Not by me, rather Professor Joshua Landis, a US academic and IIRC sometimes criticised here:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/yea...ecember-2014/?

He opens with:
Syria will become increasingly fragmented in 2015. The Somalia-ization of the country is inevitable so long as the international community degrades all centers of power in Syria and the opposition fails to unite.
I found it coherent and sadly realistic.