Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

A few selected quotes from the previous thread do help:

In April 2011, a true expert on the country, Patrick Seale had a short comment on FP and sub-titled:

Forget Libya. Washington should pay closer attention to the violent protests imperiling the Assad regime in Damascus. If there's one country where unrest could truly set the Middle East alight, it's Syria.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...yrian_timebomb

From an ICG report in July 2011:

Desperate to survive at all costs, Syria’s regime appears to be digging its grave. It did not have to be so. The protest movement is strong and getting stronger but yet to reach critical mass. Unlike toppled Arab leaders, President Bashar Assad enjoyed some genuine popularity. Many Syrians dread chaos and their nation’s fragmentation. But whatever opportunity the regime once possessed is being jeopardised by its actions. Brutal repression has overshadowed belated, half-hearted reform suggestions; Bashar has squandered credibility; his regime has lost much of the legitimacy derived from its foreign policy. The international community, largely from fear of the alternative to the status quo, waits and watches, eschewing for now direct involvement. That is the right policy, as there is little to gain and much to lose from a more interventionist approach, but not necessarily for the right reasons. The Syrian people have proved remarkably resistant to sectarian or divisive tendencies, defying regime prophecies of confessional strife and Islamisation. That does not guarantee a stable, democratic future. But is a good start that deserves recognition and support....

Link:http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...%20Suicide.pdf

In December 2011 a BBC reporter:

..the longer this goes on, the greater the chance that a once noble struggle for democracy on the streets will become an ugly sectarian conflict.

That will do as a "taster".

[davidbfpo]

I chose the word carefully and the question mark. partly the catalyst being the reported defection of the Syrian Prime Minister, who via a spokesman stated to the BBC:

I have defected from the terrorist, murderous regime and [am] joining the holy revolution

From The Daily Telegraph:

Riyad Hijab will have deserted as prime minister of Syria because he thinks that President Bashar al-Assad is bound to be overthrown. After four years as a provincial governor and cabinet minister, he is better placed to make that judgement than any foreign diplomat or outside observer. The real significance of Mr Hijab's defection is that it betrays the future expectations of a man who knows how Syrian politics work.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19160410 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...as-regime.html

Yes, the Prime Minister is not the real head of government, even more so when Syria is becoming a brutal, civil war and the men with weapons dominate. Some will note a similar pattern of high-level defections during the fall of Gadafy in Libya, not replicated elsewhere in the "Arab Spring".

[Tukhachevskii]

I chose the word carefully and the question mark. partly the catalyst being the reported defection of the Syrian Prime Minister, who via a spokesman stated to the BBC:

From The Daily Telegraph:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19160410 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...as-regime.html

Yes, the Prime Minister is not the real head of government, even more so when Syria is becoming a brutal, civil war and the men with weapons dominate. Some will note a similar pattern of high-level defections during the fall of Gadafy in Libya, not replicated elsewhere in the "Arab Spring".

It's one thing to defect and another to defect after being sacked. Furthermore, his references to a "holy revolution" may well reveal where his actual sympathies lie (he's a Sunni). The "defection" of Sunnis to the so-called FSA shouldn't be a surprise.

[Entropy]

"Crumbling" is a good word choice. The Assad regime still has a lot of power and advantages relative to the rebels, but the trends are heading down for Assad and IMO the regime's days are numbered.

[Surferbeetle]

My departing advice on how to save Syria, By Kofi Annan, August 2, 2012 4:52 pm, Financial Times, www.ft.com

While the Security Council is trapped in stalemate, so too is Syria. The government has attempted to suppress, through extreme violence, a popular and widespread movement that, after 40 years of dictatorship, has decided it can no longer be intimidated. The result has been an increasing loss of control on the ground, and the opposition has turned to its own military campaign to fight back. Yet, it remains unclear how the government can be brought down through force alone.

However there is also a political impasse. A mass movement, born in the demand for civil and political rights and the empowerment of voices for change, emerged in Syria after March 2011. But, for all the extraordinary courage that it took for the protesters to march each day in the face of escalating violence by the government, this did not become a movement that bridged Syria’s communal divisions. Opportunities to overcome this were then lost in increasing violence.

Military means alone will not end the crisis. Similarly, a political agenda that is neither inclusive nor comprehensive will fail. The distribution of force and the divisions in Syrian society are such that only a serious negotiated political transition can hope to end the repressive rule of the past and avoid a future descent into a vengeful sectarian war.

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

For Russia, China and Iran this means they must take concerted efforts to persuade Syria’s leadership to change course and embrace a political transition, realising the current government has lost all legitimacy. A first move by the government is vital, as its intransigence and refusal to implement the six-point peace plan has been the greatest obstacle to any peaceful political process, ensuring the distrust of the opposition in proposals for a negotiated transition.

For the US, UK, France, Turkey Saudi Arabia and Qatar this means pressing the opposition to embrace a fully inclusive political process – that will include communities and institutions currently associated with the government. This also means recognising that the future of Syria rises and falls on more than the fate of just one man.

Iranians Seized in Syria Include Military, Rebels Say, By Ladane Nasseri and Glen Carey , August 06, 2012 3:06 AM EDT, Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-in-syria.html

Syrian rebels said a group of people captured near Damascus included members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to a video broadcast by Al Arabiya, as fighting raged outside the capital and in Aleppo.

The claim contradicted Iranian descriptions of the abducted people as pilgrims. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Turkey and Qatar, which have backed the Syrian opposition, to help release the captives, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRNA said 48 pilgrims were abducted.

[Entropy]

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

Kofi is tilting at windmills.

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the possibilities I was surprised to read this sub-title on FP Blog:

Meet the Irish-Libyan commander giving Bashar al-Assad nightmares

SWC will know I like to spot kith & kin links and there is a thread on the theme:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8829

Quite an interesting story nevertheless:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...apon?page=full

It ends with the commander's comment, itself a warning about the previous issue of intervention:

The complexity of the situation here makes me feel like we were just playing games in Libya last year.