Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[CrowBat]

Bill,
all this theory, guessing and speculation is not going to help anybody. One can't go demanding from some insurgents to do this or that like if they are a state: they are insurgents, not a state, otherwise they wouldn't be insurgents but the state. So, clean the table first (and the backyard too, then obviously the table is never going to get clean without the backyard getting cleaned), help the insurgents become a state and then demand things from them.

Though the idea with destabilizing the 'Assadist coalition' is a sound one (definitely a much better solution that launching a military intervention at least two years late and then in entirely wrong fashion... sigh... why is that Churchill's statement 'you can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they've tried everything else' - not leaving my mind today...). In three years of war, absolutely nothing has been done in this regards: opponents of the regime within Assad's 'very own' ranks are simply left on their own device... On the contrary, internet is full of BSPR thrown up by Assad fans, and they threw up so much... 'dirt', that even serious politicians have lost direction....

************

Whatever, now comes a wonderful illustration for how misguided this operation is. The US is bombing the Daesh now the third night in succession. Apparently, USAF B-1s, F-22s, F-15Es and F-16Cs, and USN's BGM-109s have manwhile been joined by RSAF F-15S' and UAEAF's F-16s. Surprise, surprise, the GCC decided to move their small finger, after all...

Saudi prince flew jet in Syria ISIL attacks

...The son of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince was among the pilots who carried out attacks against ISIL militants in northern Syria this week.

Photographs released by the official Saudi Press Agency yesterday showed eight Saudi air force pilots at an undisclosed location after returning from the mission.

The pilots included Prince Khaled bin Salman, son of Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

Dressed in flight suits, the beaming pilots posed for a group photo in front of a fighter jet parked in an airplane hanger. Two of the pilots were also seen sitting in a two-man fighter jet, and there were additional shots of the pilots examining helmets and other equipment in a dressing room.

The fighter jet was marked with the crossed swords ensign of the Royal Saudi Air Force.

“My sons, the pilots, fulfilled their obligation toward their religion, their homeland and their king,” SPA quoted Crown Prince Salman as saying.
...

UAE’s first female fighter pilot likely dropping bombs on ISIS militants in Syria

...Maj. Mariam Al Mansouri, 35, joined the United Arab Emirates' air force once the military branch accepted women. She graduated the academy in 2008 and now pilots an F-16 Block 60 fighter jet, likely among those taking part in the air strikes against Islamic State terrorists in Syria.

She’s raining bombs on terrorist thugs.

The first female pilot in the United Arab Emirates' air force is reportedly taking part in the coalition air strikes against ISIS militants hiding in Syria.
...

By all theoretical commonality of the deployed hardweare, it would be interesting to find out how did they sort out the control and the IFF: then this is anything but sorted out even between friendlies (i.e. USAF and the USN), and if somebody gets a nervous finger, or some SyAAF idiot runs in between all of them...

And now comes the bitter part: except for one of two B-1B-strikes during the first night (these have hit one of Daesh columns converging on the Kobane pocket), all that all these planes are hitting - are empty buildings. All the videos released by the CENTCOM so far are showing no outside movement, few vehicles around, and some show that no sentries were posted nearby. Reports indicate that majority of objectives were vacant:

Syria Rebels Say They Were Told of Airstrikes Against Islamic State

...Syrian opposition figures said the U.S. military informed them over the weekend that American airstrikes against Islamic State would begin this week, advising the Free Syrian Army to prepare its forces while a covert arming program run by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency provided fresh weapons.

The U.S. bombarded Islamic State-held towns and cities overnight Monday to provide support to the FSA and pave the way for the allied opposition to attempt to clear and hold territory held by the Islamist militants. So far, more than a dozen airstrikes have hit Islamic State military targets and administrative buildings in Aleppo and Raqqa provinces in the north as well as al Qaeda's official arm in the country, al Nusra Front in the northwestern city of Idlib, the opposition said.

A statement from the U.S. Central Command, which is spearheading the operation, confirmed the airstrikes in Raqqa and Aleppo and added that it also targeted Deir Ezzour province in eastern Syria, where Islamic State has been siphoning off oil and selling it on the black market to finance its operations. The statement made no mention of airstrikes targeting Nusra in Idlib,

But Islamic State had also been preparing for the airstrikes, moving its top leadership and most sophisticated weapons from Raqqa, residents said, after the U.S. announced earlier this month that it would target the extremist group in Syria.

Residents of Raqqa said they didn't know where the weapons and leadership were relocated to, but Monday's night's airstrikes hit at least four Islamic State military bases and an administrative building in the province. Raqqa is the only province that is fully controlled by Islamic State and serves as operational headquarters for the group.
...

So, more or less, this is all 'shock and awe' - all over again. Useless blasting of empty structures...

(to be continued...)

[CrowBat]

Throughout this time, the Daesh is attacking the Kobane pocket and has - according to Kurdish sources - reached a point only 5km outside this town, during the afternoon. And this after overrunning the local YPG HQ, as shown on this video (warning: GRAFFIC in some places!):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRLPs1L22cE

Coalition raids prompt ISIS advance on Syria Kurdish town

...ISIS has reinforced fighters who are battling Kurdish forces for control of a Syrian town at the border with Turkey, a redeployment triggered by U.S.-led air strikes on the group elsewhere, a Kurdish military official said.

Ocalan Iso, deputy leader of the Kurdish forces defending the town of Kobani at the Turkish border, said more ISIS fighters and tanks had arrived since the U.S.-led coalition began air strikes on the group on Tuesday.

"The number of their fighters has increased, the number of their tanks has increased since the bombardment of Raqqa," Iso told Reuters by telephone. He repeated calls for the U.S.-led coalition to expand its air strikes to ISIS positions near Kobani, which is also known as Ayn al-Arab.

"Kobani is in danger," he said.
...

So, the Kurds are crying for help, but all they've got so far is from the nearby pocket held by the FSyA (yes, there are two FSyA-held pockets north of Raqqa, no matter how much is this ignored by almost everybody), and from those Kurds that brought their families to the safety in Turkey, and then returned to fight the Daesh. Contrary to the extremists, though, neither the FSyA nor the YPG forces there have tanks and artillery: only RPGs and machine-guns.

Meanwhile, Twitter reports from this evening are indicating new waves of air strikes - but not in support of YPG/FSyA forces at Kobane: instead, those that 'know better' are blasting empty 'HQs' and 'storage sites' around Abu Kamal, Mayadin, and Markdah near Dayr az-Zawr...

This is making damn lots of sense. Especialy because the Daesh has withdrawn so many of its forces from this area, that its lines there are held by Arab tribes that used to fight for the FSyA already since 2011 (they nearly liberated all of Dayr az-Zawr in summer 2012), until they found themselves sandwiched between the regime and the Daesh (by the ISIS advance into their backs), then had all of their leaders killed by extremist suicide bombers - and were left without a choice but to submit themselves to the extremist command...

Congratulations to whoever is writing that frikkin' targeting list: this is reminding me of similar air strikes on Bagram AB back in October 2001, when somebody was so eager to spend several dozens of GBUs (the cheapest went at something like US$500.000) to blast rusty hulks of long-since abandoned MiG-15UTIs, MiG-17s and Il-28s at the local junkyard... while a look into one of old issues of the World Air Power Journal could've provided clear and undisputable evidence that such target selection is simply stupid.

[Bill Moore]

Crowbat

all this theory, guessing and speculation is not going to help anybody. One can't go demanding from some insurgents to do this or that like if they are a state: they are insurgents, not a state, otherwise they wouldn't be insurgents but the state. So, clean the table first (and the backyard too, then obviously the table is never going to get clean without the backyard getting cleaned), help the insurgents become a state and then demand things from them.

This approach will lead to a huge humanitarian disaster, if insurgents are just insurgents, then they're just thugs, and I don't think they're just thugs. They have a political agenda, unfortunately too many competing ones to be successful. We can help them establish a shadow government now and begin training/educating those who will need to fill critical positions to avoid a vacuum. I understand your point about cleaning the backyard, but they can and should begin the critical preparation work for the next phase. If they don't those with the plan like MB will take over.

[CrowBat]

Crowbat

This approach will lead to a huge humanitarian disaster, if insurgents are just insurgents, then they're just thugs, and I don't think they're just thugs.

Bill,
If 10 million of Syrian refugees (inside and outside the country), 400,000 dead (arguably, 'only' 200,000 of these 'confirmed'), and deployment of chemical weapons is no 'huge humanitarian disaster' already, I don't know what else might ever become one.

The insurgents haven't had any other political agenda except removal of the regime. It was Turkey, followed by the USA and the West (France, UK, Germany, etc., etc.) that began requesting from them to declare political agendas - even imposing ultimatums on then to do so. Even as of mid-2012, when they were assaulting Aleppo for the first time, insurgents continued attempting to avoid any such declarations. And thus they received no aid when there was time to provide it - and thus prevent the spread of extremism.

Instead, they were left to their own device - and exposed to extremists that arrived with pockets full of cash.

Then, in autumn 2012, there was something like a 'last ditch attempt' - a series of efforts by different parties to 'sort insurgents out'. The only result of this was friction between insurgents along all imaginable lines, precisely because of insistence upon their declarations of political agendas.

Syria is not functioning that way. Syrians do not think 'well in advance': grossly oversimplified, it can be said that 'they do and then think'. That might not sound 'logical' or even 'reasonable' to us, but that's the way they function.

Correspondingly, one can't demand (or, better said: one shouldn't have) from them to state political agendas before they remove the regime: that's begging for precisely the kind of trouble we've seen emerging there ever since.

Next point that should be kept in mind is this: Syria is never going to be something like 'unified political entity'. Syrians are traditionally diverse, not only in regards of their ethnic groups or religion, but especially in regards of their political interests. They are insistently (yet respectfully) 'pluralist' by their nature, history and tradition: 'insistently' because they insist on their own standpoints, 'respectfully' because - with few exceptions (see Jadid, Assad Sr. etc.) - they know to respect differing standpoints. This means: they'll always quarrel about politics. Always. Now, tomorrow, in 10 and in 100 years.

Therefore, there is absolutely no need to now go 'teaching' them about establishing shadow governments, filling critical positions etc. After three years of all sorts of failures in doing exactly this, I would say it is about the time to realize: this is NEVER going to work.

Again: they do not function that way.

This does not mean there would be some sort of 'political vacuum' and 'anarchy' if the insurgents would topple Assad 'tomorrow in the morning'. Syrians are very good at self-organizing themselves, even with bare minimum of resources (or none at all). Despite all they went through, they're reasonable too, and know to reconciliate. In that sense, some recommended 'viewing':

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al2fXeAvg38

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwSnyQYy5SE (Probably the best part is one guy's definition of 'moderate Islam' in this report)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FavaA3w6eXw

[CrowBat]

Kobane is about to fall: reports from late afternoon indicate the Daesh entering the town and the local CO of YPG forces announcing they'll fight to the last man.

Daesh is already posting videos like this one, showing them on the south-eastern entry into the town:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfJWgjj96-4

...while the US air is still blasting empty houses around Hassaka and the Tabqa AB...

[davidbfpo]

It is all very strange Crowbat and I've yet to spot an official explanation from the allies (the UK bombers are only for Iraqi targets).

We can all speculate. Notably is Turkey responsible, as it fears the Kurds as much as ISIS? Or a brutal calculation that pushing tens of thousands of Kurds from the Kobane pocket into Turkey, will bring Turkey in - to create a "safe zone". Incompetence is not a factor, although it appears there are no spotters on the ground to direct attacks.

[CrowBat]

It's extremely strange, indeed.

Firstly: 'allied air strikes'. Except for those official reports about four RSAF F-15S' flying a sortie against Syria, and a female UAEAF F-16E-pilot taking part too, from 23 September, all I've found so far was a brief 'news ticker' on the website of the Jordanian Ministry of Defence about involvement of the RJAF. Nothing has been said about number of sorties flown, though, and one of my contacts helping me with Arabic (my skills in that language are rather rudimentary) told me his understanding is that the RJAF's missions in question were actually 'flying recce over southern Iraq'...

Yesterday I caught a glimpse at some report on the AJE, about the 'allies' - that is five air forces including the QEAF (Qatari Mirage 2000s), RBAF (Bahraini F-16Cs), RJAF, RSAF, and the UAEAF (F-16Es) - flying a total of 23 sorties in all of the time between 23 and 30 September.

In words: twenty-three sorties in six days.

Haven't found any kind of written confirmation for this online yet, but must admit: I gave up trying after the first few days.

Overall, to me it appears as if Dempsey and Co were hard at trying to up-claim their participation, but the Gulf Arabs (and Jordanians) didn't actually do anything at all - except to provide bases.

And regarding Turkey: wherever I check this evening, conclusion is the same. Obama is purposedly scarifying Kobane for Turkey to get involved in a war, move in and establish a 'buffer zone' inside Syria, in turn providing an 'instant ground force' to fight the Daesh with support of US air power - stationed at Incirlik, for example (and, this evening the Turkish parliament voted for a law granting permission for military to act in Syria as necessary). Turkey would profit from such a situation too - because the fall of Kobane, followed by Turkish troops moving in to establish the buffer zone demanded so much by Istanbul in recent days, would prevent creation of a large Kurdish-held area inside NE Syria. I.e. should it come into being (something I doubt Obama is going to left happen that easily), the Kurdish statehood would be limited to what the Kurds hold in Iraq, and a small part of Hassaka Province in Syria.

Re. does Turkey fear Kurds as much as the Daesh: despite the fact that of candidates for Turkish presidency (and then the one with third highest number of voters) is a Kurd, Turkey is actually fearing Kurds more than the Daesh. Whether due to negligence or by design, it has left all possible Jihadists use it for entering Syria in the last two years. It has left the Daesh use local facilities (like hospitals) too. But, it has never left the YPG - which is de-facto Syrian off-shot of the PKK - to cross the border (into Turkey), get reinforcements or supplies: any YPG member trying to do that is immediately arrested.

Finally, regarding 'spotters on the ground': according to all reports, and with exception of arranging Allen's meeting with various leaders in Jordan the next week, the US admin didn't contact any of Syrian insurgent groups ever since announcing incoming air strikes, on 22 September. Washington is not communicating with insurgents, and that's it.

So, it might be no 'military incompetence', after all, rather political, but... well, they say that the way to hell is plastered with good intentions.

[Bill Moore]

It is all very strange Crowbat and I've yet to spot an official explanation from the allies (the UK bombers are only for Iraqi targets).

We can all speculate. Notably is Turkey responsible, as it fears the Kurds as much as ISIS? Or a brutal calculation that pushing tens of thousands of Kurds from the Kobane pocket into Turkey, will bring Turkey in - to create a "safe zone". Incompetence is not a factor, although it appears there are no spotters on the ground to direct attacks.

Not really an explanation, but a couple of days on the news (NPR) the Pentagon spokesman was getting grilled my the press on this issue and his explanation was stunning. He said they didn't have an agreement to defend Koran as though that was a satisfactory answer. I suspect Crowbar is right about Turkey having something to do with it.

We need remember there is a Kurdish nation even they don't have a state, so I see this explanation helping us Iraq since we're relying heavily on the Kurdish there. Those poor folks can't get a break.