Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[JMA]

Erdogan Says Turkey Shot Down Syrian Warplane Near Border

“A Syrian plane violated our airspace,” Erdogan said during an election rally in Kocaeli province, east of Istanbul. “Turkish F-16s took off and shot it down.”

[davidbfpo]

An interesting backgrounder:

Hezbollah’s open intervention in its neighbour’s civil war has from the outset posed many questions and provoked not a little anxiety. What exactly are Hezbollah’s aims in Syria? In light of the reprisals that have been conducted by its Syrian foes and their sympathizers in areas sympathetic to the group or under its control, doesn’t it have more to lose than to gain? Finally, and in particular, does Hezbollah risk losing its popular base and its pre-eminence on the national level in Lebanon?

Link:http://www.lobelog.com/hezbollah-win...at-what-price/

There is an odd passage - my emphasis, perhaps an exaggeration:

..the first units were members of local self-defense forces that formed spontaneously in the increasingly conflicted zone along the border. Having never been precisely demarcated, the border between northeast Lebanon and Syria constitutes a large area that is home to some 30 villages actually inhabited by Lebanese — mainly Shiite — citizens, all of whom, however, are subject to Syrian sovereignty. Given their sectarian character, these villages were targeted early on by Sunni jihadi groups linked to the opposition.

[JMA]

In Syria, the United States is learning the lessons of inaction

He ends thus:

There are limits to U.S. power, which must be factored into policy choices. But a predisposition to passivity has costs — to U.S. interests, to nervous friends and allies and to the victims of ongoing atrocities. And these should be factored in as well.

[CrowBat]

An interesting backgrounder:

Link:http://www.lobelog.com/hezbollah-win...at-what-price/

There is an odd passage - my emphasis, perhaps an exaggeration:

The area is actually nicely demarcated already since the times of the French Mandate, 1920-1946. The French used to be very pedantic over such issues, so this rather sounds like first Hezbollah claims over specific parts of Syria.

The rest depends on what does he mean with 'early on'?

First Hezbollah units (few videos of them in action appeared on YouTube, back then) became involved in fighting insurgents already in early 2012, shortly after Zabadani (former HQ of the II Corps Syrian Army) became the first city in Syria liberated from Bashar's regime.

Strictly speaking, 'Civil War' as such was only some 6 months old at that time.

Problem is that around that time the JAN was still only in the process of being organized, and that this process was run inside southern suburbs of Damascus, about 40km away from the given area. And: that was 'only' some eight months before the ISIS entered Syria... which makes one wonder: what kind of 'Sunni jihadi groups' have they seen there...?

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BTW, the SyAAF jet fighter shot down by Turks two days ago was a MiG-23. Sub-variant remains unclear. The pilot, Thabet Abdo Ismail, ejected safely. He said that he was seven kilometres inside Syria when shot down: certainly enough, a Turkish TV team that filmed his downing from about 1km away was about 2km inside Turkey...

Anyway, 'air power enthusiasts' might find it interesting that this was already the second kill scored by the THK F-16s using AIM-9X Sidewinders (first was the Syrian Mi-17, shot down last year) - and the first AIM-9X-kill against a fighter jet, ever.

The area over which this MiG was shot down is a scene of an excellently prepared, high-profile, PR-operation launched by units from the Islamic Front and the JAN, with the aim of distracting the regime (and especially Maj Gen Suleimani) from ops in Qalamoun area, but also from the insurgent offensive that has overrun parts of NW Aleppo and pushed NDF forces out of the Sheikh Najjar Industrial City, NE of Aleppo, in turn putting the regime garrison of ACP under siege again. More importantly, this operation reportedly caused another quarrel between Bashar and Suleimani: for fourth time in less than one year, Suleimani was kind of 'overruled' by Bashar and had to stop one of his offensives in order to protect politically important targets. Reason: Bashar - or better said: his Alawi brethren - is seemingly finding it 'unacceptable' to lose any parts of Lattakiya Province. Could cost him the rest of their support.

Given he's meanwhile little else but an Iranian puppet, his countermanding of Suleimani's orders might soon cost him his head too (at least I hope so).

Back to Kasab: after the capture of Kasab border crossing, two days ago, this offensive into Lattakiya culminated with insurgents - supported by IF-operated T-55s - assaulting the nearby Hill 44 (with an important 'observation post') and reaching the sea. Yesterday, after receiving reinforcements that arrived all the way from Damascus and with strong support from the SyAAF (seems, they do dare flying over Kasab again; guess, the SyAAF moved one of its SA-17 sites into the zone), the NDF launched an all-out counterattack and supposedly overrun the insurgents. Combined reported casualties are meanwhile reaching about 600.

Suleimani is presently busy sorting out the mess created by the NDF and SSNP during their attacks into Moarek: this town is some 25km north of Hama, on the road to Ma'arat an-Numan, and some 10km south of Khan Sheikhoun. The latter town is held by the insurgents, but under siege by regime forces, which in turn are under siege by by insurgents... (typical Syrian story, I know), and it seems that Suleimani would like to either box the regime forces out of encirclement, or reinforce them and assault Khan Sheikhoun. But, because of Bashar's insistence on moving reinforcements to Lattakiya, and because of the lack of fuel... well, he could only deploy a part of forces necessary for this task (plus, he didn't manage to finish the insurgents in southern part of the Qalamoun range, where the 104th Brigade RGD is assaulting Rankus since 4 weeks, but didn't gain an inch of ground yet).

The NDF and SSNP are investing Moarek since about 25 days, and have lost a similar number of MBTs and IFVs, plus about 200 KIA/WIA in the process. Suleimani apparently dispatched his combined IRGC/Hezbollahi (Iraqi Shi'a) unit operating T-72s and BMP-2s of the former 105th Brigade RGD there.

Will be an interestin' battle...

[davidbfpo]

A short article in LRB by Prof. Peter Neumann, of Kings ICSR. It starts with:

Three years ago, it was hard to find anything significant about Syria in books about al-Qaida. Lawrence Wright’s The Looming Tower, which many consider the definitive history of al-Qaida, contains only five references, while Fawaz Gerges’s The Rise and Fall of al-Qaida mentions Syria just once, as the home of Osama bin Laden’s mother. Today, by contrast, Syria is widely – and correctly – seen as the cradle of a resurgent al-Qaida: a magnet for jihadist recruits, which offers the networks, skills and motivation needed to produce a new generation of terrorists. How did this happen? And why did it happen so quickly.

For Bashar al-Assad, the blame lies with outsiders – especially Turkey and the Gulf monarchies – who have used their money and influence to sponsor the uprising, arm the rebels and supply foreign recruits. This is certainly the case, but it’s only part of the story. In the years that preceded the uprising, Assad and his intelligence services took the view that jihad could be nurtured and manipulated to serve the Syrian government’s aims. It was then that foreign jihadists first entered the country and helped to build the structures and supply lines that are now being used to fight the government. To that extent Assad is fighting an enemy he helped to create.

Link:http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n07/peter-n...-collaborators

[CrowBat]

To that extent Assad is fighting an enemy he helped to create.

Halleluja. Blessed be Neumann.

Can't believe that somebody is finally stating this in the public.

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Reports from battlefields in Syria were 'funny' today. Well, kind of: I guess they were not the least funny for involved commanders, primarily not those on the regime side. IMHO, if Suleimani's hair wouldn't already be grey, it would've get that colour today.

Since two days YouTube is buzzing with videos showing spoils of insurgent offensive into NW and NE parts of the city (plus effects of another Saudi-supplied batch of ATGMs), such like these:

- 1 MBT ko in Sheikh Najjar IC (the NDF was forced to withdraw from this place):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDsLkKcC4cA

- 2 MBTs and a BMP captured in Aziza:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3MdJJhy3uo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3MdJJhy3uo

- Another T-55 captured:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIwrQSolYF4

If this goes on like this, and provided he might get enough fuel for such a manoeuvre, Suleimani might want to rush his IRGC/Hezbollahi force all the way north again. I'm surprised the NDF is doing that well in losing all that the Iranians gained for it in November and December: at earlier times, the Syrian Arab Army was kind of renowed for its staunch and relatively skillfull defence of well-fortified positions...

Now they can't do even that properly, and this despite training and leadership by the IRGC. Perhaps all the losses the NDF suffered so far are 'biting' after all...?

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Lattakiya
Pro-regime sources are all in delirium. Despite mass panic that broke out in Lattakiya (City) ever since the insurgent BM-21 attack on the local NDF HQ (which marked the start of the insurgent offensive on Kasab, and - apparently - killed two of Bashar's cousins including one of leading Shabihas), they are full of claims for hundreds of 'terrorists' killed in counterattacks on the latter town. Correspondingly, Kasab is under heavy artillery bombardment since yesterday. Reportedly, the regime is attempting to prevent insurgents from digging in; others say it is already in the process of 'softening' their positions before going in. SyAAF should be involved too, but there are no reports about specific sorties: just that there is 'relentless bombardment' of the place.

For their part, the insurgents are claiming to still be on advance: they should have captured Jabal Tshalma (highest point around Kasab), and Qasal Ma'af (supposedly killing 120 and capturing 25 regime troops in the process).

The regime meanwhile confirmed that it has lost 50 KIA in fighting there so far, SOHR puts the casualties at around '100 fighters on each side'.

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Hama
Still no breakthrough for Suleimani in Moarek, only videos documenting additional regime's armour losses, including 2 here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s_jEzksMQ8

...1 here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPE_TXOJR50

...plus 1 here (could be the same like one from a video showing four regime's T-55s knocked out two days ago):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNPTPEpdrsI

Videos taken in Khan Sheikhoun area, some 20 clicks further north, indicate the insurgents are in the process of breaking the regime's siege of that place. They have definitely overrun at least a battery of M54 guns (130mm) and captured several MBTs, including at least one T-72:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=117_1395865808

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Qalamoun
Regime is reporting the death of CO Qalamoun Military Council and that of the CO Liwa Saif al-Haq (IF), in Rankus. It's hard to gauge, but it seems this was some sort of 'special forces operation' launched by either the Hezbollah or (more likely) the IRGC, few days ago (probably around 22 March) with the aim of crushing insurgent resistance in this area.

Otherwise, the NDF has re-launched its attempts to capture the village of Falita, one of two last Syrian villages short of the Lebanese border. But, contrary to what was expected just a week ago, and despite all the delirious announcements by regime supporters, 'they' still didn't manage to push the withdrawing insurgents back to the Lebanese border...

Meanwhile, the insurgents in Rankus area are learning to drive T-72M1s...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gx7ciEvvzU

...and T-72AVs captured from the 104th Brigade RGD...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSi17FtVdj8

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Dera'a
After the fall of the so-called 'Silo Barrier', two days ago...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXrWkusgnVM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8nVzoXX2k

...it's a kind of 'roll over' there. See these two videos showing some 10 BMPs and 2 MBTs captured by insurgents:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xer5pPiUDQ0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUFv3TTjjdE

Outside that city, it's very much the same:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fexIUZYqDI

Gauging by the last known size of the regime's garrison in Dera'a (from about 2-3 months ago) - which was about 30 MBTs and BMP-1s in total, plus about 1,500 combatants - this means something like that the mechanized component of the force in question has been annihilated.

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Overall, the media is full of news from Kasab, while entirely ignoring events elsewhere. Unsurprisingly, various talking heads are therefore concluding that the regime is about to win this war.

In reality, my 'best guess', if you like, is that the situation is imposing a dilemma on Suleimani (and Bashar): let the NDF troops in Khan Sheikhoun get overrun or invest (and suffer even more) into a break-through at Moarek? Ignore all of this (accepting significant losses) and let Bashar cheer for achieving nothing in northern Lattakiya... or go and save Aleppo (again)? And how to finish off insurgents in Qalamoun, not to talk about what to do about Dera'a?

We'll see what the coming days (if not weeks) are going to bring. But, somehow, I doubt he's got enough troops and fuel for all of this. And doing it one by one is going to take months.

[JMA]

We'll see what the coming days (if not weeks) are going to bring. But, somehow, I doubt he's got enough troops and fuel for all of this. And doing it one by one is going to take months.

So right now an effective strike on Suleimani's HQ - taking him out - could tip the balance, yes?

[CrowBat]

Hard to say.

On one side, he's not the only highly-experienced IRGC general in Syria. Maj Gen Hamadani (former C-in-C Basiji Corps) is in charge of the NDF, and Brig Gen (possibly advanced to Maj Gen, recently) Jamali (former CO Kerman Security Council with extensive experience in fighting against Afghan and Pakistani drug dealers and asymmetric warfare), is in charge of the entire Syrian intelligence network (including the National Security Bureau, the Air Force Intelligence, the Military Intelligence Directorate/Department of Military Intelligence, General Intelligence Directorate and Political Security Directorate, which in turn are operating their own militias too).

Suleimani is actually under the command of Vahid Haganian, who is a link between Khamenei and the top of the IRGC (and thus the Failaq al-Quds/Quds Force): means, Suleimani has to do what Vahid tells him Khamenei said he should do (in systems of this kind, this is making Vahid more powerful than either, Suleimani or Khamenei).

So, 'technically', I doubt his loss would make that big difference. Nobody, no matter in what function or where, is 'irreplacable'.

But sure, Suleimani is in charge of the Quds force since 16 years and now has more than a year of experience from commanding the battlefield in Syria (and he, and his officers have really changed a lot, and are often making the difference). Except Bashar keeps on insisting on playing a biiiig general and continues countermanding Suleimani's orders through private calls to specific commanders in field Suleimani is generally accepted by Syrians (according to sources within regime forces, they have received the order that he is 'the second most important man in Syria and they should listen to every single of his orders, to the last dot and comma, no discussion, period'). Finally, no matter how important he might be in Tehran, he is simply _the_ power figure for plenty of people in the Middle East (especially so in Iraq, where everybody - including Maliki - is shuddering when Suleimani's name is mentioned).

Finally, it's certain that the insurgents would remove him, if they only could find him. They are meanwhile excelling at sniping, IEDing - even BM-21-ing - regime commanders (mind the BM-21 attack on NDF HQ in Lattakiya City, few days ago, in which two of Bashar's cousins were killed, two injured etc., or the sniping of Brig Gen Ahmed Mansour in Aleppo, yesterday).

I'm rather surprised the Israelis didn't target him yet, then they not only have the reasons and the means to find and track him: he should be their priority No.1 there (except it's in their interest for Suleimani to keep on resupplying Hezbollah and Palestinians in West Gaza with weapons 'made in Syria').