Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Three Russian warships anchored in Beirut en route to the port of Tartus in Syria, Sky News reported Friday.

According to the report, the ships carry hundreds of Russian soldiers as well as advanced missile systems.The reports have given no information so far regarding the ships’ intent.

Moscow has operated the naval facility at Tartus since signing an agreement with Damascus in 1971. Although it is merely a ship repair and refueling station with a limited military presence, it is the sole remaining Russian military base outside of the former Soviet Union.

In January, a flotilla of five Russian warships laden with hundreds of troops, headed toward Syria, as a show of force meant to deter Western armies from intervening in the war-torn nation, the London-based Sunday Times reported.

Previous reports cited Russian diplomats to the effect that the vessels were being put in place in order to evacuate thousands of Russians who still remained in Syria, if the situation in the country called for it.

However, a Russian intelligence source was quoted in the London Times as saying that the presence of over 300 marines on the ships was meant as a deterrent to keep countries hostile to the Bashar Assad regime — a key ally of the Kremlin — from landing special forces in the country.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/three-r...ed-for-syrian-

[davidbfpo]

The Russian 'gunboat diplomacy' is slightly odd. I cannot recall if the January 2013 flotilla actually docked in Syria, one assumes they left after enjoying the delights ashore.

This flotilla I suspect called at Beirut to take on fuel oil, supplies and water. If true that is not a good indicator of the supply situation @ Tartus / Latakia.

Having three hundred naval infantry aboard is 'meant as a deterrent'. Really? With no means of deploying ashore, apart from their own helicopters and trucks ashore. More like a large security detachment to secure the port if an evacuation of Russian nationals is required - long rumoured - but not reported to date.

[TheCurmudgeon]

I would think it is more likely that they are interested in a NEO operation and in maintaining security on their own instillation. I doubt 300 marines are going to deter anyone. It certainly isn't enough to keep Assad in power. But I do believe they are interested in maintaining the instillation with whomever comes out on top. I am curious how they plan on playing this out.

[Madhu]

Dr. Stephen Cohen on the John Batchelor show spoke about the Russian domestic situation and the anger many Russians felt at those stranded in various countries when the Soviet Union collapsed. The anger and unease stayed within the domestic psyche, apparently, but this is not an area I know much about. There is a Russian diaspora (some married locally) in the region?

How much of this is directed at the domestic situation and how much is in reaction to various international power plays (including unhappiness over NATO and regime change in Libya, worries over radicalism of the anti-Assad forces and its effects within Russia, etc?)

Link to podcast:

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcast.../22/third-hour

[davidbfpo]

Madhu asked:

There is a Russian diaspora (some married locally) in the region?

In the old Syria thread IIRC there was a post on the size of the Russian contingent, civil, military and families - which put the total at 30k. I did try to locate the post, but failed.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Lets see if this changes anything. My guess is - not unless we can prove it was the Assad regime that used the weapons.

The specter of chemical weapons attacks in the Syrian civil war emerged Tuesday, with the government and rebels each blaming the other for using such munitions.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/19/wo...war/?hpt=hp_t1

[davidbfpo]

A short report by Alex Thomson, UK C4 reporter, from the Syrian government side of the frontlines:http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thoms...th-debris/4444

All in all weapons experts would consider chlorine as a not particularly effective chemical weapon in terms of effect, but one ideally suited to home-made weaponising because of factors like its stability and availability.

In short the kind of device that conventional armies would not be interested in, but a militia group might just be.

[JWing]

These photos from a militant website and reprinted by the Associated Press purport to show Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) fighters in Anbar who are involved in fighting in Syria. It has been widely reported that Islamists like AQI have been flocking to take part in the Syrian conflict. Al Nusra Front for example, is said to be a front group for Al Qaeda. There has recently been blowback in Iraq as well when a group of over 40 Syrian soldiers who had sought refuge in Iraq were ambushed and massacred in Anbar in March 2013. Shiite militias and the Kurdistan Regional Government have either sent forces to Syria or supported fighters there as well. Like the Iraq War involved regional powers and Islamist groups, the same thing is now happening in Syria as these pictures reveal.

http://www.musingsoniraq.blogspot.co...volved-in.html

[davidbfpo]

Three viewpoints on the announcement by:

AQI Amir al-Baghdadi that Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria is in fact part of AQI's Islamic State of Iraq..

As one analyst concludes:

So, in a nut shell: I believe it is important, even though it might have been little surprising, to know that AQI and Jabhat al-Nusra form a unified body. This is not about AQ supporting Jihadists in Syria, this is AQ expliting another local conflict. In the end, the aim is larger: dominance on the ground where it can be won; attacks on Israel; international attacks.

Link:

http://abususu.blogspot.fr/2013/04/aqi-s-isigs.html

From a WINEP analyst, which ends with a very optimistic stance on US policy:http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/p...state-in-syria

Jihadica:http://www.jihadica.com/introducing-...yria%E2%80%9D/

[Wyatt]

Good frontline episode just came out. Does a decent job of getting a sample of each factions perspective on the war.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ind-the-lines/

Moderator's Note: not available in the UK.

[davidbfpo]

Jeffrey Lewis opens with:

A few thoughts on where we are with the allegations of chemical weapons us in Syria.

I was unaware of this:

Remember, in 1991, US troops detonated a pit of munitions at Khamisiyah in Iraq only to discover that the munitions contained Sarin. The image atop the post is one of a series showing US forces detonating the munitions at Khamisiyah, exposing thousands of US service personnel to low-levels of sarin. This was the worst event, but not the only potential exposure of US forces in 1991 to nerve agents.

Link:http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/arc...yria-and-sarin

[Bill Moore]

Good frontline episode just came out. Does a decent job of getting a sample of each factions perspective on the war.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ind-the-lines/

Moderator's Note: not available in the UK.

Just got around to watching this, and while much has happened on the ground since then tactically in favor of the government this is still worth watching if you haven't seen it. Reporters focus on one town that is now divided by two factions separated by a river. They conduct interviews with both the Syrian military and Syrian rebels.

The interviews with the Syrian rebels was more enlightening, in my opinion the soldiers interviewed were either plants or well prepared to communicate Assayd's message to the world, but their points are still part of the reality.

The show tended to focus on a young man who was a former police officer and now a rebel fighter. At the end he is wounded, but now claims he wants to join the Al-Qaeda affiliated group.

The rebel group leader (of 10,000 fighters, probably means 2,000), was reportedly a former construction worker. You could tell he was well respected, but he seemed to lead through charisma alone, and demonstrated no military skill.

It was a bit comical in a sad way as they were preparing to attack a Syrian Army outpost and wanted to use a vehicle mounted rocket launcher they acquired. The rebel leader was disappointed when the man who said he could fire it told him that he could fire it, but he didn't know how to aim it. Their attack failed in short order. It was apparent throughout that these rebels were poorly trained, equipped, organized, etc., but they have plenty of heart. I see no sign that their will to fight is abating.

Most telling was watching life in the village. They were constantly under artillery and air attack, and after one horrific air attack that killed several civilians you could sense the level of hate they had for their opposition. One Syrian said they need to slaughter Alawite civilians in revenge.

I just get the sense that there won't be a peaceful end to this, at least anytime soon, since the wills of both side to continue remain strong. I also think all our COIN theory that is largely academic based means little once the conflict crosses a certain threshold and passion surpasses reason. Ultimately tough decisions will have to be made by regional and global actors, but good options appear elusive for now.