Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[JMA]

CrowBat, thank you for your informative updates, much appreciated.

Since yesterday evening, there is a regime assault on Sheik Najjar Industrial City north of Aleppo. The involved force is said to consist of a mix of about two 'task forces' in size (something like 8 companies/2 battalions), with 20 T-55s and T-72s, supported by UAVs.

Note: this attack was launched by night. Given the 'history' of nocturnal attacks on insurgents in Syria by now, this - plus involvement of UAVs - is making it crystal clear who's in charge of that operation.

For those that might be wondering about what do the Syrians 'actually' think, here a very useful report, titled Aleppo Mapping Project.

My experience is that similar 'wild mix of reasons, motives etc.' can be found everywhere else around that country.

Also interesting, is this article from Israel, citing quite some Hezbollah losses in Syria so far: 350 KIA and about 1,000 WIA.

Some of latest rumours I've heard are even higher (about 450 KIA and more than 1,300 WIA).

Whatever, the point is that the Hezbollah has three small brigades deployed around Qalamoun Mountain Range (along the central part of the Lebanese-Syrian border), with two inside Syria and one inside Lebanon. Since none of these is larger than about 1,200 people, that's quite a chunk of losses they have suffered in about one year of fighting.

[davidbfpo]

Twitter is alive with confirmed reports that Abu Khaled al-Suri, senior Al-Qaeda & co-founder of Ahrar al-Sham, was killed today in Aleppo, in a suicide attack on his HQ - possibly by another Islamist faction ISIS.

Background brief:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...chief_repr.php

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating commentary on the Christian communities:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/chr...ynamics-syria/

It ends and this is just the first two passages:

Christian militia and political dynamics in Syria are by no means as simple as notions that all Christians side with the regime or look to the regime as their protector. As we have seen, sect affiliation and geography matter here, and divisions in alignments are particularly sharp in northeastern Syria.

However, one common thread is apparent: the rebel forces on the ground have overwhelmingly failed to attract Christian support for their cause, however many Christians may be in the opposition-in-exile. Christians on the ground look to the regime, Kurds or have formed their own independent groupings generally working with the latter while opposed to the regime, but they have not joined the various FSA-banner formations or other main rebel groupings in significant numbers.

[CrowBat]

The 'Syrian government' is supposedly advancing on Qunaitra, according to this report:

...The Syrian TV report, citing a military official, said troops and pro-government gunmen known as National Defense Forces captured the areas of Rasm al-Hour and Rasm al-Sad, south of the town of Quneitra. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory For Human Rights confirmed troops were on the offensive, adding that the air force was taking part in the attack.
...

Even the regime media is not talking about 'Army', but NDF now.

Meanwhile, Ahrar ash-Sham is assaulting the base of the former 61st (Independent) Brigade in Tel al-Jabiyeh, further south (this is the first time we've got to hear about this SyAA unit after nearly three years of that war; reason is that most of it defected in the meantime; indeed, a part of the 61st turned its weapons at elements of the 4th AD sent to crush its mutiny, in January 2012).

It's thus interesting to see that - concurrent with the 'regime offensives' into northern Aleppo and towards Qunaitra - a number of new entries for IRGC casualties in Syria can be found here (pages 119-122 of that thread).

BTW, the IDF is re-shuffling its units on cease-fire lines with Syria too. According to this report:

...The 36th Division had been stationed in the Golan Heights for 40 years, and its move away from the Syrian border is a historic military shift that will see it become an all-purpose wartime division, designed to be sent to any combat arena, such as Lebanon or Gaza, to support other divisions.

Replacing it will be the 210th Division, which since July has been training intensively to familiarize itself with the Syrian border, and mastering the IDF's intelligence and firepower capabilities that may be needed to deal with future threats from Syria.
...

While the 36th was stationed on the Golan for 40 years, it consisted of brigades and battalions drawn from other parts of Israel. On the contrary, the 210th is a reservist unit consisting of 'regional' brigades and battalions. Summary: contrary to rumours about the West, Israelis and Saudis planning to establish a NFZ over Syria, it seems the Israelis do not expect the civil war in Syria to spill over the cease-fire lines.

[JMA]

Came across this:

Analysis: Is Syria now a direct threat to the U.S.?

They're saying now that fighters are going to be trained in Syria and come back to the U.S.," he said. "We can't pretend that it doesn't have an impact on American national security interests."

[davidbfpo]

JMA,

The cited Reuters article brings nothing new on the issues around foreign fighters, although its American emphasis is different to what we see here.

There is a SWC thread 'Foreign fighters in Syria: a crime minus a motive?', where there are differences of opinion:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=19976

[CrowBat]

Few days ago 2-3 videos appeared on YouTube, showing British and French Jihadists (fighting in Aleppo for the JAN), stressing they'll not gonna go back.

So, some might go back, others not.

IMHO, it depends what faction in Syria they joined. If it's ISIS, then I wouldn't bet on them staying in Syria or not going to 'fight' somewhere else. If it's the JAN or Ahrar ash-Sham, they have no reason to go back, no matter what kind of links to AQ they might have.

Both of these organizations are run by native (Syrian) Salafists, not by Wahhabists. No matter how many are bunching them together or considering them 'the same', they are not the same. Although they're presently happily pocketing money from private sources in Saudi Arabia there remains plenty of antagonism between Syrian Salafists and Saudi Wahhabists. Of course, I've got no crystal ball or any sort of 'special abilities', but I expect sooner or later the relations between these two organizations and the AQ to end like those between the Libyan Salafists and AQ (concerns of that kind are probably the most likely reason for Zawahiri dropping the ISIS).

***********

BTW, the Saudi-supplied ATGMs are flooding the frontlines quite freely, and the last two days saw the NDF suffering heavy losses in armour (again). Here 'selected' examples...

In southern Syria, after capturing the base of the (former) 61st (Independent) Brigade, Ahrar ash-Sham should have overrun the base of the 90th (Independent) Brigade too, severing the Damascus-Quneitra road in the process. Here scenes from the base of the 61st:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf6PTsF0z7A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIiXHhyl4g

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fciwecz90w Not working 10th March.

RAK-12 crew in action against Tel Jabiya (61st's base):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqfKMH_w3B8

Regime launched a (supposedly) 'big' counteroffensive in direction of Qunaitra. Contrary to meanwhile standard practice from other parts of Syria, this was led by the conglomerate of native troops trained by the IRGC and coloquially designated the '4th Armoured Division' (read: NDF) and Iraqi Shi'a, and it run into major trouble when the Ahrar ash-Sham and SF began deploying Saudi-supplied ATGMs. This video is showing regime troops running away from Qunaitra area:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8yYAdiVS8U

Counterattack by NDF failed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ycPpHSo8QU

2 BMPs and 1 MBT knocked out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qQfbydT1u4

HJ-8 vs ZSU-23-4:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNxB46g75tc

**********

Dera'a:
Army base in Nawa overrun by SF, one T-72 knocked out in the process:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq5k-Y10JPU

HJ-8 hit another MBT:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqEzpGiy0tU

T-55 captured:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eskV8s9aoag

Hamza Asadullah Brigade (SF) attacking Inkhil, northern Dera'a:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dab-IpeMCNM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDi-H9zixAs

**************

Similar scenes from Qalamoun/Yabroud area, where Saudi-supplied ATGMs are used by the IF against NDF- ('4th AD' again) operated armour in support of Hezbollah offensive mentioned above:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXYtAFVThFQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjd7R7NhCr8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNFcrVekbYk

On ACIG.info forum we have a lad cross-checking all such evidence and counting regime losses. His last count (covering period between 9 May 2012 and 23 February 2014), ended at:

- 276 BMP destroyed and 107 captured by rebels = 383 BMP lost
- 441 tanks destroyed and 223 captured by rebels = 664 tanks lost
- 19 ZSU-23-4 destroyed and 25 captured by rebels = 44 ZSU-23-4 lost
- 7 2S1 destroyed and 11 captured by rebels = 18 2S1 lost

Makes one wonder what's going to be the 'up-to-date' figure after this week.