afghanistan, since the opportunity to open up a second diversionary front on Pakistan's west is too enticing to pass up, partly as payback for Kashmir, and partly to encourage a low grade civil war within Pakistan to achieve its long term goals.

Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing". Sure they'll try but as always will end up spending taxpayer's money on nothing.

[omarali50]

LOL. Relatives and Wives wing.
That may be a good thing. India has a long way to go yet and getting carried away with foreign adventures (especially among people who are expert at extorting such adventurers) may not be the best use of scarce resources. SOME resources probably need to be committed but diminishing returns and even negative returns kick in rather quickly. The best thing is to have capable people using scarce resources efficiently. The next best thing is to have wives and relatives siphoning off a small percentage without doing too much damage. The worst thing is to have incompetents lead you into quagmires and waste trillions....see USA for details.

[blueblood]

LOL. Relatives and Wives wing.
That may be a good thing. India has a long way to go yet and getting carried away with foreign adventures (especially among people who are expert at extorting such adventurers) may not be the best use of scarce resources. SOME resources probably need to be committed but diminishing returns and even negative returns kick in rather quickly. The best thing is to have capable people using scarce resources efficiently. The next best thing is to have wives and relatives siphoning off a small percentage without doing too much damage. The worst thing is to have incompetents lead you into quagmires and waste trillions....see USA for details.

It is not as well managed as ISI but in fact is a slow and bureaucracy infested organisation. For the very first time since it's inception it'll be facing CAG, a notorious auditing institution. Hence, the already limited resources will be even more scarce now and no more money for relatives and wives.

I wouldn't worry too much about R&AW, no more than Afghan or Russian intelligence. They too have a grudge and unlike R&AW, civilian leadership and bureaucracy is not going to hold them down.

CIA and American SF are there to stay and won't be going anywhere, not now not ever. As soon as the Pak loses it's only card i.e. supply routes post 2014, it'll be a mess on both sides of Durrand line.

[omarali50]

I am not "worried" about R and W in the sense of "worried what they may do to Pakistan". I was expressing the hope that R and W will not get India involved more deeply that is cost-efficient.
About Pakistan, unfortunately GHQ is not asking for advice from liberals or lefties or mildly cynical democrats. They are boxing above their weight category and ordinary Pakistanis are paying most of the price. Sadly, that may continue for a while. I agree that Relatives and Wives will probably do little damage and Afghans and Russians and CIA and ISI's own rebellious children (above all) will do more.
The following thoughts are easily misunderstood, but I do wish India would do better because I think the modern idea of India is superior to most other competing ideas in the subcontinent. I wish it success because I believe that its success will be good for a billion plus Indians and could pull up others around its periphery. I am aware that there is a large gap between idea and practice in India (and of course, there is in all countries) but the failure of this ideal would likely be a catastrophe, not just for India, but for its neighbours as well.
There may be smaller catastrophes along the way even if the idea works better, and particular neighbours may fail to benefit from its success due to their own short-sightedness or other obsessions (and it may have to succeed in spite of them, not with their cooperation), but a better India would be a net plus for the people of the region (though not necessarily for all factions).
If this sounds too mushy I would add that I do have far more cynical days..