What we support and defend

[Dayuhan]

It is prudent to be aware of what the other guy might do to you, otherwise you tend to get surprised. Being surprised is bad. Deterrence is about what the other guy is pretty sure you can do to him. If he thinks he can surprise you, and he will if you don't figure what he can possible do to you, he will figure that his surprise will vitiate your power and there goes your deterrence. Also generally doing to him means doing it with something. If you don't have the tools, you can't deter.

Are you suggesting that we don't have the tools to interdict the vast majority of Chinese merchandise exports and commodity imports without ever coming within their effective military range?

What if it doesn't? Then what? And doesn't being prepared for the eventuality help keep it from happening, like in the Cold War?

If it doesn't you make do with what you've got, which happens to be the best-funded military force in the world by a substantial margin, and which has regional allies with substantial capacity of their own. Look at the actual balance of military power. Add Japan, Korea, Taiwan and look again. Do you suggest that this equation invites Chinese aggression? Not even mentioning that the status quo is being reasonably kind to them and they've little reason to rock the boat.

We have drawn meaningful long term lines vis a vis Japan since the end of WWII and Taiwan since not too long after that. We have drawn a meaningful long term line about freedom of navigation, in cooperation with the Royal Navy, for much longer than that. I think you are wrong.

Ambiguity is mostly a recipe for uncertainty and that makes conflict more likely. It has its uses to a point though.

Those lines have always been to an extent ambiguous, as the Somali pirates well know. There's never any way to be certain of what level of infringement will draw a response. There really can't be a way, because what is needed to draw a response is a factor of domestic politics and even we can't predict those. The specific threats you want us to make are meaningless in any lasting sense; they accomplish nothing and can easily become a liability... which of course is why they won't be made, regardless of what we say here.

I don't buy that the Red Chinese propagandists are dependent upon the Americans saying the wrong thing then whoa! watch out all hell will break loose. Nor do I believe that their is some kind of domestic power struggle between the mean aggressive Red Chines military and the peace loving Party in which what the Americans say this week is going to tip the balance.

Not dependent, but any propaganda weapon we hand them will be used to the fullest. What have we to gain from handing them such weapons?

There are certainly domestic power struggles within China... not necessarily between anyone you'd classify as good guys or bad guys, but some are more compatible with our interests than others.

Ah yes, that old reliable "you arrogant Americans, now nobody likes you!" argument.

It's not an argument, it's a real-world perception that we have to deal with when we go about trying to rally allies, build coalitions, impose economic sanctions, etc.