Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[carl]

A manufacturing industry official in Russia apparently indicated that the SA-24s in Libya are not MANPAD capable.

SA-7 to -14 weapons adrift in the world are not a threat unique to Libya. There were literally thousands of the all over the place in Iraq, and it was not uncommon to find missiles, batteries, and trigger units lying around. The opportunity to seize these weapons was incredibly high in 2003, and although many of them probably were, I'm not so sure they had more than a minimal impact on the remaining 8 years of our presence. Analysts are getting lathered up about Libyan SAMs, but I suspect the true impact in the region and the world will be just about as limited as it was in the wake of Iraq' collapse.

They may or may not be capable of being fired from the shoulder as of this moment. Iranian engineers are pretty capable. But whether they are or not is immaterial to the degree of threat that they pose. They can be fired from the back of a pickup truck, and those can get just about anywhere. The guys who fire the missiles from the shoulder, I would guess, drive to their firing point in a pickup truck.

SA-7s and SA-14s are not SA-18s which are not SA-24s. Comparing an SA-7 to a SA-24 is sort of like comparing a Brown Bess to a Bren Gun. SA-7s and 14s has resulted in what we have had which we have been obviously able to live with. We don't know if we can live with the 24s yet. It is the top of the line Russki small anti-aircraft missile. We would be very worried if the latest iteration of the Stinger got out. This is maybe the same.

These missiles getting out is a very big deal. The threat is not only the immediate one posed by the missiles themselves. They will be reverse engineered by Iran and Red China and maybe even the North Koreans and Pakistan. This is not a good thing for the future.