ICG, 19 Dec 06: After Baker-Hamilton: What to Do in Iraq
...The exceptional convergence of interconnected Middle East crises, coupled with growing sectarian polarisation, is threatening to unleash a virtually unprecedented regional conflagration. While many international and regional actors privately acknowledge this possibility, their quasi- exclusive focus on the strategic competition between the U.S. and its Arab allies on the one hand and Iran, Syria and their allies on the other, is preventing them from taking collective action to stop the slide. Thus, the U.S. administration appears determined not to alter its approach toward Iran or Syria, convinced that any softening would only further embolden them. Likewise, Syrian officials, though privately conceding the grave risks posed by all-out civil war in Iraq and, possibly, Lebanon to the regime’s own stability, appear more interested in fending off U.S. threats than in preventing that outcome.

All in all, every actor remains engaged in policies that, whether in Iraq, Palestine, or Lebanon, threaten to ignite the final fuse. For now, Iraq – seen as the epicentre of, and the most significant prize in the struggle between two visions for the Middle East – stands at the centre of this regional tug-of-war. Its drama is fuelling regional tensions just as regional tensions in turn increasingly will fuel its civil war. Without a radical change in how the U.S. and regional actors deal with Iraq and with each other, the risks of a catastrophic result will rise exponentially.

Implementation of the various measures mapped out in this report is one last opportunity. It is at best a feeble hope, dependent on a fundamental shift among Iraqi political leaders who have been preoccupied with short term gain; on a radical rupture with past policies by a U.S. administration that has proved resistant to pragmatic change; on a significant alteration in relations between the U.S. and key regional countries that have been marked by deep mistrust and strategic competition; and on involvement by international actors that have warily watched from the sidelines. But it is the only hope to spare Iraq from an all-out disintegration, with catastrophic and devastating repercussions for all.