Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

It is rather curious that there is the prospect of Russian supplied of S-300 missiles versus a soon to take place US exercise in Jordan, that will "leave behind" its manned Patriot batteries.

From FP Situation Report:

Patriot batteries to remain in Jordan after Eager Lion. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has decided to leave the Patriot missile system in Jordan after the big training exercise there in order to give the United States options to play a more active role in Syria, like creating a no-fly zone

[Johannes U]

After Syrian rebels captured and occupied the Bravo gate (Syrian side) for some time today, the Austrian government apparently has decided today to withdraw its 390-strong contingent within the next 2 to 3 weeks.

I wonder what that will mean for the continuation of UNDOF and for the region as a whole, now that there will be no more puffer between the Syrian forces (both rebels and freedom fighters) and the IDF ...

[davidbfpo]

Recommended by IISS Emile Hokayem a Carnegie commentary, in summary:

The fall of the Syrian town of Qusair to Assad’s forces shows that the regime is poised to secure its position for the long term. The opposition must address its serious shortcomings.....If the strategic equilibrium that has emerged since November 2012 tips further, it will be a decisive shift in the regime’s favor.

It ends with:

The regime will not achieve a total military victory, but it can consolidate its grip on Syria’s cities, stabilize its economic situation, and hold the rebels at bay in peripheral parts of the country. Assad would be left ruling a Myanmar on the Mediterranean, boycotted by the West and some Arab states but surviving on the support of its external allies and the informal economic and trade networks that are already forming across its borders.

Something has to give—and soon. Time is running out. The regime cannot win. But the opposition can lose.

Link:http://carnegie-mec.org/2013/06/07/s...ing-point/g95a

[Bill Moore]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...390622,00.html

Forces loyal to President Bashar Assad are massing around Aleppo in preparation for an offensive to retake the city and build on battlefield gains that have swung the momentum of Syria's war to Assad and his Hezbollah allies.

Rebels reported signs of large numbers of Shiite Muslim fighters flowing in from Iraq to help Assad end the civil war that has killed at least 80,000 people and forced 1.6 million Syrians to flee abroad.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...758639885.html

Deadly blasts shake Syrian capital

Pro-government TV says at least 14 killed in attacks, day after Gulf states pledge sanctions against Hezbollah

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...wer-this-week/

Obama to decide whether U.S. will send Syrian rebels air power this week

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...390298,00.html

White House meetings are planned over the coming days, as Syrian President Bashar Assad's government forces are apparently poised for an attack on the key city of Homs, which could cut off Syria's armed opposition from the south of the country. As many as 5,000 Hezbollah fighters are now in Syria, officials believe, helping the regime press on with its campaign after capturing the town of Qusair near the Lebanese border last week.

Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a planned trip Monday to Israel and three other Mideast countries to participate in White House discussions, said officials who weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...425112509.html

Austria began pulling out its UN peacekeepers from the Golan Heights days after Vienna decided to quit the mission over deteriorating security concerns.

Vienna’s decision on Tuesday came after Syrian opposition rebels briefly seized the Quneitra crossing late last week, in an incident in which two UN troops were injured.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...143535185.html

Several rockets launched from Syria have hit the eastern Lebanese town of Hermel, a bastion of the Shia group Hezbollah, reportedly killing at least one person and wounding several others.

Tuesday's incident was the latest in a series of cross-border rocket attacks on Shia areas of Lebanon.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95B04320130612

(Reuters) - Shi'ite Muslims in the Gulf, alarmed by the shrill sectarian rhetoric of some Sunni clerics after Lebanon's Hezbollah militia entered Syria's civil war, fear they will be blamed and may be victimized for the bloodshed.

"Hate language is on the rise, in the press, on social media and even at lectures in mosques. Shi'ites in general are being blamed for what's happening in Syria," said Waleed Sulais, a researcher at the Saudi Adalah Centre for Human Rights.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...rkeys_protests

How the War in Syria Has Helped to Inspire Turkey's Protests

The anti-Erdogan protesters in Turkey have many grievances - but the prime minister's record of support for the Syrian rebels may turn out to be the most explosive.

Not all opponents of Erdogan's Syria policy are motivated by concerns about economics or security. Some secular Turks are staunch supporters of Assad, whom they see as a bulwark against Islamism. One female protestor in Taksim (who asked to remain anonymous) told me that, while she agrees with the government's stance on admitting Syrian refugees, her loyalties remain with Assad. "Our government supports terrorists here, like the Syrian rebels."

Such sentiments are especially widespread among Turkish Alawites (Alevis), adherents of the same sect who are a crucial part of Assad's power base. With a population of around 10 million, Turkish Alawites make up 15 percent of the population. (Some estimates put the number as high as one-third.) One of their most prominent members is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), who has long been one of the harshest critics of the prime minister's Syria policy. Though Kilicdaroglu denounces the Syrian president as a "dictator," he also allowed a delegation from his party to pay an official visit to Assad in Damascus three months ago.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ias-civil-war/

The Changing Shape of Syria’s Civil War

The war has already had an impact. Even if the conflict ends, Sunnis and Shias will be more divided than ever before — and not just within Syria. Iran is terrified of losing its closest ally, and will not allow Sunnis to gain control of Syria. With the ability to stir conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, any international negotiating without Iranian involvement would be folly. The conflict has also stirred up the question of the Golan Heights, the strategically important slither of rocky land between Syria and Israel that has been under Israeli occupation for 40 years — and which Israel will not give up without a fight. The Syrian civil war also presents an opportunity for Kurds to assert their own independence.

Syria and the Middle East as we know it will never be the same again.

I have to wonder if those who promoted the invasion to transform the Middle East are at least questioning their underlying logic. I also wonder if the COINdistas still think we addressed the underlying causes of tension in the region.

http://www.albawaba.com/editorchoice...killers-498733

The challenge of deciding who to provide aid to.

Parents ask Free Syrian Army to find son's killers

The parents of a 14-year-old boy who was killed by Al-Qaeda-linked Islamists in Syria’s Aleppo after being accused of heresy were heartbroken over their son’s death and said they had resorted to the opposition Free Syrian Army to help them find the killers.

[AdamG]

World exclusive: Iran will send 4,000 troops to aid Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Syria

US urges Britain and France to join in supplying arms to Syrian rebels as MPs fear that UK will be drawn into growing Sunni-Shia conflict.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...a-8660358.html

[bourbon]

Interesting interview with CIA legend Milt Bearden, who oversaw the covert supply program to the Afghan muj in the 1980's:

Interview: 'Don't Try to Convince Yourself That You're in Control' - Afghan lessons for arming the Syrian rebels from the CIA's mujahideen point man, by Joshua Keating. Foreign Policy, 14 June 2013.

With the announcement that the United States is planning to begin providing small arms to rebel groups in Syria, Bearden is blunt as to what the CIA's experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s should teach us. "The lesson here is that once we start providing anything to the rebels, we better understand that if they win, we own it," he told Foreign Policy on Friday, June 14. "The big cheerleaders on the Hill for doing this aren't focused on this. The biggest lesson from the Afghan thing was that over a 10-year period we supplied all this stuff and then walked away once the Soviets left. The same Congress that was cheerleading the brave freedom fighters against the Soviet occupation -- and they were brave and they did suffer brutally -- just walked away and wouldn't give them a nickel. If we start arming anyone in this enterprise, implicit in that is that we own it once the Assad regime falls."

I believe this is a terrible mistake in the making.

[Madhu]

I fear too that we are making a huge mistake by getting more involved in the Syrian Civil war.

On Bearden, though, I've never been a fan of the "we walked away and that's why 9-11 happened" narrative. While there is certainly some truth to it, it's too simple a narrative. It doesn't take into account other things that happened including the larger context that the first Bush administration was dealing with. Nuclear proliferation and other issues came to the fore. The CIA plan of outsourcing our dealings in Afghanistan through intermediaries was recognized as problematic even at the time.

CUSAP had one big name on its original eight-person board: Milton Bearden, a former CIA official whose name carries weight on Afghanistan because he helped run the war there against the Soviets in the 1980s. When Bearden testified about Afghanistan before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the fall, John Kerry called him a "legendary former CIA case officer." But in his testimony Bearden did not advertise his ties to Wardak or to the company's Defense Department contracts; Bearden is on the advisory board of NCL, a firm with millions of dollars at stake in Afghanistan. ("Aram," he said when I reached him on his mobile phone, "I don't have anything to talk to you about, so go ahead and do your story." Then he hung up.) Another former board member, Hedieh Mirahmadi, a prominent expert on Islamic radicalization, told me she had never been to a CUSAP board meeting. "I don't actually know what they did," she told me.

www.thenation.com/article/afghan-lobby-scam#ixzz2WOUALQoy

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan has enabled Pakistan to acquire sophisticated American arms intended mainly for use against India and to scoff at the Symington Amendment with impunity. Likewise, it is important for the American right to distort the Indian-Soviet military relationship to justify a new round of United States arms to Pakistan, forgetting that Indian military dependence on the Soviet Union was created by American arms to Pakistan. Meanwhile, massive economic aid for Pakistan - the third largest per capita foreign aid the United States gives to any country after Israel and Egypt - has enabled it to enjoy the highest economic growth rate in South Asia. It is no wonder Pakistan is not serious about resolving the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/19/op...ly-787087.html

I'm not sure how the CIA types that ran the operation against the Soviets get away with their narratives completely unchallenged. The brave freedom fighters turned out to be a complex mix, to put it mildly.

The biggest lesson is that our running the operation through our allies became problematic in addition to, "we will end up owning regime change." More problematic than self-aggrandizing CIA types allow. Myth and reality are two different things. They didn't know where the money was going and they didn't really know what was going on. Freedom fighters my $%#. Nice job, Foreign Policy. No one else on the digital rolodex to write op eds?