Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the possibilities I was surprised to read this sub-title on FP Blog:

Meet the Irish-Libyan commander giving Bashar al-Assad nightmares

SWC will know I like to spot kith & kin links and there is a thread on the theme:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8829

Quite an interesting story nevertheless:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...apon?page=full

It ends with the commander's comment, itself a warning about the previous issue of intervention:

The complexity of the situation here makes me feel like we were just playing games in Libya last year.

[Fuchs]

It's interesting how the rebels temporarily grabbed control of different patches of the country (or the cities).

I suspect this has disrupted the domestic intelligence capabilities to the degree that the regime was spiralling out of control of enough a share of the population to make the current overt mess possible.


What the Syrians (including the rebels) need right now the most is imho a domestic political push for a future without excessive payback against the Assad backers. This might swing the middle class to the rebels, reduce regime supporter's resolution and improve the prospect for a post-war period without mass emigration of minorities / much ethnic cleansing. A charismatic and formerly non-political celebrity could probably personify the push.

[davidbfpo]

A good place sometimes to find a commentary on today's situation, a review of four new books on Syria; which starts with:

Pity the modern dictator. Time was he could bump off a recalcitrant opposition figure, take out a dissident stronghold, massacre the entire population of a town and the world would be none the wiser. There might be a pesky reporter trying to get to the truth, but that could be taken care of, as President Assad’s security forces demonstrated earlier this year.

Yet the digital world has made it much harder to brush war crimes and atrocities under the kilim. Thanks to Youtube, Facebook and Twitter, surveillance states now find themselves under constant surveillance in turn. The spies are spied upon, lifting the lid — albeit only partially — on what is happening inside places like Syria. Factor in nosy- parkers like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, UN observer teams, ceasefire monitors and grandee envoys dropping by with television cameras, and the dictator bent on subduing a popular revolution with the gloves off has his work cut out these days.

Which ends with:

This quartet offers little in the way of optimism for Syria. Bleakness is the order of the day. Assad will not go quietly. The minorities are right to fear for the future. The fulcrum of Arab nationalism has become the site of a proxy war for influence between Sunni and Shia Islam. However soon he departs, whatever follows minority Alawite rule, it is surely difficult to predict anything but sectarian strife for years to come.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/issues/11...ttled-dystopia

[Entropy]

Prof Joshua Landis' prediction via the BBC:

Prof Landis argues that what is going on in the Kurdish north-east offers a useful pointer to President Assad's "Plan B" should his control over key cities like Damascus and Aleppo crumble.

He says that the "embattled president withdrew government forces from the north-east because he couldn't control it and wanted to focus on the most important battles in Aleppo and Damascus".

"But in the back of the president's mind, there may be the thought that empowering the Kurds is a way of weakening the Sunni Arab majority and underlining the risks of fragmentation should his government fall. It's a strategy of playing upon divisions to sow chaos," he said.

This way, says Prof Landis, "the Syrian Army - which is rapidly becoming an Alawite militia, whilst still the strongest military force - may lose control over large swathes of the country, but will remain a vital factor in determining the political outcome in Syria".

It is a bleak prospect.

Prof Landis asserts that President Assad "may lose Syria, but could still remain a player, and his Alawite minority will not be destroyed".

"That's the future of Syria," he says, with little enthusiasm. "It's what Lebanon was and what Iraq became."

I think that's the likely alternative to a complete Assad collapse.

[Surferbeetle]

Some insightful observations for your consideration; A conversation between Mr Charlie Rose (JD) and King Abdullah II of Jordan posted at Bloomberg TV on 8/8/2012

8/8: King Abdullah II of Jordan on Syria, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/8-8-k...3JmE~letg.html

Charlie Rose: King Abdullah II of Jordan on his country's role in the Middle East, the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and the ongoing conflict in Syria

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - The United States and its allies are discussing a worst-case scenario that could require tens of thousands of ground troops to go into Syria to secure chemical and biological weapons sites following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's government, according to U.S. and diplomatic officials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87G02420120817

[davidbfpo]

I cannot see how an external intervention to safeguard the Syrian state's stockpiles of chemical and other weapons can be separated from the wider context.

Perhaps an Arab League & UN intervention is an option for such a single purpose intervention. Finding willing participants will be a challenge and from memory the UN has found it hard to get competent military contingents, let alone move fast.

There are historical, regional examples when Western nations with small UN peacekeeping contingents moved quickly to intervene on agreed ceasefire lines when local and international agreement was present - that time is past (Canada & Scandinavian forces IIRC).

The most capable regional military power, Israel, has been very quiet on a post-Assad Syria and currently is reported as more concerned with the "far enemy" Iran.