Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[Tukhachevskii]

I chose the word carefully and the question mark. partly the catalyst being the reported defection of the Syrian Prime Minister, who via a spokesman stated to the BBC:

From The Daily Telegraph:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19160410 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...as-regime.html

Yes, the Prime Minister is not the real head of government, even more so when Syria is becoming a brutal, civil war and the men with weapons dominate. Some will note a similar pattern of high-level defections during the fall of Gadafy in Libya, not replicated elsewhere in the "Arab Spring".

It's one thing to defect and another to defect after being sacked. Furthermore, his references to a "holy revolution" may well reveal where his actual sympathies lie (he's a Sunni). The "defection" of Sunnis to the so-called FSA shouldn't be a surprise.

[Entropy]

"Crumbling" is a good word choice. The Assad regime still has a lot of power and advantages relative to the rebels, but the trends are heading down for Assad and IMO the regime's days are numbered.

[Surferbeetle]

My departing advice on how to save Syria, By Kofi Annan, August 2, 2012 4:52 pm, Financial Times, www.ft.com

While the Security Council is trapped in stalemate, so too is Syria. The government has attempted to suppress, through extreme violence, a popular and widespread movement that, after 40 years of dictatorship, has decided it can no longer be intimidated. The result has been an increasing loss of control on the ground, and the opposition has turned to its own military campaign to fight back. Yet, it remains unclear how the government can be brought down through force alone.

However there is also a political impasse. A mass movement, born in the demand for civil and political rights and the empowerment of voices for change, emerged in Syria after March 2011. But, for all the extraordinary courage that it took for the protesters to march each day in the face of escalating violence by the government, this did not become a movement that bridged Syria’s communal divisions. Opportunities to overcome this were then lost in increasing violence.

Military means alone will not end the crisis. Similarly, a political agenda that is neither inclusive nor comprehensive will fail. The distribution of force and the divisions in Syrian society are such that only a serious negotiated political transition can hope to end the repressive rule of the past and avoid a future descent into a vengeful sectarian war.

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

For Russia, China and Iran this means they must take concerted efforts to persuade Syria’s leadership to change course and embrace a political transition, realising the current government has lost all legitimacy. A first move by the government is vital, as its intransigence and refusal to implement the six-point peace plan has been the greatest obstacle to any peaceful political process, ensuring the distrust of the opposition in proposals for a negotiated transition.

For the US, UK, France, Turkey Saudi Arabia and Qatar this means pressing the opposition to embrace a fully inclusive political process – that will include communities and institutions currently associated with the government. This also means recognising that the future of Syria rises and falls on more than the fate of just one man.

Iranians Seized in Syria Include Military, Rebels Say, By Ladane Nasseri and Glen Carey , August 06, 2012 3:06 AM EDT, Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-in-syria.html

Syrian rebels said a group of people captured near Damascus included members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to a video broadcast by Al Arabiya, as fighting raged outside the capital and in Aleppo.

The claim contradicted Iranian descriptions of the abducted people as pilgrims. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Turkey and Qatar, which have backed the Syrian opposition, to help release the captives, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRNA said 48 pilgrims were abducted.

[Entropy]

There are clear common interests among the regional and international powers in a managed political transition. A conflagration threatens an explosion in the region that could affect the rest of the world. But it takes leadership to compromise to overcome the destructive lure of national rivalries. Joint action requires bilateral and collective efforts by all countries with influence over the actors on the ground in Syria, to press upon the parties that a political solution is essential.

Kofi is tilting at windmills.

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the possibilities I was surprised to read this sub-title on FP Blog:

Meet the Irish-Libyan commander giving Bashar al-Assad nightmares

SWC will know I like to spot kith & kin links and there is a thread on the theme:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8829

Quite an interesting story nevertheless:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...apon?page=full

It ends with the commander's comment, itself a warning about the previous issue of intervention:

The complexity of the situation here makes me feel like we were just playing games in Libya last year.

[Fuchs]

It's interesting how the rebels temporarily grabbed control of different patches of the country (or the cities).

I suspect this has disrupted the domestic intelligence capabilities to the degree that the regime was spiralling out of control of enough a share of the population to make the current overt mess possible.


What the Syrians (including the rebels) need right now the most is imho a domestic political push for a future without excessive payback against the Assad backers. This might swing the middle class to the rebels, reduce regime supporter's resolution and improve the prospect for a post-war period without mass emigration of minorities / much ethnic cleansing. A charismatic and formerly non-political celebrity could probably personify the push.

[davidbfpo]

A good place sometimes to find a commentary on today's situation, a review of four new books on Syria; which starts with:

Pity the modern dictator. Time was he could bump off a recalcitrant opposition figure, take out a dissident stronghold, massacre the entire population of a town and the world would be none the wiser. There might be a pesky reporter trying to get to the truth, but that could be taken care of, as President Assad’s security forces demonstrated earlier this year.

Yet the digital world has made it much harder to brush war crimes and atrocities under the kilim. Thanks to Youtube, Facebook and Twitter, surveillance states now find themselves under constant surveillance in turn. The spies are spied upon, lifting the lid — albeit only partially — on what is happening inside places like Syria. Factor in nosy- parkers like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, UN observer teams, ceasefire monitors and grandee envoys dropping by with television cameras, and the dictator bent on subduing a popular revolution with the gloves off has his work cut out these days.

Which ends with:

This quartet offers little in the way of optimism for Syria. Bleakness is the order of the day. Assad will not go quietly. The minorities are right to fear for the future. The fulcrum of Arab nationalism has become the site of a proxy war for influence between Sunni and Shia Islam. However soon he departs, whatever follows minority Alawite rule, it is surely difficult to predict anything but sectarian strife for years to come.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/issues/11...ttled-dystopia