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Thread: Pakistan Predictions 2012

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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by VCheng View Post
    What you describe as the positive aspects of Indian involvement are exactly what the ISI honchos are most afraid of, since it is this soft power that will make the coercive nature of Pakistani support superfluous over time for the Afghan people.
    http://rt.com/news/india-afghans-afghanistan-projects/

    If you consider RT a decent source.

    1) General Indian population sympathizes with Afghans. Afghans in general like India.

    2) Soft power like movies, songs and whatnot played a very positive role in that.

    3) So far, India has stayed away from local politics and military presence and focused entirely on development.

    Post 2014, India's main concern and job will not the encirclement of Pak but rather save Astan from Taliban. Indian companies, both public and private have made huge investments in Astan and will not be pleased to see it going down the drain.

    The claims of R&AW involvement in every adverse event is Pakistan are merely a manifestation of the India-centric mindset that has been so carefully constructed over the decades that even those who should know better are falling for it, so please do not think much of it.

    As the realization sets in that not only is the concept of strategic depth dead (not that it ever was alive), but the socioeconomic rot has become irreversible, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility that ill-thought out misadventures would be seen as last ditch efforts to save the state by drawing in other players by virtue of blackmail.

    Those panicked jerks will fail as before, but all this will take perhaps another decade to play out slowly.

    In the meantime, let's see what are the formal recommendations of the Parliamentary National Security Committee are for restarting the bilateral relationship with USA, with another desperate plea to consider Kashmir as a quid pro quo for helping with post withdrawal Afghanistan.

    That too has no realistic chances of success.

    Yes, the coming couple of years are not looking good for Pakistan at all.
    I wouldn't blame the poor souls. Losing a war and country divided in half, people need someone to blame. Niazi became a scapegoat and India was the new "Makkaar Gora". Here in India, 99% of those who know about Sino-Indian war of 62 blame China for every single thing. Nehru was no less responsible and Menon should have been hanged for his utter foolishness. This is how it works in the sub continent. But things have changed in India not sure about Pak.

    Strategic depth is pretty much alive. Ever since TTP waged a war on Pak, terrorism in Kashmir in particular and India in general has been quite low since the 80s. As soon as US leave Astan, PA will divert the radicals to the softer target. Other thing is that post 2014, Pak will lose the only bargaining chip it has i.e. supply routes.

    That will be the litmus test of US-Pak relations.

  2. #2
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    This paragraph caught my eye for its succinct depiction of what ails Pakistan:


    Some governments get it wrong on purpose. Amid weak and accommodating institutions, there is little to discourage a leader from looting. Such environments channel society’s output towards a parasitic elite, discouraging investment and innovation. Extractive institutions are the historical norm. Inclusive institutions protect individual rights and encourage investment and effort. Where inclusive governments emerge, great wealth follows.
    Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. By Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. Crown Business Publishing, ISBN-13: 978-0307719218

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