Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

**davidbfpo** · 08-21-2012

Although I have a reasonable mind map of Syria these maps really help, especially for showing regime supportive areas:http://www.understandingwar.org/pres...ing-insurgency

Or a BBC edition with less detail:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19285076

**davidbfpo** · 08-24-2012

First from a "lurker" familiar with the region:

The West is reading more than a local might into the current conflict in Tripoli. The bottom line is that perhaps too much of what is happening in Lebanon is being seen from the viewpoint of a western based position that sees Assad as bad, and the rebels (any rebels) as good. Labelling them this way may help to make it come true. But it does not mean that it is true in the first place.

Syria is still heading toward a Lebanese style civil war. This will not be to the benefit of “western” security.

Secondly Professor Paul Rogers writes an overview, which ends on an optimistic note re the new UN Mission:

For the moment, however, rhetoric still holds sway. A particularly bad example is the demand from western sources that the experienced Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi - the successor of Kofi Annan as United Nations-Arab League envoy in Syria - should agree that the regime gives up power. Brahimi, whose willingness to assume the task of mediation is one of the very few hopeful recent indicators, is far too able to accede to a course that would stymie his mission before it starts.

If Brahimi can engineer a provisional settlement, in the process building on private concerns in Washington and other capitals, that would create some hope of a genuine halt to Syria's descent. The best prospect now is a least-worse option, and even that could only be achieved against great odds. Without it, there is a real risk that the war in Syria could last years rather than months.

He makes a point on Syria's chemical weapons:

Syria decided on developing a chemical-weapon arsenal to counter Israel's unique nuclear capability, a choice reinforced in the wake of Israel's destruction of so many Syrian aircraft in Lebanon in the mid-1980s. The Syrian chemical force is thus configured with Israel in mind, but that does not diminish its potential for other uses if the Assad regime seems about to disintegrate.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...-and-diplomacy

**Bill Moore** · 08-25-2012

This Matt VanDyke fellow is an interesting character who obviously sports a large pair. I'm comfortable he is a freedom fighter (as least in his mind), but can't help to wonder if these activities are also supporting the Jihadists. Thoughts?

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012...ia-kickstarter

New Kickstarter Pitch: ‘Join the Syrian Uprising’

Their next project: go to Syria, an exceptionally dangerous place for journalists, activists or human beings in general. But they’re not exactly journalists or documentarians. Their Kickstarter pitch: “Two freedom fighters from the Libyan revolution join the Syrian uprising against Assad and capture it all on film.” Wait, what?

Is this a Kickstarter to crowdfund the revolution or to crowdfund a film about the revolution? VanDyke’s answer skirts the line. “The purpose of this project is to film in support of the rebels,” he tells Danger Room, “we do not anticipate participating in combat this time.”

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/...b-spr?ref=card

Interesting video, and you'll note on his website extensive use of social media.

http://www.matthewvandyke.com/

Under facts:

I gave 8 months of my life to the cause of freedom in Libya, including nearly 6 months in a Libyan prison. I served honorably and with dignity, giving everything I had to the cause. It is both distressing and appalling that after I returned to the United States I found Joel Simon attempting to tarnish my reputation and service with outright lies and distortions in his blog to cover up his own unprofessional conduct in my case in order to save his job as executive director at the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).

**Dayuhan** · 08-25-2012

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

This Matt VanDyke fellow is an interesting character who obviously sports a large pair. I'm comfortable he is a freedom fighter (as least in his mind), but can't help to wonder if these activities are also supporting the Jihadists. Thoughts?

He seems exceedingly fond of himself and his self-image, and I have to wonder whether the intent of the project is to promote the Syrian revolution or to promote Matt VanDyke.

**Bill Moore** · 08-25-2012

He seems exceedingly fond of himself and his self-image, and I have to wonder whether the intent of the project is to promote the Syrian revolution or to promote Matt VanDyke.

There are few wall flowers that are able to promote anything effectively. Admittedly some people are dragged kicking and screaming into the spot light, while others are trying to find ways to stay in the middle of it. Still it seems many successful people in the public sector have exceedingly large egos which may in fact be annoying, but I suspect that is also what gives them the drive to do what they do while others sit in on the side lines and criticize and claim it can't be done. Several senior military officers also carefully craft their imagine and you wonder what their priorities are sometime, but at the end of the day, at least to some extent this may be necessary. Still agree that those seeking fame are annoying and it does bring into question their motives, yet if their effective does it really matter?

**Dayuhan** · 08-25-2012

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

There are few wall flowers that are able to promote anything effectively. Admittedly some people are dragged kicking and screaming into the spot light, while others are trying to find ways to stay in the middle of it. Still it seems many successful people in the public sector have exceedingly large egos which may in fact be annoying, but I suspect that is also what gives them the drive to do what they do while others sit in on the side lines and criticize and claim it can't be done. Several senior military officers also carefully craft their imagine and you wonder what their priorities are sometime, but at the end of the day, at least to some extent this may be necessary. Still agree that those seeking fame are annoying and it does bring into question their motives, yet if their effective does it really matter?

I guess that depends on what they're effective at... at changing conditions on the ground, or at advancing their own careers.

I can identify with the plan to some extent; long ago in my deranged youth I attempted something very similar, and I'd readily admit that there were a few dreams of fame in the mix then. Of course I didn't become famous or change the world, possibly because I wasn't much good at self-promotion, though that was admittedly more difficult in the pre-internet world. At my current age I'd rather sit on the sidelines and... question, if not criticize.

I wouldn't say it couldn't be done, or even that it shouldn't be done, but I do suspect that the purpose - whether to advance a revolution or a career - is likely to have a great deal of influence on the final product. We shall see.

Still, the level of self-promotion on that site is to me well over the top. If he gets himself killed, well, that's his choice. Hope he doesn't get anyone else killed in the process.