Europe under strain: political extremism aspects

[davidbfpo]

With mounting youth unemployment (21%) and the opportunity provided by local elections on Sunday - a protest has started in Madrid, small numbers yes (25k) and spread across the country.

BBC Report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13481592

Note the decisions by the constitutional court and the police declining to act.

The Daily Telegraph has a series of photos and an introductory text:

With tents, mattresses, a kitchen, a workshop and even a pharmacy, a protest camp in Madrid has grown into a real 'urban village' for thousands of young people. Under blue plastic tarpaulins, demonstrators have gathered in the landmark Puerta del Sol square in the centre of the Spanish capital,. Many of them have spent several days and nights there, to decry politicians who left Spain with a 21 per cent unemployment rate. Calling for "Real Democracy Now," the protests popularly known as M-15 began on May 15, lamenting Spain's economic crisis, politicians in general, and corruption.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pict...in-Madrid.html

Popular, public demonstrations and protests have a strong, recent tradition in Spain; for example the massive protests denouncing ETA violence and after the Madrid terrorist attacks.

Will be interesting to watch how this develops.

[davidbfpo]

The protests continues:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13481592 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13466977

A commentary that IMHO deserves reading, if perplexing:

It is perhaps surprising that Spain's youth has taken quite so long to come out onto the streets. Unemployment among 16 to 29-year-olds is estimated to be around 45%.

The jobless rate for the whole population is over 20% - the highest in Europe. And not only are they fed up with their economic situation, they are also calling for an end to domination of the political system by the two main parties.

There is something inevitable about economic crisis leading to protest.

The student demonstrations in Britain, the riots in Greece, and the union protests in France, Italy, and Belgium were all born of the same frustration.

Europe's leaders have chosen, to a greater or lesser extent, to ignore the voices on the streets. Believing instead that austerity is the way out of the economic crisis.

And, so far, the protests across Europe have not grown into anything big enough to force them to change tack.

[Fuchs]

Well, this 'may' sound being driven by prejudice, but among Germans, Southern European countries have a reputation for a large grey sector, to say the least.

Unemployment statistics are furthermore not comparable internationally, nor are they meaningful without much detail on the methodology and legal situation.


I'd say cut the figures by half and the impression is likely more accurate.

[davidbfpo]

There is a long running thread on the economic aspects of the EU 'EUCOM Economic Analysis - Part I' on:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...archid=3507454

Elsewhere we have debated the possibilities for a revolution in the USA and touched upon extremism too, nowhere is there a thread for the much heralded re-emergence of political extremism - mainly from the right - in Europe. So here is a new thread.

Not to overlook the post-Oslo killings thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=13830 and the murders in Germany:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=14532

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to ICSR's Insight article 'Who are Greece’s new fascists?' after the electoral success by Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn):

which gained 7% of the popular vote and 21 seats in parliament.

Golden Dawn is a fascist political party and a street movement with an occasionally violent history....Golden Dawn, therefore, is ingraining itself into the social fabric of the country and its success must not be written off as a temporary protest vote. Though its share of the vote remains small, its infrastructure and presence on the street is extensive.

This passage struck me as rather odd, particularly that such information was gained in exit polling:

Most disturbingly, exit polling shows that more than half of the country’s police officers voted for the party.

Link:http://icsr.info/publications/newsle...ewfascists.pdf

Surprisingly there is no mention of an active extreme left-wing, violent minority, who are not averse to attacking the centre left-led trade unions and of course the police - as seen in newsreel for months. IIRC the Greek Communist Party polled more votes than Golden Dawn.

[Firn]

Hat tip to ICSR's Insight article 'Who are Greece’s new fascists?' after the electoral success by Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn):

This passage struck me as rather odd, particularly that such information was gained in exit polling:

Link:http://icsr.info/publications/newsle...ewfascists.pdf

Surprisingly there is no mention of an active extreme left-wing, violent minority, who are not averse to attacking the centre left-led trade unions and of course the police - as seen in newsreel for months. IIRC the Greek Communist Party polled more votes than Golden Dawn.

It may be mostly just votes of protest, however such angry votes did quite often no good for a couple of European countries in the not so distant past. Political sanctions by the EU are not expected in this case after the blunders of the one try against Austria with his right-center government and the dire need to get to an solutions.

Personally I would rate the political situation in Hungary as the most critical, with a Viktor Orban and Fidesz trying the hold power by many means.

[Fuchs]

Hungary's government has definitely learned too much from Putin. I doubt that the spook will end soon.


The situation is very different in most other European countries. There are extremists only powerful (to some degree) thanks to a mix of mobilising the 5-10% dangerous assholes that every country has and addressing some at least somewhat legitimate concerns.

The former is rather unavoidable (best case is if said assholes split up between left and right), while the latter is evidence of a failure of established parties.
Don't be surprised by extremists if you allow some outrageous problems to linger for long while claiming that any complaints about them are either politically incorrect or otherwise illegitimate.
The failure of the established parties can be compensated much better than with a rise of stupid extremists, of course: Simply allow for the rise of a new party.
I'm really thankful for not living in an entrenched two-party system.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Fuchs

I'm really thankful for not living in an entrenched two-party system.

As compared to the successful multiparty system in Italy? The reality is democracy is hard to make work regardless of whether it is a two party or mulitiparty system, especially in times like this. Normally our two party system functions fairly well, but admittedly your word "entrenched" is currently correct. However, over the years we had different parties and it is possible a new party will rise and displace one of the current parties, or more parties will rise and displace both of them. We're not restricted to a two party system by law.

[davidbfpo]

Not the current Crimean crisis, but the far wider issues of political disengagement, primarily by the young, although also seen with nationalism / regionalism and the socio-economic factors.

There is an older thread 'Europe under strain: political extremism aspects' into which this could fit, but these factors are not unique to Europe and SWC has touched upon the domestic US application too - now awhile ago.

This thread is prompted by two new articles, one on Europe and another on the UK (after all I am British). Plus thanks to a "lurker" a series of displays of socio-economic factors.

Disengagement and this is the headline:

Why aren't Europe's young people rioting any more? Denied their dreams of education and jobs, young people have been sapped of rebellious energy. But their anger is growing

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...MCNEWEML6619I2

The displays /maps come under a headline:

Interactive map: Europe’s social polarisation and the generational struggle - what do indicators measuring poverty and inequality actually show?

It ends with:

Social pain has already undermined the citizens’ trust in the EU and their own governments. This could devitalize the acceptability of painful structural reforms and fiscal consolidation measures and, in turn, diminish the reform momentum or even lead to political instability.

Link:http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detai...onal-struggle/

The British economic and fiscal problem, one that has suddenly caught attention:

Selling UK Plc is the only way we can avoid a full-blown crisis. Overseas buyers should be thanked: they are bailing us out and financing our lifestyle

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...wn-crisis.html

[Fuchs]

Moderately.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...lance-of-trade


Deficits of about GBP 40 billion per year are only about half of the United States' trade balance deficit (in per capita).

The UK has rather a domestic economic structure problem; it still thinks that he leeching City of London special economic zone is more of a benefit than a drag as long as it leeches mostly on foreign economies.

And the tunnel was apparently not enough to help the UK in the markets for 'just in time' deliverable intermediate goods.

_____________
By the way; there's a major rally and protest march in my vicinity in but a few days. The topic is a civil rights topic.
We even have two new parties of note (below 5% nationally, though): Piratenpartei for the young people; copyright, anti-censorship et cetera and AfD for the rather conservative older people; anti-Euro currency zone

The political grassroots and protest movements aren't necessarily about the old topics (in 80's West Germany: anti-nuclear power, anti-Cold War and ultimately anti-DDR), but there's some activism.

[Firn]

Scottish independence: Cameron, Clegg and Miliband make Scotland 'No' vote plea

It is quite possible the great recession is having a big impact on the Scottish referendum. Much of the economic policies of the current government have been terrible and of counter-productive austerity but this is, if painful and still relevant, old news. Simon Wren-Lewis offers an interesting perspective:

As far as I know there has been no compelling new evidence that has emerged between these two dates, so the obvious inference is that as people have become more exposed to the economic arguments, they have found the pro-independence side more convincing.

At one level this seems odd, because for me the evidence that Scotland will be worse off for at least the first decade of independence seems pretty clear. The fiscal position of an independent Scotland also looks worse, as the highly respected and impartial IFS explain. These views seem to be shared by a large majority of UK economists: here is the CFM survey of mainly academic economists selected for their macroeconomic expertise. Now this survey is more equivocal about whether the UK is right to rule out currency union, but again the general view is that in such a monetary union Scotland would face severe fiscal constraints.

I'm convinced by those arguments, but as Simon puts it a large share of the public doesn't seem to be or doesn't know those. For many the future seems to look brighter as nation. I mentioned during the discussion about the Crimean economy that severing the deep, intricate ties to Ukraine and attaching new ones will be painful for both Russian and the annexed territory. Now we won't seen anything that extreme for obvious reasons but at least in the short run a 'yes' would mean considerable economic stress and friction.

[Red Rat]

Despite the Scottish Government stating that a 'Yes' vote in the referendum in Scotland on 18 Sep would be a mandate to negotiate towards their vision Scotland's Future, most people I speak to who are canvassing for a Yes vote are unaware of the contents of this and hold their own (often irreconcilable) views as to what independence should look like.

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

[Firn]

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

Such tendencies might have been present in quite a few of fateful big decisions in nations and other entities with both good and bad outcomes in the longer term. Frankly I have little to no idea about the political realities around that referendum, however it is difficult to refute the points raised by UK academics about the economic one. They don't seem to get heared much, as it seems.

[OUTLAW 09]

France's Le Pen fully supports Putin and Assad in Syria.........

The term for this is the Fascist Internationale:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/ne...idUSKBN13B230#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not believe Crimea...eastern Ukraine.....Syria...Brexit...and the US elections are not intertwined in the Russia non linear war with the US....

UKIP spent EU money on its #brexit campaign. Misused £400,000 in total, the Indy reports
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...a7422471.html#

AND former leader of UKIP visiting Trump before any major foreign leader does.....

[davidbfpo]

Hope not Hate is a UK-based advocacy group, some are critical of its stance, not just its opponents.

They have just published a 'special' (70 pgs) on the UK and European far right scene, with some pointers to Russian links:http://edition.pagesuite-professiona...6-4b6d6b344fd5

UKIP do feature, but as today's BBC News reports they have their own problems with a by-election:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38976044

We shall what the electorate @ Stoke think of UKIP's new leader when they vote. The constituency was strongly pro-Brexit and the sitting Labour MP has resigned, having been offered a better job.

[OUTLAW 09]

Latest "Trump affect" on European far right and or neo right populists seems to be doing them in not helping them...

France's Le Pen now behind going into the first round of voting which definitely means if confirmed she will lose in the second round...

Dutch far right party not even in position to threaten anything going into the election.

Danish populist party in the same position....not going anywhere

Italian far right was just in Moscow to sign something that they thought might help them..but their polling is weak ater the trip....

Germany...important...the neo/far right AfD were at a high in the polls of 12-13% now after five weeks of Trump and a neo Nazi party leader pro Hitler comments....THEY dropped to a 8-9% level...and still are sinking....

So maybe Europe should be thanking Trump and his merry band of neo rightists....for showing a bulk of European voters where the far right is heading....

[davidbfpo]

A commentary on how in the UK, under a Labour government in 2009-2010, there was a programme to counter the extreme right, by the minister involved. A few passages set the scene:

I learned a lot from Connecting Communities about engaging in the predominantly white, working class communities that are also typical of the ‘post industrial’ economy. I also understood more about why electoral support for Labour had tumbled since 1997 (even if those areas still elected Labour MPs and councilors).A gulf has opened between many people in post-industrial communities and many who genuinely want to stand in solidarity with them. We need to acknowledge this and understand why.
The starting point must be the recognition of the deep thread of powerlessness, of lacking a voice, of being ignored; and, equally important, the belief that others are always being heard first.

Link:http://www.theoptimisticpatriot.co.u...ing-to-england