Joint India Indonesian Army Exercise Garud Shakti Concludes.

[Dayuhan]

One has to be a neighbouring nation to realise the threat China poses.

I haven't the burden of being a nation, but I live less than 60km from the South China Sea and less than 800 from the China mainland, which I suppose makes me a neighbour of sorts. I can't say I feel threatened at this point.

Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.

Although negotiations are in the early stages, officials from both governments said they are favorably inclined toward a deal. They are scheduled to intensify the discussions Thursday and Friday in Washington before higher-level meetings in March. If an arrangement is reached, it would follow other recent agreements to base thousands of U.S. Marines in northern Australia and to station Navy warships in Singapore.

I was in Subic a few months ago, much discussion of this. Certainly there will be more port calls (the US Navy has put out a tender for a tank farm and fueling station, among other signs), but for a whole host of reasons a permanent presence or actual stationing of ships or personnel looks quite unlikely.

[Ray]

I haven't the burden of being a nation, but I live less than 60km from the South China Sea and less than 800 from the China mainland, which I suppose makes me a neighbour of sorts. I can't say I feel threatened at this point.

Indeed you haven’t been burdened being a nation.

I believe you were a Peace Corps worker. With due regards and without being indelicate, I take it thus that you are not a Filipino by birth. If that assumption is right, I would be surprised that one can imbibe the local psyche and mindset in such a short span of time. However, a person of foreign descent, living in another country, even if he is naturalised, does not have the same apprehensions as a local since the foreigner has the route out to his native land in case of security problems.

I am aware that there are many Filipinos who are against allowing the US to set foot on Filipino soil. However, a Govt takes decisions based on geopolitical and geostrategic realities. Yet, in a democracy, no Govt can divorce itself from the local sentiments either. Hence, deliberations and decision are not quite transparent, and instead is implemented in a roundabout manner, and sometimes even with secret understanding that are not in the public domain.

If indeed there was no threat perceived by Philippines, the timing of the naval exercise with the US could have been deferred for an opportune time when the ‘heat’ had cooled off in the South China Sea. But no, it was held with much fanfare, bringing forth angry responses from China. If indeed, as some would say, these exercises were ‘routine’, it would not have drawn such hostile response from China.

Therefore, that there is threat perceived by the Philippines Govt is no figment of imagination.

US TO ROTATE UP TO 4,000 TROOPS IN PHILIPPINES http://bonginvirginia.blogspot.in/20...troops-in.html

It is obvious that there is a threat perceived in the Philippine or else why are they now eating crow allowing US military presence, when on September 13, 1991, the Philippine Senate outrightly rejected the ratification of the treaty that allowed the presence of US troops?

Not only that, the second naval vessel is being transferred to the Philippines. One does not ‘transfer’ ships without some sort of a military understanding. I believe that there are request to modernise their air force too!

Obviously, the Philippines perceives a threat from China and hence Philippines has backdown from its high horse of not allowing US to set foot in the Philippines, there being no other way out!

[Dayuhan]

I would be surprised that one can imbibe the local psyche and mindset in such a short span of time.

It'll be 33 years in September, minus a few spent elsewhere. Not exactly a short time. In my observation there is no "local psyche and mindset". There are many, sometimes overlapping, sometimes radically different, often contradictory.

However, a person of foreign descent, living in another country, even if he is naturalised, does not have the same apprehensions as a local since the foreigner has the route out to his native land in case of security problems.

Yes, I can leave, as can most Filipino officials. Extended presence in the region does not make one entirely of the region, but it provides a clue.

I am aware that there are many Filipinos who are against allowing the US to set foot on Filipino soil. However, a Govt takes decisions based on geopolitical and geostrategic realities. Yet, in a democracy, no Govt can divorce itself from the local sentiments either. Hence, deliberations and decision are not quite transparent, and instead is implemented in a roundabout manner, and sometimes even with secret understanding that are not in the public domain.

US forces have been setting foot on Philippine soil almost continuously since the departure of the bases, in one form or another. The objection isn't to "setting foot", the objection is to permanent occupancy of facilities, with all that goes with it. It's a complicated objection, and I doubt that you want to hear a detailed analysis, however well informed, of why the bases were removed.

If indeed there was no threat perceived by Philippines, the timing of the naval exercise with the US could have been deferred for an opportune time when the ‘heat’ had cooled off in the South China Sea. But no, it was held with much fanfare, bringing forth angry responses from China. If indeed, as some would say, these exercises were ‘routine’, it would not have drawn such hostile response from China.

Therefore, that there is threat perceived by the Philippines Govt is no figment of imagination.

There is a perception of threat, or perhaps more accurately a perception of potential threat. That perception is weighed against various other considerations.

The large exercises occur every year, and have for decades. Occasional smaller exercises are also held on a regular basis. There is always an objection from China. The media don't report this as a story unless there's some context that makes it interesting. The Chinese know the schedule. They're perfectly capable of creating an incident... a wee intrusion, or harassment of a fishing boat, timed to make a scheduled exercise look like an overreaction.

It is obvious that there is a threat perceived in the Philippine or else why are they now eating crow allowing US military presence, when on September 13, 1991, the Philippine Senate outrightly rejected the ratification of the treaty that allowed the presence of US troops?

Not everybody in the Philippines wanted the bases removed. The Philippine military certainly didn't, nor did their allies in politics. Under the circumstances at the time they couldn't successfully oppose it, though many tried. Are they now "eating crow" by changing their minds, or are they playing up the Chinese threat to regain a posture they never wanted to lose? Little is obvious in Philippine politics, or I suppose in most politics.

Not only that, the second naval vessel is being transferred to the Philippines. One does not ‘transfer’ ships without some sort of a military understanding. I believe that there are request to modernise their air force too!

There's been a military understanding for decades, since Philippine independence, and old US hardware is routinely given to the Philippines. There's been some effort to change that - some helicopters were recently purchased from a Polish manufacturer - but the Philippine military remains essentially dependent on second hand US goods. They would dearly love to modernize the air force, but they really can't afford it. I personally think they'd do better building a functioning air defence system and investing in maritime surveillance and fast patrol boats with missile and anti-aircraft capability than by buying F-16s, but my opinion is pretty irrelevant!

Obviously, the Philippines perceives a threat from China and hence Philippines has backdown from its high horse of not allowing US to set foot in the Philippines, there being no other way out!

The Philippine elite feels more threatened by domestic rebellion than they do by the Chinese... could they be using the China threat to pull in assistance and a presence that they hope can be converted to support against what they see to be a more immediate threat?

Always many factors involved.

I would expect an increase in exercises and in transient visits. I would not expect any permanent facility that could be called a "base".

I wish the blog you linked to had cited a source on this:

The US Department of Defense now plans to rotate as many as 4,000 Marines to Australia, Hawaii and the Philippines, including forward operating bases in Sulu and Zamboanga City, according to various news reports.

I seriously hope nobody is stupid enough to be seriously contemplating that.