Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[Dayuhan]

My original narrow point regarding Russia was that Putinistan, a state with a lot of problems, punches above their weight because we ascribe to them power that they don't actually have. The above short list is a quite excellent illustration of the line of thinking that results in that.

My original point was that the Russians don't need to punch very hard, or to have much power, to make life difficult for any intervening power in Syria. Neither does Iran. Neither does Hezbollah. None of them are great superpowers, none of them can fight the US and win, all of them can and will make life miserable for anyone foolish enough to get bogged down in that particular quagmire. Worth noting that while the Russians are more than willing to offer material and ideological support to Assad, they don't want to put people in there either: they know where that would go, and they know that once entrenched it would be easy for their rivals to make their lives miserable.

One of the realities of quagmires is that once you're in one, your antagonists don't have to be great powers or heavyweight punchers to make your life difficult.

It's normal enough to be frustrated by the realities of American governance (democracy can be such a pain but if you're going to suggest that effective action would be possible with better leadership, you might consider clarifying what action you think would be effective and what you think those actions might achieve.

The US operates under a real constraint in Syria, the constraint being that the US electorate is in no mood to countenance another military adventure in the Muslim world, especially with no clear and immediate threat to US interests and no clear and achievable objective. I have yet to see any coherent argument against that position, and I think the US electorate is showing a good deal of sense.

PS: The "inside the Beltway" crowd is not exactly unaware that Europe would benefit from diversifying its energy sources, as evidenced here:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42405.pdf

Still, there's no reason to think that anything the US does on that score is going to change the Russian position on Syria, or act as an effective constraint on Russian action in Syria.

[JWing]

As the conflict in Syria has escalated, so has the involvement of foreign countries. Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and now the United States and England are all supporting one group or another in the war. Neighboring Iraq has also joined in the conflict. Every month there are reports about young Iraqis going to fight in Syria, usually organized by not only Shiite militant groups like the League of the Righteous or the Hezbollah Brigades, but also the country’s major political parties like the Sadrists and the Badr Organization. These organizations are now publicly acknowledging their losses in funerals and on the Internet. Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are also recruiting, arming, and funding Iraqis. To help explain this growing flow of men and material to Syria from Iraq is Phillip Smyth. Smyth works for the University of Maryland’s Institute for Advanced Computer Studies’ Lab for Computational Cultural Dynamics. He also writes the Hizballah Cavalcade which focuses on militant Shia organizations operating in Syria, their members, ideologies, arms, funerals, and other related topics for the Jihadology website.

continued

[davidbfpo]

A report from The Guardian, citing an official Russian statement and that:

Russia has been evacuating its citizens from Syria for weeks.

With an important caveat:

...the decision to remove defence ministry personnel did not include technical experts employed by the Syrian government to train its army to use Russian-issued weapons.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...ersonnel-syria

[davidbfpo]

An excellent explanation all the way from Australia's Lowy Institute. Oddly few parallels are made in the UK with Bosnia / FRY, when intervention is mentioned:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...ke-Bosnia.aspx

[pcmfr]

Things are confusing on the ground in Syria. Freelance UW campaigns make them much more so: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/po...JUpk%2Etwitter

It's difficult to see how the Agency is adequately vetting its surrogates with so many other parties in the mix.

[Bill Moore]

Not surprising but sad, are these the primates John McCain is pushing to provide support to? He claims we can vet them, during his "McCain's War" visit to Syria he was posing with a known kidnapper/terrorist (unknown to him at the time). Assayd may not be a friend of the U.S., but he kept house inside of Syria. Our nave politicians and diplomats somehow confused the Sunni uprising as a democratic movement of peace loving citizens. They weren't peace leaving citizens the last night they rose up, nor are they this time.

At the end of the article there is a link to a video of the priest being beheaded, and it is as disturbing as the article suggests, but still worth watching to capture the excitement in the crowd at this sick, murderous act.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013...res-and-cheer/

Catholic Priest Beheaded in Syria by Al-Qaeda-Linked Rebels as Men and Children Take Pictures and Cheer

Catholic Online is raising alarm that western nations are providing support to the rebels who have shown a proclivity toward persecuting Christians:

This should make it clear to Christians around the world what jihadists are about. Make no mistake. Catholics and Christians around the globe are under dire threat, particularly from the spread of militant Islam. Until the threat is recognized and taken seriously, martyrdoms like this will continue.

[Bill Moore]

Not surprising but sad, are these the primates John McCain is pushing to provide support to? He claims we can vet them, during his "McCain's War" visit to Syria he was posing with a known kidnapper/terrorist (unknown to him at the time). Assayd may not be a friend of the U.S., but he kept house inside of Syria. Our nave politicians and diplomats somehow confused the Sunni uprising as a democratic movement of peace loving citizens. They weren't peace leaving citizens the last night they rose up, nor are they this time.

At the end of the article there is a link to a video of the priest being beheaded, and it is as disturbing as the article suggests, but still worth watching to capture the excitement in the crowd at this sick, murderous act.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013...res-and-cheer/

Catholic Priest Beheaded in Syria by Al-Qaeda-Linked Rebels as Men and Children Take Pictures and Cheer

More recent reports refute that the Priest was beheaded, but he was murdered by Islamists. That leaves the question who were those beheaded?

http://www.aleteia.org/en/world/news...n-rome-2329002

Slain Syrian Priest Remembered at Mass in Rome
Fr. Francois Mourad was murdered by rebels

According to Vatican Radio, Fr. Pizzaballa explained that when Fr. Maroud tried to defend the sisters and others from the rebels, he was shot and killed.

A few days later, a video was posted on YouTube, and shortly thereafter on Live Leak, showing three men being beheaded. Those posting the video claimed that one of them was Fr. Mourad.

The claim has since spread, having been picked up by various other media outlets later in the week.

However, a reliable Vatican source told CNA July 2 that reports of the priest being killed by beheading are “false.”

[carl]

From Catholic Online:

This should make it clear to Christians around the world what jihadists are about. Make no mistake. Catholics and Christians around the globe are under dire threat, particularly from the spread of militant Islam. Until the threat is recognized and taken seriously, martyrdoms like this will continue.

This is happening in a lot of places, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt. Given the ideology it can't be stopped. So what to do? Maybe we could give special visas or something like that. They sure would be grateful and grateful people I suspect make pretty good citizens.

[Bill Moore]

Things are confusing on the ground in Syria. Freelance UW campaigns make them much more so: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/po...JUpk%2Etwitter

It's difficult to see how the Agency is adequately vetting its surrogates with so many other parties in the mix.

This is a good find, thanks for sharing.

Islamists Auction Off Cars to Buy Heat Seeking Missiles for Syrian Rebels

A group of hard-line Islamists in Kuwait raised enough cash to arm 12,000 Syrian rebels this week, according to statements by the group's leaders. The next step: flood the country with guided missiles, heat-seeking missiles and tandem warheads.

With friends like this........

We can't control any of this, we opened Pandora's box when we removed Saddam with no real plan for what would follow.

Not the most popular man in American politics, but Richard Clark got it right in his book, "The Scorpion's Gate."

[Dayuhan]

The next step: flood the country with guided missiles, heat-seeking missiles and tandem warheads.

Are these weapons really that readily available? Obviously cash isn't a major constraint. If anyone who can auction a few cars can pick up a MANPADS, it's odd that more of them haven't been used for terrorist purposes.