Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[CrowBat]

The matter with 'al-Qaida breaking with Syrian affiliate', aka ISIS (or Da'ash, as Syrians call it; this nick is supposedly making the ISIS Jihadists especially mad), is nothing new. Because of their attrocities and unpopularity between the population and outside, Zawahiri was in deep troubles with them since months, ordering them all the time out of Syria. They simply wouldn't listen...

But, I must wonder about Israeli figures. Together with a French chap, I've spent the last two weeks scrounging all possible sources of open source INT for details about 'foreign Jihadists' in Syria. One of conclusions was that - perhaps - it was so that up to some 12,000, perhaps even 15,000 ('overoptimistic' if I'm to ask) foreigners (non-Iraqis and non-Syrians) might have joined the ISIS inside Syria over the last year or so. But, many of them have left ever since, or were simply KIA, and a big part (at least 800) defected to join the JAN, recently.

Similarly, we couldn't find evidence but for about 7,000-8,000 'Jihadists' with the ISIS in Syria presently (including about 2,000 'Europeans'). Furthermore, and although it meanwhile enforced allegiance with various Syrian tribes, this organisation includes perhaps 500 Syrians (definitely less than 5% of its total force).

Obviously, such a small 'force' can't really control such huge swats of Syria as it does (namely from the town of Azzaz, and especially the thermal power plant east of Aleppo, all the way to Dayr az-Zawr). But, a part of this 'problem' is solved by their savage brutality against any kind of opposition.

Still, I understand this as an indication that there 'might' be more of them. The question is only: where? I.e. where have the Israelis found this ballance of 20,000+?

[davidbfpo]

Two reports on media reporting, one from Chatham House (UK) and the second from USIP (US), which reviews social media reporting - which I have not read.

Chatham House's report has some very pithy passages:

The ensuing conflict has become a ‘war without real people’ in the eyes of most westerners, who now regard the Syrian civil war as an Alien vs Predator-type contest, complete with severed heads, flayed skins and bitten hearts, in which Al-Qaeda competes with the regime as centre stage for Western fears. They seem to be winning. The regime, for all its ruthless and blood-soaked cruelty, is beginning to look the lesser of two evils in the eyes of foreign nations.

(Ends with) It would be an even greater shame if through the absence of independent reporting in Syria, we now choose to forget such people exist, normal Syrians, and believe instead the cardboard cut-out image of a war fought between rebel thugs, extremist hoods and regime goons.

Link:http://www.chathamhouse.org/publicat...BHZJVN,7UFSC,1

Link to USIP report:http://www.usip.org/publications/syr...ated-civil-war

[CrowBat]

Sad but true - even more so because monitoring developments in Syria on day-to-day basis can get a true 'popcorn cinema'.

Take the situation in Aleppo of the last few days:

Because of cease-fires agreed with several of insurgent pockets in Rif Dimashq area (Barzeh, Moadamiyeh), the regime was free to move significant reinforcements from there to Aleppo. After travelling via Kfar Nasser and al-Safira, these - including SSNP's Guard, Arab Guard, and of course all the possible Iranian-supported Hezbollahi militias - are usually converging on Nayrab AB/Aleppo IAP, from where they are pushing into eastern outskirts and the Old City of Aleppo. In this fashion they are attempting to cut off the FSA and Ahrar ash-Sham units that are hodling southern and eastern parts of this city. The corridor between the insurgent-held areas north of Aleppo and insurgents inside the city - held by the Liwa Tawhid Brigade - is meanwhile only 5km wide. And Liwa Tawhid has not only to stop this regime advance, but also attacks from the ISIS.

Namely, after securing much of NE Syria, a major ISIS force is trying to reach the NE Aleppo through an advance via al-Raay and Akhtarin. It was somewhere in this area that an ISIS column opened fire on a village populated by Syrian Turks, and then on Turkish border forces, to which the Turkish military responded with artillery and tank fire, and then with an air strike of its F-16s, which should have destroyed one ISIS pickup and a bus, on 2 February. But, because Turkish military operation remained limited, this advance had to be stopped on 3 Febraury by a counterattack of Kurdish Jabhat al-Akrad militia on Manbij (reminder: Jabhat al-Akrad is PYD's proxy, providing the excuse of 'Kurds fighting together with insurgents against the regime'; seems the PYD's standpoint is that one simply can never know about the outcome of this war...).

'Interestingly', the regime is ignoring the ISIS-held termal powerplant east of Aleppo, or ISIS advance from the NE, and the Jabhat al-Akrad, and 'instead' pushing towards north, from Naqharin on Sheikh Najjar Industrial City. Almost as 'thank you', the ISIS then car-bombed the HQs of the Tawhid Brigade and the Suqour ash-Sham Brigade in Aleppo, killing their COs and a number of high-ranking officers.

Here a video of NDF troops fighting inside Sallahaddin District of Aleppo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-6xlS-Es2E

Lt Gen Fahd Jassem Freij, Chief of Staff of Syrian Armed Forces visiting Aleppo, 31 January 2014:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPf9MfMdF5U

al-Manar TV with 'SyAA troops' (read: NDF or BPM) in Karam al-Qusayr, in Aleppo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv42wHdjlY0

Ahrar ash-Sham's T-55 in action outside Aleppo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgBqohJBGKc

IF's T-62 in action (outside Aleppo?):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwevOgBOb_8

FSyA T-55 fighting ISIS outside Aleppo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NT2DrJ4iQM

DIY-cannon attack on ZSU-23-4 outside Aleppo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPK19usv0Jk

Now, in order to ease their situation (i.e. streamline their frontlines and thus free additional forces), the IF, Ahrar ash-Sham (Anadan Brigade) and the JAN have decided to launch a new attack on Aleppo Central Prison (ACP), some 7km north of that city, on 4 February (the FSyA was apparently too busy fighting inside Aleppo). For this purpose, the JAN appears to have deployed the ex-ISIS group of about 800, led by Abu Sulayman al-Muhajir (a Belgian of Algerian origin) and Saifuallah ash-Shishani (Chechen, not to be mixed with the other Shishani). They loaded an 'armoured truck' with about 12,000kg of C-4 and Semtex and - supposedly - a Briton of Pakistani origin named Abu Suleiman al-Britani drove it against the main entrance of the ACP.

al-Britani's truck:


According to pro-regime sources, this truck was hit by some 6-7 RPG-rounds while still some 100m short of its objective, and blew up in a tremendous detonation - instantly killing two regime officers that were monitoring it through their bionculars. One of several videos of the aftermath:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y84bzUfsLKs

The attack on ACP failed, and the JAN suffered extensive losses. Regime claims at least 150 'militants' KIA and 100 WIA, but some of pro-regime sources are now praising 'the 6th Mechanized Armoured Division' for having killed 500 'rats', supposedly 'despite' the 'ISIS' being supported by 'British (intelligence) contractors', 'equivalent of the Green Berets' that hould have overhauled 'ISIS T-62 tanks' - driven by Chechens and Saudis.

By side that there is no (and there was never any) '6th Division' in Syria, whether 'mechanized' or 'armoured' (the ACP might be held by some survivors of the former 56th Armoured Brigade)...

But, to add salt to the injury of the JAN, in their reports like this one (see below), ISIS is now complaining about taking part in this operation but being left down by practically every (insurgent) organization:


Translation:

Peace be upon you,

Firstly, god is my witness, and me down in anger if i speak falsely.

Secondly, Abu Maria Maysara Al-Jabouri proposed to Sheikh Saifallah Al-Chechani that the state [ISIS] fight alongside the rebels in Aleppo, but he staunchly refused, may he rest in peace. His pledge to ISIS could have been, were it not for his preexisting pledge to Abu Uthman Doko Omarov Emir of the Caucasus. And from there began the secret, and God only knows.

Thirdly, when the attack began today, Sheikh Saifallah and Jaish Al-Muhajireen spearheaded the attack. The news of freeing the prison was released before that of Sheikh Saifallah's martyrdom, in order to emphasize the victory we, ISIS, played a hand in alongside our brother in the other combat groups in Kuwairis.

The attack was preceded by a message to Al-Muhissni indicating a powerful operation conducted by Al-Nusra and Ahrar [Al Sham] was underway.

Fourthly, when the attack had begun. the majority of the Ahrar [Al Sham] and [Liwa] Tawhid combat groups slowly withdrew from the flank, leaving their attacking brothers targets of accurate shelling/mortar fire from the Alawites... The majority of the martyrs belonged to the Jaish Al-Muhajireen and Saifallah's combat groups.

Lastly, I have nothing to say but that Abu Omar Al-Kuwaiti has returned and recovered, as with Al-Jabouri. If an attack is contrived, prepare yourselves, and know that in victory there is much good to be gained, that is something the lords of sedition [Rebels] do not realize. As for the death of Saifallah, he was a hinderence to their [insurgent] doomed conspiracy.

Oh lord my honor is credible, were i a liar, strike me.

Note: the Central Command of Liwa Al-Tawhid though it could take advantage of the conspiracy by paying its dues, so it executed many brothers in Talrifaat... They are a people of betrayal... One conspiracy is not enough. I saw the faces of those who did not acknowledge god's might.

So, the ISIS - which is only attacking Syrian insurgents - is boasting that it has led this assault on the ACP, although at the same time explaining it refused to particpate and was then left-down by the IF and Liwa Tawhid - and the regime is 'confirming' this...

This is better than if written by anybody in Hollywood.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ssad-forces-un

Syria children maimed and tortured

First point first

It was not clear what methodology for the findings was used and the summary of the report posted on the UN website did not say how investigators obtained their information.

Many more allegations in the article

While Assad's forces have used children as human shields in the fighting, the report also condemned rebels for "recruitment and use of children both in combat and support roles, as well as for conducting military operations".

Actual UN report/summary at this link, much more graphic depiction.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.as...=#.UvewW42YbIW

[CrowBat]

'Fan's of SSMS are going to like this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4fokVfd7mY

Looks like CBU-version of the (Iranian-made) Fateh-110 (Teshreen in Syrian military parlance).

...and discussion of regime's deployment of BM-30 MLRS by Brown Moses Blog (meanwhile, there are some good photos of entire BM-30 rounds, not only empty wreckage).

In other news:

- After Ibn Sultan has organized arms shipments worth about US$1 billion for the SF and SRF (two new coalitions of ex-FSA, moderate insurgents: Southern Front, presently doing very well around Dera'a, in southern Syria; and Syrian Revolutionary Front, created in Idlib from 14 different ex-FSA brigades), and because he apparently did so on his own (i.e. without any 'amens' from the DC), the King there said he's gotta go.

Sultan was replaced by king's son, Prince Mutaib Ibn Abdullah (former Minister of the SANG):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wveJ0ZbnMlQ

Simultaneously, after Idriss insisted on getting people from other political parties (but Qatar-supported Moslem Brotherhood) into the SNC and SMC - but also after his quarrels with Ma'arouf (wealthy businessman who is chief of SF, and supported by Saudis) - he was fired too, and replaced by Col Abdel-Illah al-Bashir (al-Noeim tribe) as new chief of (what is left of) FSyA:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gyl4Kay77ug

Otherwise, there are not too many true 'news' from the battlefields. In the north, the SRF and IF have attacked ISIS-held Azzaz (last Jihadist stronghold, 35km NW of Aleppo), but apparently failed to take it.

The regime exploited this opportunity to capture the village of Sheikh Najjar: some have misunderstood this with the capture of Sheikh Najjar Industrial City, NE of Aleppo (which would indeed be a massive blow for insurgents). Liwa al-Tawhid stopped them well outside the latter (thanks to another shipment of ATGMs).

In the south, the SF is very quiet about its advance on Khirbet Ghazala and Ghariyyat al-Gharbiyah, yesterday, where they cut the highway between Dera'a and Damascus and captured a major ammo depot too. Essentially, what's left of the regime garrison inside northern Dera'a is now cut off.

[davidbfpo]

A broad ranging review of the situation in Syria and the stance of the external players - of note excluding Israel - is provided by WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2014/02/the...state-of-play/

Yesterday on Twitter there was a new map of how Syria looks now, I will try to find a link and / or copy it here.

[Bill Moore]

We'll see if this agreement works, at this point Assad is no longer a legitimate leader for Syria, but still major questions on what happens if his regime falls. Iran and Russia will still support Assad to pursue their own interests as will Lebanese Hezbollah, so selectively providing arms and other aids to vetted insurgent groups may not be enough to turn the tide.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...14b_story.html

U.S., allies agree on standards for which opposition groups in Syria will receive aid

The United States and its principal European and Arab allies have agreed on a unified way of providing Syrian rebel groups with aid, classifying them into those who should receive arms supplies and other assistance, those who are ineligible because of clear extremist ties, and those whose eligibility requires further discussion, according to U.S. and allied officials.

“The idea is that no country will act unilaterally and all will abide by the same understanding,” said one Arab official. The official called the listing a “living document” that will be constantly updated as rebel alliances shift.