Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[AdamG]

INSIGHT: How Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?

The regime could use chemical weapons in a variety of ways, from a limited or demonstration attack to large-scale offensive or defensive use to fundamentally change the military situation. At present, reports that the regime is weaponizing relatively small quantities of agent suggest the former. Limited CW use could be controlled better in terms of effects and visibility. The regime might also find it easier to explain away small-scale strikes as the work of “terrorists” or as a justifiable response to the military situation and the threat to the country.

Read more at Middle East Voices: http://middleeastvoices.voanews.com/...#ixzz2EVZojZ2l

[AdamG]

Western intelligence agencies observed Syrian units making advanced preparations for the potential use of chemical weapons, including loading trucks with ready-to-use bombs and shells, prompting President Obama last week to warn Syria against using the banned munitions, according to Western and Middle Eastern officials.

Soldiers at one Syrian base were monitored mixing precursors for chemical weapons and taking other steps to ready the lethal munitions for battlefield use, the officials said. It was the first hard evidence that Syria was moving toward possible activation of its vast arsenal of chemical weapons, which includes nerve gas and other poisons.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...532_story.html

[davidbfpo]

A week ago I posted:

when will we see Scud SSM being used?

Yesterday in my catching up on the news I noted a report that Scuds had been launched from Damascus to hit targets to the north (sorry lost link, probably FP).

Given local sensitivities around Scuds I wonder if Syria reassures Israel in particular that a launch will occur and indicate the target area?

[davidbfpo]

A dissenting article in The Independent by Patrick Cockburn, that set off a flurry of critical Tweets about his accusation that the media were giving a slanted view of what was happening. The bigger story was how a YouTube video was strengthening the Bashir regime; the video is not linked, no doubt due to being horrific.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...r-8420309.html

[davidbfpo]

Russian military advisers are manning some of Syria's more sophisticated air defences – something that would complicate any future US-led intervention...The advisers have been deployed with new surface-to-air systems and upgrades of old systems, which Moscow has supplied to the Assad regime since the Syrian revolution broke out 21 months ago.

(Later) The upgrades were supplied by Moscow, which sees them as a bulwark against western-imposed regime change and protection of a longstanding investment in Syria. The country includes Russia's biggest electronic eavesdropping post outside its territory, in Latakia, and its toehold on the Mediterranean, a small naval base at Tartus.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...nce?CMP=twt_fd

Some interesting points, I'm puzzled that no mention IIRC has been made of the ELINT post before. Given the reported lack of regime manpower aqnd apparent desperation one wonders if the air defence network is fully manned.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Professor Paul Rogers for directing attention to this short, detailed assessment of the options on Syria's chemical weapons in mid-December 2012:http://www.natowatch.org/node/835 and the original WINEP paper from July 2012:http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/p...litary-options

Citing an ex-DoD intell analyst:

There are a whole bunch of really bad options here....Sitting back and pushing him not to use them, I think, is the best.

Paul Rogers column ends with:

...more likely that if any action were to be taken against Syrian chemical weapons, Israel would take the decisive action. The Israelis' concern to protect their security, including a determination to prevent radical Islamist groups acquiring weapons of mass destruction, make their position clearer than the US's..... Moreover, Israel's security commitment is so fundamental that it would almost certainly have a lower threshold of “collateral damage” for Syrian civilians than the US.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...ns-vs-politics

[davidbfpo]

A leaked US Embassy (Istanbul) report on the alleged use of a chemical weapon is on Twitter, but not in the UK media so far:http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/po..._used_in_syria

Experts say the symptoms match the effects of Agent 15, known also by its NATO code BZ, which is a CX-level incapacitating agent that is controlled under schedule 2 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Syria is not a party.

One comment suggested BZ / CX was similar to Mace. CDC says:

BZ toxicity, which might occur by inhalation, ingestion, or skin absorption, is an anticholinergic syndrome consisting of a combination of signs and symptoms that might include hallucinations; agitation; mydriasis (dilated pupils); blurred vision; dry, flushed skin; urinary retention; ileus; tachycardia; hypertension; and elevated temperature (>101ºF).

Link:http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/bz/casedef.asp