Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

This was a stand-alone thread, but today was merged into the main Syria thread. A caption has been added to each post in case they appear out of sequence (ends).


Today there are a number of reports that chemical weapons (CW) have been used in suburbs of Damascus, by the Bashir regime, known as rebel strongholds, specifically Eastern Ghouta. First a backgrounder, 36 pages, published in June 2013, by an acknowledged British academic expert via a German TV website:http://www.wdr.de/tv/monitor/sendung.../HSPOP_4_1.pdf

Yes the report has important caveats and takes time to read. It also refers to the external, mainly Western declaration of the use of CW as a political 'red line', which today is very, very blurred. Two passages struck me:

Two tentative conclusions are drawn. One is that the several governments which have explicitly accused the Syrian regime of using sarin nerve-gas against the rebels seem to be withholding evidence that, if disclosed, might make their charges more believable than they are. The gap in disclosure is not so much intelligence from sensitive sources or methods but is instead straightforward description for scientific audiences of the procedures that have been used for analysing physiological and environmental samples. The second conclusion is that, if the allegations are true, Syria is engaged in a form of chemical warfare whose purpose and therefore methods (small scale, pinpoint targeting, disabling) are at variance with concepts underpinning the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention

Much later:

The truth of the matter is nowhere near established yet. The present paper has shown that the reporting leaves far too many questions unanswered, and the possible dependence of at least some of the reporting on misunderstanding or on planted evidence cannot be excluded.

The second is a link to a compilation of ninety-six videos by Brown Moses; which a BBC reporter on Radio 4 says is unprecedented and wonders why CW is used when the UN inspection team is only ten miles away! I have not viewed any of them:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUGrW...CByvYG&index=1

Yes the existing main thread on Syria 'Syria under Bashir Assad: crumbling now?' has covered CW before, but today's reported attack warrants a new thread. Has the previous, small-scale use of CW weakened the declaration of a 'red line' as it is not WMD?

Truly a small, bloody war with new implications today far beyond Syria.