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Thread: France, incl. terrorism & counter-terrorism (catch all)

  1. #141
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    Default Paris Attacks Live Update Sites

    Paris Attacks Live Update Sites

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    Vive la France
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    Default ISIS Daesh claims responsibility

    From the BBC's rolling coverage (11.02AM):
    In a statement published online, the jihadist group said the attacks were designed to show France it remained a "top target". The group claims it studied the target locations and carried out the attack using "eight brothers wearing explosive belts and carrying assault rifles".
    At 1127 AM:
    The statement claims that "eight brothers wearing explosive vests and assault rifles targeted carefully chosen locations in the heart of the French capital". It goes on to call Paris the "capital of abomination and perversion".
    "In a holy attack facilitated by Allah, a group of believers and soldiers of the caliphate – may Allah give it might and victory – targeted the capital of abomination and perversion, the one that carries the banner of the cross in Europe, Paris.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-34815972
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    The first thoughts belong to those enjoying life on a mild autumn weekend and suffered horror, severe wounds or even death and their relatives and friends. I hope for the very best for them.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    I had little doubt that the Daesh were being those heinous acts and neither that some of the murderes were already known to the police. Maybe this arrest on the 5th of November in Bavaria was connected. Delivering the weapons for the specific attack late after having undergone training elsewhere would reduce the chances od detection, I suppose. But that is only personal speculation.

    Examination of the suspect’s mobile phone and of the car’s GPS system indicated he was en route to Paris, German media reports said.

    Police experts impounded the vehicle and took it apart - to reveal a sophisticated operation with automatic weapons, 200 grammes of TNT, hand grenades, and ammunition carefully concealed in the car’s bodywork, according to the reports.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-14-2015 at 03:55 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Daesh involvement makes no sense. Daesh's survival, in part, depends on support from outside its territorial boundaries. Particularly, recruiting efforts. I have to wonder how this is going to affect the psychological support their message has, particularly in Western nations.

    Can't help but feel that this was a "Pearl Harbor" moment for them. But I have been wrong about them before.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Default Paris, ISIS, and the Long War Against Extremism

    Paris, ISIS, and the Long War Against Extremism

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Daesh involvement makes no sense. Daesh's survival, in part, depends on support from outside its territorial boundaries. Particularly, recruiting efforts. I have to wonder how this is going to affect the psychological support their message has, particularly in Western nations.

    Can't help but feel that this was a "Pearl Harbor" moment for them. But I have been wrong about them before.
    It most likely will increase recruiting and more importantly mobilize other latent jihadists in Europe. The effects will play over time in a way that further threatens Europe's security by mobilizing the reactionaries furthering the cultural divide and raising tensions that are interdependent uponeach other. The challenge will be off ramping from this trend.

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    Amidst the reporting I found these useful commentaries:

    1. John Schindler:http://observer.com/2015/11/jihadist...-is-horrified/
    2. Vox has an interview with Will MCants; in summary:
      McCants cautioned that we still don't know a lot about the Paris attacks. But in recent weeks, he says, ISIS has launched a suicide attack against an area in Lebanon where Hezbollah is strong. It's also suspected of bombing a Russian civilian airliner in Egypt. These attacks together, he says, suggest that ISIS is lashing out. It's been losing territory in Syria and Iraq, and this might be a response — an effort to deter further intervention against it by showing foreign powers that they'll pay a price.
      Link:http://www.vox.com/world/2015/11/14/...tacks-isis-why
    3. John Berger on the 'war of ideas' and the sub-title says it all:
      The Islamic State isn’t succeeding because of the strength of its narrative. It’s succeeding because it can mobilize a microscopic minority.
      Link:http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...aganda/415335/

    I do wonder why these apparently co-ordinated attacks featured suicide bombers trying to gain access to the football stadium after the France -v- Germany football match started. All three then killed themselves and so far I don't recall any reports of deaths there.


    One cafe attacked turns out to be owned and operated by French Algerian Muslims. How will that effect the French Muslim youth in the suburbs?
    davidbfpo

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    Thee commentaries, this time by British authors and the first by Professor Andrew Hussey, who is a resident of Paris.

    Andrew's note on some Muslims reaction is IMHO important:
    Across the street, in one of the tougher bars of the quartier, a group of North African lads was swigging beer. They were stern and grim faced and I caught the sense that they wanted to be seen doing this, as if to say that all that Islamist murder is nothing to do with us – we belong here too.
    He ends with:
    As Paris awoke on Saturday morning, the politicians declared that France was now at war. The problem is that nobody knows with whom.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...-my-experience

    Professor Paul Rogers has a wider viewpoint and this quote is important:
    ISIS wants war. It presents itself as the true guardian of Islam under attack from the “crusader west”. This message, though pernicious and dangerous, is currently being encouraged by the progressive withdrawal of all Middle Eastern states from active involvement in the airstrikes against ISIS in Syria.
    Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paris-atrocity-and-after

    From St Andrews University the author asks should we respond as ISIS wants:https://www.opendemocracy.net/gilber...t-playing-game

    Finally I noted via the BBC today only one person died at the Stadt de France, when the three suicide bombers acted. In a remarkable display of solidarity the French football team slept overnight with the German team, after being advised to stay put.
    davidbfpo

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    Chechen trace: Paris police suspects that #Putin’s ally #Kadyrov could be a mastermind behind #ParisAttacks
    http://newsdaily.com.ua/post/1103316

    #French police arrest five #Russians suspected of planning an attack http://gu.com/p/45377/stw

    France kicked out another five Chechens in Feb 2015-----they were also arrested.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Chechen trace: Paris police suspects that #Putin’s ally #Kadyrov could be a mastermind behind #ParisAttacks
    http://newsdaily.com.ua/post/1103316

    #French police arrest five #Russians suspected of planning an attack http://gu.com/p/45377/stw

    France kicked out another five Chechens in Feb 2015-----they were also arrested.
    Paris was a well-planned op. There's a professional bomb-maker out there somewhere. Nothing "homegrown" here.

    Paris suicide vests professionally made-TATP
    http://tribune.com.pk/story/991959/p...nd-new-threat/
    Bomb-maker - 'not cannon fodder'
    Still on the loose


    This is not normal for IS released publications--no reference to Paris attacks.....
    No mention of #ParisAttacks in Daesh English Bulletin!
    pic.twitter.com/9w6kUbj1s1

    Audio of #ISIS terrorist statement was uploaded to #Russia|n Mail.Ru services AFTER #ParisAttacks
    MT @hohland_gosdep
    pic.twitter.com/8iOuYIlewo
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-15-2015 at 04:10 PM.

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    Top EU Diplomat Warns of Dangers of ‘Extreme Nationalism’ After Paris Attack. Rise of Le Pen? Music to Moscows ears
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/15/...-paris-attack/

    HELP If any jihadist is tweeting/insta/fbing anything celebratory concerning the atrocities in Paris, report them at
    http://ghostsec.org

    Ghostsec.org has identified hundreds of IS Twitter accounts---something Twitter seems to be unable to do themselves.

    Famous #Russian bloger believes that #Putin’s #FSB is behind #ParisAttacks and #A321 bombing
    https://translate.google.co.uk/trans...bus-isis-putin
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-15-2015 at 04:18 PM.

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    Outlaw,

    You're a well known anti-Russian, and I'm with you on that. However, this acquisition without any supporting evidence other than twitter feeds is over the top. You're allowing your bias to overcome your reasoning. Russia, or more accurately the USSR, has a history of supporting terrorism, but not radical Islam, so like all good propaganda there is a little bit there that makes you want to believe it. These claims are reminiscent of the U.S. rigging the World Trade Center with explosives.

    The Chechens may be Russian, but that doesn't mean they're supported by the government of Russia. They're active in Jihad in many places outside of Chechnya. As for the attacks being professional, there is a long laundry list of terrorists conducting professional and complex attacks. I also wouldn't don't think it was that professional considering three suicide bombers killed themselves outside the football stadium and only killed one bystander.

    As for claims, NYT claims ISIL/ISIS/IS did claim the attack on Twitter.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/wo...cles.html?_r=0

    The Islamic State claimed responsibility on Saturday for the catastrophic attacks in the French capital, calling them “the first of the storm” and mocking France as a “capital of prostitution and obscenity,”
    The remarks came in a communiqué published in Arabic, English and French on the Islamic State’s account on Telegram, a messaging platform, and then distributed via its supporters on Twitter, according to a transcript provided by the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks jihadist propaganda.
    SITE intelligence is a credible source

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    Bill---not anti Russian--just someone with a very healthy distrust of Russian political leadership since 1991. Old school IR degree--actions are what you judge a country and a country's leadership on---not on their words.

    A number of points---the IS does their info war in a standard straight forward way--yes they claimed both Paris and the Russian airliner BUT in their recent Russian threat video they intertwined the downing in that message--in their English Newsletter just released right after Paris---absolutely no claim --that in itself is not normal behavior.

    Russia is driving a two front approach to IS--the internal security services has allowed 2500-4000 jihadi's to leave Russia to fight in Syria, they fought two Chechen wars, and are still fighting Islamists in the southern RF regions.

    The current Chechnya leader has openly stated he is ready to send 25K Chechen fighters to Syria....and Chechens have been fighting for Russia inside eastern Ukraine--he just needs Putin to ask.

    Putin claims to go to Syria to fight and destroy IS but has basically attacked those fighting strictly Assad NOT touching IS at all.

    If one tracks Russian actions towards IS you will find them interwoven with Assad and Iran especially since the former KGB/GRU now FSB/GRU has trained the Assad intelligence service and in 2011 Assad released a large number of IS fighters they had in their prisons--and the FSB did not know them and or had contact with them. There have been numerous tidbits of IS, FSB, Turkish and Iranian connections mentioned over the last four years.

    In the last week or so you have seen a number of articles pointing the finger at the former Iraqi Intelligence officers being deeply behind IS.

    When I pointed this out in 2005 after a long debrief of a insurgent leader who was a ISI officer and who had been trained by both the KGB/MfS in the University of Baghdad--when I went up to National with it--no interest whatsoever

    BTW--in one article it mentioned who is currently really leading IS---that name I forward to National as the key individual in 2005 and againthere was no interest whatsoever. So ten years later this is all of a sudden "news"?

    I probably was the only interrogator during that time who could have picked up on it as most had no experience at all concerning the KGB/MfS training and methods.

    Secondly, just a week or so before the first attack on Paris this particular Russian comment posted a similar comment----his warnings started back in Sept 2015.

    BTW--SITE actually missed a IS video released on 22 July 2015 stating that they would fill the streets of France with dead bodies--no connection between the IS posting and the Russian posting??

    Vladimir Bagrianski warned of Russian attacks in Europe as far bck as on 9 septembre 2015
    https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.ba...87?pnref=story

    Putin's actions in relationship to the airliner downing have been rather strange to say the least....he did not respond for over 55 hours and then it really was not a true response that one would have thought especially since he is from St. Petersburg himself.

    There has been a not so subtle indication that the shot down of MH17 was actually suppose to be for the Russian Aeroflot airliner seven minutes behind MH17 and the BUK acquisition radar could not tell the difference.

    Russia has a history of four false flag attacks in the last 18 months in the Ukraine.

    So excuse me if I have may doubts about this attack being strictly IS run--there are more players in the background that need to be intently watched.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-15-2015 at 07:09 PM.

  16. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Outlaw,

    You're a well known anti-Russian, and I'm with you on that. However, this acquisition without any supporting evidence other than twitter feeds is over the top. You're allowing your bias to overcome your reasoning. Russia, or more accurately the USSR, has a history of supporting terrorism, but not radical Islam, so like all good propaganda there is a little bit there that makes you want to believe it. These claims are reminiscent of the U.S. rigging the World Trade Center with explosives.

    The Chechens may be Russian, but that doesn't mean they're supported by the government of Russia. They're active in Jihad in many places outside of Chechnya. As for the attacks being professional, there is a long laundry list of terrorists conducting professional and complex attacks. I also wouldn't don't think it was that professional considering three suicide bombers killed themselves outside the football stadium and only killed one bystander.

    As for claims, NYT claims ISIL/ISIS/IS did claim the attack on Twitter.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/wo...cles.html?_r=0

    SITE intelligence is a credible source
    Paris attackers communicated with #ISIS using encryption. Attackers also showed military training - NYTimes

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/16...cials-say.html

    BTW--they were using PlayStation 4 comm devices....and the vests were made by a bombmaker who knew his tradecraft..not a home grown type.

    BREAKING: AP reports #Iraq warned US-led coalition countries of imminent assault before #Paris attacks - @garretpustay
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-15-2015 at 07:37 PM.

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    I'm not denying legacy connections between various adversary intelligence organizations and terrorist organizations. That game has existed for decades, and I suspect it continues today. There are areas I don't understand, such as the apparent lack of conflict between Assad's forces and ISIL. As for former Saddam regime members working with AQI and ISIL is well known by those who follow the conflict, and it is logical they maintained thei contacts with Russian intelligence, but promoting an attack on Paris makes no sense. To avoid generating conspiracy theories that distract from the truth I think it is best to wait for the facts to materialize. If your allegations are correct, that would be an act of war by Russia. Before we go there, let's slow our roll and really think through this. I suspect it was ISIL, an organization more than capable of doing this without state support.

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    http://linkis.com/euromaidanpress.com/MhFi9

    PART 1

    Russian trace in Paris bombing theory not as crazy as you might think

    Article by: Mychailo Wynnyckyj

    Tonight the world mourns the victims of the IS (“Islamic State”) attacks on Paris. Meanwhile, seemingly as proof of the degree to which Ukraine is peripheral to global public opinion, the resurgent conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas goes unnoticed (as do the bombings in Beirut two days ago). In Ukraine, this morning’s news broadcasts reported intensified artillery and small-arms fire along the entire length of the front in the east. Apparently the “separatists” (aka Russian mercenaries and “military advisors” from the Russian Federation) have resumed shelling of Ukrainian army positions from tanks, and supposedly withdrawn (according to the Minsk/Paris accords) heavy artillery. Tonight’s news broadcasts have reported 7 dead and 8 injured among Ukraine’s defenders.

    I haven’t written my “Thoughts from Kyiv” for a while. That’s not to say I’ve stopped writing, just not in this genre. My previous “Thoughts” have been described by some as “analytical”, but by many others as “long” and/or “alarmist.” If you feel the latter labels are appropriate, stop reading now – you won’t enjoy the text anyway…

    Incidentally, the label “alarmist” was first applied to me after a series of articles I posted in March-April 2014 in which I tried to warn anyone who would listen that Putin’s aggression in Crimea and the Donbas were not a limited action, but part of a much broader expansionist strategy. Later, in October 2014, I warned of the possibility of aerial bombardments of Kyiv, and even though US General Breedlove (Supreme Allied Commander, Europe) reiterated the same warning several days later, the “alarmist” label stuck to me, not him. So now, I’m gun shy: in this article I’ll present scenarios rather than predictions. I am not Vladimir Putin’s psychotherapist, and so have no idea what course of action his sick mind will decide to take up in the immediate future. I also have no doubt that rational choice is not a forte of the Russian President – at least not the same way “rationality” is understood by most intelligent people educated in a post-Enlightenment western paradigm. Nevertheless, he has made his intentions clear in several public addresses, and has backed these up with action – alas few have listened…

    As I write these words, my Facebook newsfeed is filled with speculation written by Ukrainians searching for a “Russian trace” in the Paris attacks. Although I am generally wary of conspiracy theories, the logic of several of these posts gives one pause. Take for example, the list of rhetorical propositions presented by Channel 5 journalist Vitaliy Haydukevych who asks “whose interests are served by the Paris attacks?”:
    1.In the wake of an IS attack on Paris, anti-Islamic sentiment in France (and Euroscepticism in other EU member states) inevitably will rise, likely to the political benefit of the radical right Front National (and equivalent parties in other European countries). Who finances Marie Le-Pen?
    2.The universally accepted notion of Europe as being secure and prosperous has been shaken – particularly among those in Eastern Europe (e.g. eastern and central Ukraine) who have become recent converts to the cause of Eurointegration.
    3.The French security apparatus (apparently) knew that a terrorist threat existed, but were powerless to avert the attacks – this meme is particularly popular among Russian media outlets, coupled with the message “don’t travel outside of Russia, it’s not safe.”
    4.In the span of the past 2 weeks IS has attacked both the French and the Russians (downing the MetroJet flight over Egypt). Apparently their terrorist threat is universal, and an alliance between Paris and Moscow in the war in Syria will be a logical consequence (BTW: allies don’t impose economic sanctions on one another).

    Incidentally, Russian MP and political analysts Sergey Markov (believed to have Putin’s ear) posted several messages on his FB page today calling upon France to now lead a “global anti-terrorist coalition, with the participation of the US and Russia, to crush the IS terrorist threat in Syria, Iraq and Lybia.” As an aside Markov urges the West to urgently end its conflict with Russia over Ukraine, to “replace the (Kyiv) junta with a technocratic government, rewrite (Ukraine’s) Constitution… The Kyiv junta is one of the main obstacles to joint action by the US, EU and Russia against terrorism.” No mention of Crimea – obviously.

    At the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi on 22 October 2015, Markov’s paradigm was formalized by Vladimir Putin, who reminded his audience that during his previous speech at the UN General Assembly on 28 September (3 days before the start of Russian aerial sorties in Syria), the Russian President called for the creation of a global anti-terrorist coalition, “but our American partners ignored this proposal.” According to Putin, the only way to ensure victory over Islamic terrorism is for the US, EU and Russia to view each other as allies against a common enemy. Furthermore (Markov’s words are clearly an echo of the boss’s thoughts): without the direct involvement of the US and Europe, finding a resolution to the conflict in the Donbas will not be possible – Kyiv is not prepared to change its constitution without external pressure.

    And so we return to the perennial question: what is Putin after? If only people would listen – he’s quite clear in his statements. Take the following quotes from the Russian President’s Valdai address (Oct 22, 2015):
    1.“Competition between states is a natural condition in geopolitics”
    2.“In the modern world, unipolarity is not healthy”
    3.“The US treats its European allies as one would treat vassals, punishing European companies for violating sanctions regime against Russia”
    4.“American strategists understand fully that their missile defense system (in Europe) is aimed at neutralizing the nuclear threat from Russia – i.e. at reducing the geopolitical power of Russia. This is precisely why we see this as a threat. If one country puts up a nuclear umbrella and protects itself against nuclear threats, then that country will be free to use its power to pursue its interests anywhere through any means.”
    5.“Russia and the West have different civilizational worldviews” (answer to question alluding to Huntingdon’s classic work). Apparently, the West is pragmatic whereas Russia’s “soul” is idealistic. And incidentally, “I don’t see the Russians and Ukrainians as separate peoples,” said Putin.

    From the above, one can deduce: a) Putin wants to return Russia to its “rightful” position as a global superpower – a balance/alternative to US global hegemony; b) Russia’s nuclear arsenal is a key instrument of the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions, and anything that threatens the perpetuation of the Cold War doctrine of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is seen as a direct threat to Russia’s geopolitical interests; c) In order to (re)establish Russia’s “rightful” place (and in order to formalize his “sphere of influence”), Putin craves a “new Yalta” – a meeting between the US and Russia (possibly with the participation of China) aimed at carving up the globe.

    During the Valdai discussion Putin (apparently) digressed from his prepared remarks during the Q&A, and recalled having recently read archived transcripts of conversations held in 1990 between a former leader of the German Social-Democrats and the Soviet leadership on the eve of unification. According to the Russian President, during the taped conversation, the German politician bemoaned the fact that the two sides had not “decided the fate of Europe” prior to unification, pointing out to his Soviet interlocutors that the lack of a deal between the new/old great powers would lead to continued conflict on the continent.
    Continued......

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    Part Two Continued.....

    Having watched a video of Putin’s performance at the Valdai Discussion Club 3 weeks ago, having then observed the extremely muted reaction to the bombing of Metrojet Flight 9268 over the Sinai Desert a mere 9 days later, and now having watched the Kremlin’s rapid response to the IS terrorist attacks on Paris, I am beginning to give some credence to the conspiracy theorists who would find a trace of the Russian President behind every recent incident of violence on or near the European continent. In Sochi, Putin ominously declared: “There’s one thing I learned in my youth on the streets of Leningrad: if a fight is unavoidable, one should hit first.” Is this exactly what he has been doing lately?

    Tonight, volunteers embedded with the Ukrainian Army’s 53rd brigade near Avdiyivka (the closest point on the front line to the city of Donetsk) report intense fighting with the use of heavy artillery by both sides – apparently Ukrainian forces quickly brought their equipment forward to the conflict line in response to an intense enemy attack on their defensive positions. Are the “separatists” simply taking advantage of the world being distracted by the Paris bombings, or are we witnessing an expansion of Russia’s theatre of operations. Putin can’t fight a war on two fronts (i.e. both in Syria and Ukraine) simultaneously, can he?

    In the long term (I am convinced), this question will matter little – except to historians. For those (like me) who believe World War Three began with the annexation of Crimea, and that it will end with the disintegration of Russia (along the lines of WWI beginning in the provincial city of Sarajevo, but resulting in the disintegration of the Habsburg Empire), the Paris bombings, tonight’s escalation in the Donbas, and the inevitable intensification of military action in Syria – inevitably to be followed by more IS bombings in the West in the future– are all events in a continuous narrative that humanity has been dragged into by a little madman in the Kremlin. Clearly IS is an autonomous actor in this war, but as was the case in previous global conflicts, adversarial lines are rarely two dimensional – Russia is an antagonist for whom the destruction of US hegemony and a weakened EU are means to its own perceived (re)assertion as a global actor, and for whom the use of IS terrorists as instruments for achieving these goals is an absolutely legitimate strategy of geopolitical realpolitik. For those of us in Europe this is a somewhat uncomfortable position. However, to seek comfort in an alliance with one’s ultimate enemy would clearly be shortsighted.

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    Default Paris attacks: This is a war of ideas

    A French commentary by a respected epert, Bruno Tertrais and the sub-title:
    The symbolic importance of the targets of Friday’s terror is clear. This was an assault on the values that France and its capital stand for
    He ends with:
    But the military component of the fight is only part of the picture. The war will be won at home. It is a war of ideas, which will get uglier in the coming weeks and months: this time Marine Le Pen may be better placed to capitalise on the current events than she was after the January attacks. The French government cannot ask every foreigner, every member of a minority, to be a Voltaire. But there is still a chance to save our model of integration and to be faithful to his ideals of tolerance and freedom.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...s-syria-france
    davidbfpo

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