Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

The developing situation in Syria is an important strategic issue and SWC has been watching closely. We simply cannot observe only, so this new thread has been started to discuss what is happening now, not what might have happened if there had been external, coercive intervention.

The discussion on the previous thread 'Syria: a civil war' was vibrant for a long time, with over six hundred posts; alas the standard of the exchange repeatedly required Moderator action and it was closed a few days ago.

Link to previous thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12821

[davidbfpo]

A few selected quotes from the previous thread do help:

In April 2011, a true expert on the country, Patrick Seale had a short comment on FP and sub-titled:

Forget Libya. Washington should pay closer attention to the violent protests imperiling the Assad regime in Damascus. If there's one country where unrest could truly set the Middle East alight, it's Syria.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...yrian_timebomb

From an ICG report in July 2011:

Desperate to survive at all costs, Syria’s regime appears to be digging its grave. It did not have to be so. The protest movement is strong and getting stronger but yet to reach critical mass. Unlike toppled Arab leaders, President Bashar Assad enjoyed some genuine popularity. Many Syrians dread chaos and their nation’s fragmentation. But whatever opportunity the regime once possessed is being jeopardised by its actions. Brutal repression has overshadowed belated, half-hearted reform suggestions; Bashar has squandered credibility; his regime has lost much of the legitimacy derived from its foreign policy. The international community, largely from fear of the alternative to the status quo, waits and watches, eschewing for now direct involvement. That is the right policy, as there is little to gain and much to lose from a more interventionist approach, but not necessarily for the right reasons. The Syrian people have proved remarkably resistant to sectarian or divisive tendencies, defying regime prophecies of confessional strife and Islamisation. That does not guarantee a stable, democratic future. But is a good start that deserves recognition and support....

Link:http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...%20Suicide.pdf

In December 2011 a BBC reporter:

..the longer this goes on, the greater the chance that a once noble struggle for democracy on the streets will become an ugly sectarian conflict.

That will do as a "taster".

[davidbfpo]

I chose the word carefully and the question mark. partly the catalyst being the reported defection of the Syrian Prime Minister, who via a spokesman stated to the BBC:

I have defected from the terrorist, murderous regime and [am] joining the holy revolution

From The Daily Telegraph:

Riyad Hijab will have deserted as prime minister of Syria because he thinks that President Bashar al-Assad is bound to be overthrown. After four years as a provincial governor and cabinet minister, he is better placed to make that judgement than any foreign diplomat or outside observer. The real significance of Mr Hijab's defection is that it betrays the future expectations of a man who knows how Syrian politics work.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19160410 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...as-regime.html

Yes, the Prime Minister is not the real head of government, even more so when Syria is becoming a brutal, civil war and the men with weapons dominate. Some will note a similar pattern of high-level defections during the fall of Gadafy in Libya, not replicated elsewhere in the "Arab Spring".

[Tukhachevskii]

I chose the word carefully and the question mark. partly the catalyst being the reported defection of the Syrian Prime Minister, who via a spokesman stated to the BBC:

From The Daily Telegraph:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19160410 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...as-regime.html

Yes, the Prime Minister is not the real head of government, even more so when Syria is becoming a brutal, civil war and the men with weapons dominate. Some will note a similar pattern of high-level defections during the fall of Gadafy in Libya, not replicated elsewhere in the "Arab Spring".

It's one thing to defect and another to defect after being sacked. Furthermore, his references to a "holy revolution" may well reveal where his actual sympathies lie (he's a Sunni). The "defection" of Sunnis to the so-called FSA shouldn't be a surprise.

[Entropy]

"Crumbling" is a good word choice. The Assad regime still has a lot of power and advantages relative to the rebels, but the trends are heading down for Assad and IMO the regime's days are numbered.

[Surferbeetle]

My departing advice on how to save Syria, By Kofi Annan, August 2, 2012 4:52 pm, Financial Times, www.ft.com

While the Security Council is trapped in stalemate, so too is Syria. The government has attempted to suppress, through extreme violence, a popular and widespread movement that, after 40 years of dictatorship, has decided it can no longer be intimidated. The result has been an increasing loss of control on the ground, and the opposition has turned to its own military campaign to fight back. Yet, it remains unclear how the government can be brought down through force alone.

However there is also a political impasse. A mass movement, born in the demand for civil and political rights and the empowerment of voices for change, emerged in Syria after March 2011. But, for all the extraordinary courage that it took for the protesters to march each day in the face of escalating violence by the government, this did not become a movement that bridged Syria’s communal divisions. Opportunities to overcome this were then lost in increasing violence.

Military means alone will not end the crisis. Similarly, a political agenda that is neither inclusive nor comprehensive will fail. The distribution of force and the divisions in Syrian society are such that only a serious negotiated political transition can hope to end the repressive rule of the past and avoid a future descent into a vengeful sectarian war.

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

For Russia, China and Iran this means they must take concerted efforts to persuade Syria’s leadership to change course and embrace a political transition, realising the current government has lost all legitimacy. A first move by the government is vital, as its intransigence and refusal to implement the six-point peace plan has been the greatest obstacle to any peaceful political process, ensuring the distrust of the opposition in proposals for a negotiated transition.

For the US, UK, France, Turkey Saudi Arabia and Qatar this means pressing the opposition to embrace a fully inclusive political process – that will include communities and institutions currently associated with the government. This also means recognising that the future of Syria rises and falls on more than the fate of just one man.

Iranians Seized in Syria Include Military, Rebels Say, By Ladane Nasseri and Glen Carey , August 06, 2012 3:06 AM EDT, Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-in-syria.html

Syrian rebels said a group of people captured near Damascus included members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to a video broadcast by Al Arabiya, as fighting raged outside the capital and in Aleppo.

The claim contradicted Iranian descriptions of the abducted people as pilgrims. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Turkey and Qatar, which have backed the Syrian opposition, to help release the captives, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRNA said 48 pilgrims were abducted.

[Entropy]

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

Kofi is tilting at windmills.

[CWOT]

Yesterday, I started a 1- question poll reference the continually evolving situation in Syria.

Should the U.S. and Europe openly support the Syrian resistance?

What do you think? Vote here at this link if interested:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/ZRS5JDG

I'll post the results of all responses here later in the week.

[Dayuhan]

"Support" is a pretty broad word, the answers would be more revealing if the question were more specific.

"Support" as in verbal support, non-lethal material support, lethal material support, air support, boots on the ground? Big span there.

[davidbfpo]

I voted yesterday and added a comment to another discussion board:

We should acknowledge that the public in the West, especially in the USA, has a very short memory and is rarely patient for the "long haul". Today I listened on the BBC to a respected SME on Syria, who commented that the Assad regime could last far longer.

We are often told external, maybe Western help (lethal or non-lethal), is a "game changer" and will provide the "magic" to end a conflict quickly. With the recent exception of Libya, where the end result remains unclear, our help invariably last decades.

Are you prepared to help for years? Incidentally the USA, where most of this board's members reside, tried to help in the Lebanese Civil War, paying a high price and who ended that war - Syria. Makes you pause to think.

[davidbfpo]

Possibly the first use of chemical weapons @ Homs, on Sunday; hat tip to Enduring America:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...on-sunday.html

A private, US analytical company concluded:

While by no means certain and harkening back to caveats mentioned earlier, information on hand suggests that the chemical agent used to kill 7 in Homs, Syria, was likely Chlorine Gas, Cyanogen Chloride (CK) or Phosgene Gas (CG). This is a preliminary estimate that will likely change as more evidence comes in.

Full report:http://www.osen-hunter.com/images/os...ember%2024.pdf

Given the reported use of unusual explosive devices, such as naval mines, which suggests a measure of desperation and the known, historical capability to manufacture chemical weapons - is this a test of an improvised chemical weapon?

[bourbon]

Given the reported use of unusual explosive devices, such as naval mines, which suggests a measure of desperation and the known, historical capability to manufacture chemical weapons - is this a test of an improvised chemical weapon?

I imagine they would test such an improvised weapon first on dogs, prisoners and/or livestock first.

However, why bother crossing the CW threshold only to use improvised weapons - when presumably you have a mature chemical weapons program? No sense escalating to the use of chemical weapons only to use something that might work.


I am skeptical of claims by rebel groups in general; and especially on alert over Syria/CW claims, there are forces at play that would like to drag the US into another Middle Eastern conflict.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Enduring America, about Turkish working with an AQ affiliate and then using SOF detaining suspects in Syria (not yet noted by the BBC). Last week I noted Croatian weapons being flown to Jordan and onto the Syrian opposition; yes, "money talks" and Croatia today is different from during the Bosnian War.

This morning (0745hrs GMT):

Detentions in Border Bomb Attack. Turkish officials say they have detained five suspects --- four Syrians and one Turkish --- over last month's bomb at a border crossing that killed 14 people. Two of the detainees allegedly staged the attack, at the crossing to Turkey's Hatay Province, while the other three are accusing of aiding and abetting. Officials claims the suspects have revealed that they got paid $35,000 by people connected to Syria’s intelligence agency.

At 1600hrs GMT:

Turkish Special Forces Worked with Al Nusra. Hurriyet...to track down the perpetrators of a January car bombing at a border crossing. The second shocker is that the Turkish Special Forces actually entered Syria, using information acquired by the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al Nusra, in order to capture the suspects

Link:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...tyrs.html#1600

What next?

[bourbon]

The Guns of Zagreb. The XX Committee, March 10, 2013.

More answers appeared late this week, again in Jutarnji list, which fleshed out its earlier reporting with a lot more detail. It asserted that between November and February, seventy-five flights out of Pleso secretly brought an astonishing 3,000 tons of weaponry to the Syrian resistance. Much of the weaponry came from Croatian stocks, but some was taken from other European countries too, though which ones is not yet clear. Of greatest significance, the report claimed that the entire operation – which involved Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan, plus some help from the United Kingdom – was orchestrated by the Americans. Zagreb got involved when friends in Washington, DC asked them to. End of story.

[slapout9]

Link to CNN report of possible Air Strikes into Syria. Supposedly against chemical weapon sites.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/03/world/...ria/index.html

[Bill Moore]

Link to CNN report of possible Air Strikes into Syria. Supposedly against chemical weapon sites.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/03/world/...ria/index.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22409380

Israeli warplanes 'launch air strike inside Syria'

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...434558135.html

Israel confirms airstrike on Syria missiles

Israeli officials say air force hit a shipment of 'game changing' weapons in Syria bound for Hezbollah.

The officials said on Saturday the shipment was not of chemical arms, but of "game changing" weapons bound for the Lebanese Hezbollah group.

[Wyatt]

Its been interesting to watch the american reaction to the report by the UN stating that it may have been the rebels who were responsible for the release of sarin, if it happened at all.

The white house has serious doubts that the rebels could have done this since they are totally just some good down to earth guys

[Bill Moore]

Its been interesting to watch the american reaction to the report by the UN stating that it may have been the rebels who were responsible for the release of sarin, if it happened at all.

The white house has serious doubts that the rebels could have done this since they are totally just some good down to earth guys

It did seem odd that someone apparently pressured the UN to withdraw their accusation. The finding may be ultimately prove to be unfounded, but this administration is starting to show a trend of denial. Islamic terrorism is alive and well and the death of UBL simply means justice for those he murdered not the end of the conflict.

It would benefit both sides of this conflict to convince the world that their adversaries used chemical weapons, so I suspect the truth will be hard to pin down.

[davidbfpo]

A short CSIS commentary on Syrian air defences after the Israeli air strike last week:http://csis.org/publication/syrias-u...e-capabilities

[davidbfpo]

Reference Post 152 an alternative point of view:http://www.jihadica.com/jabhat-al-nu...ate/#more-1738