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Thread: How Would A US-Iran War Begin?

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default How Would A US-Iran War Begin?

    Here is a 2009 Real News Network interview of former CIA and State Department Intel officers on how a War with Iran might begin. Remember this is from 2009.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLT8U...22RVAAAAAAAAAg

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    Council Member Polarbear1605's Avatar
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    Default Good Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    Here is a 2009 Real News Network interview of former CIA and State Department Intel officers on how a War with Iran might begin. Remember this is from 2009.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLT8U...22RVAAAAAAAAAg
    Slap that is a great question...a better question is: How could we (the US) win a war with Iran?
    but back to your question...obiviously if they do anything stupid towards Israel. Israel will immediately retailate and we are off and running. Another concern is the missle base that Iran is building on the north cost of Venezuela. Based on what you are seeing in the news, Iran is working on: 1. nuc weapons; 2. increasing missile range and 3. closing the straights. The question becomes if Iran has these increased strategic capabilities what is the leverage they want to use against the US and how much will we tolerate? and then where do both Israel and the US's strategic interests line up. This is where time will moves us closer to war.
    "If you want a new idea, look in an old book"

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Polarbear,it also shows how important it is to understand how Systems operate and how this understanding affects the survival and prosperity of the United States. Our whole country is being affected by much smaller external system(s). Israel and Iran. That is a very weak position to be in for the supposed World's only Super Power.

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Polarbear1605 View Post
    Slap that is a great question...a better question is: How could we (the US) win a war with Iran?
    but back to your question...obiviously if they do anything stupid towards Israel. Israel will immediately retailate and we are off and running. Another concern is the missle base that Iran is building on the north cost of Venezuela. Based on what you are seeing in the news, Iran is working on: 1. nuc weapons; 2. increasing missile range and 3. closing the straights. The question becomes if Iran has these increased strategic capabilities what is the leverage they want to use against the US and how much will we tolerate? and then where do both Israel and the US's strategic interests line up. This is where time will moves us closer to war.
    Any evidence of this supposed missile base besides the evidence quoted here?

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    Default Preventive War

    From Time, Obama: Prevention, Not Containment (March 5, 2012)

    In photo-op before closed-door meeting Monday morning, Obama tells reporters his commitment to Israel's security is "rock solid," says the U.S. will focus on stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

    POTUS: "My policy here is not going to be one of containment. My policy is going to be of prevention."
    I'm convinced the shift from "containment" to "prevention" was well thought out; and that the President is well aware of this spectrum:

    Containment > Responsive War > Preemptive War > Preventive War

    and what "Preventive War" means:

    A preventive war or preventative war is a war initiated to prevent another party from attacking, when an attack by that party is not imminent or known to be planned. Preventive war aims to forestall a shift in the balance of power by strategically attacking before the balance of power has a chance to shift in the direction of the adversary. Preventive war is distinct from preemptive war, which is first strike when an attack is imminent.
    Someone else can suggest the various options for waging "Preventive War". I'm still in "Containment > Responsive War" mode; and intend to remain there. And, no, a back and forth between Israel and Iran would not justify an armed response by the US against Iran. But, I don't write the US playbook.

    Regards

    Mike

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    Council Member Polarbear1605's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    Any evidence of this supposed missile base besides the evidence quoted here?
    I did a Google search on "Iran Venezuela missile base" 112,000 hits the latest dated Jan 5, 2012.
    "If you want a new idea, look in an old book"

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Polarbear1605 View Post
    I did a Google search on "Iran Venezuela missile base" 112,000 hits the latest dated Jan 5, 2012.
    A Google search on "alien abductions" gets 16 million results. I'm also curious about evidence.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Zbigniew Brzezinski interview on 26 FEB 2012 to include advice to the President for talks with the Israeli PM which he(POTUS) declined to accept based on his recent statement of his policy of prevention vs. containment.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4ubzm_5HWY

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    My biggest fear is that Israel goes-it-alone and then Iran, stupidly, decides to retaliate at least in part against the US. I think that's the mostly likely scenario at this point.

    It seems pretty obvious to me the President isn't interested in a preventative war (thanks, Mike, for the definition for that one), the intel community still says the Iranians haven't restarted weaponization work, I doubt the US will attack absent some fundamental change on the ground.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Real News Network comments on recent Israeli PM speech about War with Iran. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lHZY...58FAAAAAAAALAA


    Makes me think of CvC trinity of...... Passion,Uncertainty and Reason.

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    Default Assumptions

    I dont understand the underlying assumption that if Iran "does something" against Israel, then "we are off and running." Why does the US have to get involved if two other sovereign states go to war?

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    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    The real question is how such a war will end. I think there is a major disconnect between tactics and strategy here. Even if Israel (or the US) could be reasonably well assured that it could destroy Iran's current nuclear capability through airstrikes alone, such an attack would produce the very outcome that Israel and the US ostenibly fear: a nuclear armed Iran (not to mention the political fallout from Israeli over-flight of Turkey, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia). What better justification do the Iranians need than a direct attack by their publicly stated adversaries? The Iranian program, whether they intend to produce nuclear weapons or not, is simply too far along to provide any reasonable assurance that the program could be destroyed and that Iran could be prevented or deterred from restarting it in the future. Iran has more resources at its disposal than either Iraq or Syria. That said, I don't think either Israeli, Iranian, or American officials are this short-sighted. So what's the real agenda here? This isn't the first time we've seen fear-mongering about Iran's nuclear ambitions. And it doesn't help we're in an election year, with the American electorate pushed to the right by evangelicals and tea-party reactionaries. The real losers, besides the Iranian government under sanction, are the Palestinians, who's agenda has virtually be pushed off the world stage. And the real winner here is Netanyahu, his right-wing party, and Israel's defense establishment, which has managed to isolate both the Iranians and Palestinians, and raise domestic support for Israel's security programs.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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