Europe under strain: political extremism aspects

[Firn]

Scottish independence: Cameron, Clegg and Miliband make Scotland 'No' vote plea

It is quite possible the great recession is having a big impact on the Scottish referendum. Much of the economic policies of the current government have been terrible and of counter-productive austerity but this is, if painful and still relevant, old news. Simon Wren-Lewis offers an interesting perspective:

As far as I know there has been no compelling new evidence that has emerged between these two dates, so the obvious inference is that as people have become more exposed to the economic arguments, they have found the pro-independence side more convincing.

At one level this seems odd, because for me the evidence that Scotland will be worse off for at least the first decade of independence seems pretty clear. The fiscal position of an independent Scotland also looks worse, as the highly respected and impartial IFS explain. These views seem to be shared by a large majority of UK economists: here is the CFM survey of mainly academic economists selected for their macroeconomic expertise. Now this survey is more equivocal about whether the UK is right to rule out currency union, but again the general view is that in such a monetary union Scotland would face severe fiscal constraints.

I'm convinced by those arguments, but as Simon puts it a large share of the public doesn't seem to be or doesn't know those. For many the future seems to look brighter as nation. I mentioned during the discussion about the Crimean economy that severing the deep, intricate ties to Ukraine and attaching new ones will be painful for both Russian and the annexed territory. Now we won't seen anything that extreme for obvious reasons but at least in the short run a 'yes' would mean considerable economic stress and friction.

[Red Rat]

Despite the Scottish Government stating that a 'Yes' vote in the referendum in Scotland on 18 Sep would be a mandate to negotiate towards their vision Scotland's Future, most people I speak to who are canvassing for a Yes vote are unaware of the contents of this and hold their own (often irreconcilable) views as to what independence should look like.

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

[Firn]

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

Such tendencies might have been present in quite a few of fateful big decisions in nations and other entities with both good and bad outcomes in the longer term. Frankly I have little to no idea about the political realities around that referendum, however it is difficult to refute the points raised by UK academics about the economic one. They don't seem to get heared much, as it seems.

[davidbfpo]

The Scottish referendum has a long history and the nationalist (SNP) campaign initially appeared to be a further step to gain more devolved powers, then it became "we want out of the UK".

Nationalist aspirations are found in a number of European nations, some appear to be a residual, occassionally violent threat; Corsica for example. Or a popular cause that steadily gains power, not independence like in Catalonia. Not so far away is the Basque cause, which has been harmed IMHO by ETA's terrorism, but remains a potent non-violent cause for many. The UK of course has Northern Ireland! Independence is currently parked as an aspiration by popular agreement, except for a few "die-hards".

In the UK and maybe in other, established West European democracies there appears to be an increasing disconnect between the electorate and those in politics and government. Here that is shown in a steady decline in local and national elections. Plus a drammatic fall in political party membership and in the last twenty years trade union membership.

So yes there is pressure building. Economics do not necessarily dominate the public debate, although for social welfare reasons the under-employed or unemployed appear content to stay at home playing games on the TV, drinking, taking drugs and more.

[Firn]

Things change over time which is a bit of a truism. While it seems that the No will prevail it is rather useful to look at the Velvet Divorce, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia. The circumstances were quite different, of course, but is still of interest.

Many Czechs and Slovaks desired the continued existence of a federal Czechoslovakia. Some major Slovak parties, however, advocated a looser form of co-existence and the Slovak National Party complete independence and sovereignty. In the next years, political parties re-emerged, but Czech parties had little or no presence in Slovakia, and vice versa. In order to have a functional state, the government demanded continued control from Prague, while Slovaks continued to ask for decentralization.[1]

In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Vclav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimr Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Vclav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]

In many European cases more regional rights seem to be a fine enough long term solution but there are of course many variables. In Italy's case the minorities are all relatively small and a stronger autonomy with a somewhat higher public spending is rather affordable, even if some disagree.

[Firn]

I was pretty impressed by the Gordon Brown's speech at Maryhill. A very powerful rallying cry with mostly very sound arguments. So after he did more then his share in saving the British finance system and softening the blow for the British economy, for which he took a beating, he stepped up when his native nation was close to making a dangerous one...

[davidbfpo]

Although the furore over the massive flow of refugees from Syria and migrants from elsewhere has been reported upon, it is rare to see MSM report on the extreme right (XRW) and their hopes for 2016:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...o-Britain.html

I don't follow Czech politics, but when their President speaks at a XRW rally in Prague last month one must wonder what is happening:

The country’s President Milos Zeman, who is an outspoken critic of Islam, immigration and the EU. Six thousand people turned out in Prague to listen.