Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Professor Scott Lucas, of Enduring America, an avid watcher of the region, has a short podcast on the latest offensive:http://eaworldview.com/2014/03/syria...nsive-latakia/

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

I am intrigued by this passage/ question:

but it really makes me wonder how comes nobody saw or reported all the IF's T-55s passing through the Hatay Province...

Did such armour have to move via Hatay Province?

[CrowBat]

That was sarcasm, David (I'm often - and happily - sarcastic).

If you check the map, the answer is obviously negative. The IF is holding places like Bayt Ablak and Dura - in northern Lattakiya and just 7km from Hill 45 - already since 2 years. Even from Salma (which they are also holding since 2 years) they had only to travel for 20km to Hill 45 (and 30 to Kasab).

There is a nice, paved road in between, which was simply not controlled by the regime, and which the insurgents used to by-pass Hill 45 (as if that would be a problem, considering the terrain and forests in that area) to reach Kasab first, and then they attacked Hill 45 from the rear. Some call this 'tactics'.

Of course, for all the possible experts for sports and cooking, this is not making any sense, because 'military was in control' and 'knows everything'. Foremost, 'military is not making any mistakes', while 'Erdo is supporting al-Qaida'. Actually, it's perfectly clear the Alawis and Armenians there fell for the same dumb idea like French generals in 1940 (back then it was 'tanks can't pass the Ardennes', in this case it was, 'they are never going to come that way, and if, we're going to see them on time').

On the contrary, if the attack came from Turkey, as all the pro-regime sources (and plenty of Turks too) cannot emphasise enough, the IF would have to make a huge de-tour, drive its tanks first in direction of Idlib (north) over much more problematic roads, many of which are controlled by the regime - just to reach Turkey. Turkey would then have to let these tanks in, then hide them from all the journos roaming southern Hatay, and then let them attack Kasab from the north - and all the regime stupids on Hill 45 haven't seen or reported anything of this?

That's making absolutely no sense.

Or if: whoever is buying this, I'd have two Ferraries to sell. Price is 'a life-time opportunity', believe me.

[Firn]

I think it is good to have those four maps in one post to have them at one glance. Especially when one discusses complex topics, like the ones raised frequently by CrowBat.

[CrowBat]

Talking about maps, here another one (see attachment), showing the entire combat zone in northern Lattakiya, including the road I mentioned above - from 'ad-Durra', via 'Nab'al-Murr' to the border crossing and Kasab itself.

See what kind of serpentines going up and down can be found there (typical for most of roads in this part of Syria, and all the way some 200km further south): now imagine the insurgents having to move their T-55s all the way back in direction of Idlib in order to find a way into Turkey... While, bypassing the 'Tower 45' (Hill 45) by night was no big deal.

BTW No.1, as can be seen from that map, the IF (which was already at Qasal Ma'af before the first NDF counterattack) is still fighting for Hill 45, despite tremendous volumes of artillery and air strikes: guess all the heroes of the JAN concluded the place much too hot after all.

Tragically for the locals, Samra is still in JAN hands: all the regime claims about its recovery were premature. And the AQ-linked idiots will be delivering loads of PR-material for the regime if they lose that place.

BTW No.2: the 'Free Syrian Army' is nowhere to be seen in this part of Syria. But (Moslem) Brothers of the 'SMC Light' are 'welcoming' the JAN and IF move towards the coast now...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfp8jz1bxyQ

[davidbfpo]

On Twitter this evening there was a suggestion the latest rebel offensive into Latakia region, an Alawite stronghold, was to prevent any emergence of a new state - hence the Israeli label. Sorry left Twitter and will try to retrieve it tomorrow.

[davidbfpo]

Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is in Israel and via FP's Situation Report refers to the NYT article, his own words:

an outreach to other partners who may not have been willing to be partners in the past..What I mean is the Gulf states in particular, who heretofore may not have been as open-minded to the potential for cooperation with Israel, in any way.

Then others said, with my emphasis:

While General Dempsey did not go into specifics, other American military officials said that possibilities include intelligence-sharing, joint counterterrorism exercises and perhaps looking for how Israeli and Saudi troops could jointly work on the training of Syrian opposition fighters

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/01/wo...01%202014&_r=0

Clearly someone has not thought this idea through, particularly how our shared enemies would respond. Let alone IMHO the reaction within both countries.

[CrowBat]

Erm... imagining military cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia is one pair of shoes. Nothing new, then certain people see Israelis doing anything and everywhere 'for the sake of the USA'.

Blackmailing Abdullah into firing Prince Bandar with help of the 9/11 report is another pair of shoes. But at least a fair one.

But then pushing further and blackmailing Abdullah into military cooperation with Israel too... and then making that public in this fashion...

Sounds like a vabanque game to me.

There are simply limits in how far even - or especially - a person in his position can go. Especially because there are no 'shared' enemies there (or if, then only those shared between the USA and Saudi Arabia).

[CrowBat]

The SyAAF's head-hunt is going on, and to (my) surprise, it hit the Jihadists most of all - at least in the last 24 hours.

- Muslim ash-Shishani (the 'Red Beard', ex-ISIS, lately Emir of the al-Muhajireen wa' al-Ansar Brigade JAN, top Chechen CO in Syria), should have been injured in northern Lattakiya Province, yesterday, and there are reports he's dead.

- Muhannad ash-Shishani (Deputy Emir of al-Muhajiren wa' al-Ansar Brigade JAN), KIA - supposedly in Aleppo (might be during the fighting for the disused SA-2 site in Ta'ana, SE of Sheikh Najjar IC).

- Ibrahim Ibn Shakaran (Moroccan in command of the Harakat Sham al-Islam Brigade JAN, ex-Guantanamo inmate), KIA in Lattakiya.

One of IF/Ahrar ash-Sham's brigade COs was KIA too: Abu Muhammed al-Maghribi, was KIA in al-Anfal.

Otherwise, it is confirmed that the NDF has captured the Hill 45, yesterday in late afternoon. They're now overlooking all the other peaks in the Kasab area.

[SWJ Blog]

The Syrian Conflict and its Impact on Hezbollah’s Authority

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[CrowBat]

After securing the Hill 45, the NDF was celebrating too much, then the insurgents claimed to have launched a counterattack and recaptured the place (see reports like this one). Furthermore, the insurgents should be on advance in direction of ruins of ancient city of Ugarit. CO of the IF, Zahran Aloush, is kind of 'promising' further advances (as can be read here).

Seems that something serious has happened there, then there are reports about 'delays' in hand-out of regime's CWs. That might mean that Moscow/Tehran/Damascus are using regime's CWs as a sort of 'deterrent' for the case of further insurgent advance into Lattakiya. Certainly, even Assad is stressing that the 'Battle in Lattakiya' is 'existential', and is hinting about possible use of CWs there (as can be read here, in Arabic).

The SyAAF is still targeting insurgent HQs in this area, and there are claims it killed three additional insurgent and/or Jihadist COs, including:

- Abu Muhajer, aka Ana al-Helwa (CO Ahrar ash-Sham)
- Ibrahim Ibn Shakran (CO Harakat Sham al-Islam)
- Abu Safiya al-Masry (XO Harakat Sham al-Islam)
- another, unknown JAN CO

Except for local units, the NDF now has elements of the former 11th AD and the Desert Falcons Special Forces Regiment in this part of Lattakiya Province. These have apparently fired six rockets into Turkey too: the Turkish military hit back with artillery, yesterday.

With other words, this battle in northern Lattakiya has now all the predispositions to turn from a 'flashy side-show' into a 'decisive battle of attrition'.

***********

In other 'news': the SyAAF MiG-25s are now confirmed to have spent several R-40RD/RT MRAAMs. Some reports indicate northern Hama Province, but exact area and reasons are actually unclear. What is known is that during the first 'engagement' (whether of air-to-air or air-to-ground type, that's unclear), about a week ago, one MiG-25 fired four, another then fired two R-40s. IN latest 'engagement', one MiG-25 fired two R-40s, one of which detonated about 5,000m above the ground, while the other hit the ground but failed to detonate (hope, the image attached below is going to function).



Surely, it's possible that they're trying to use them in something like 'air-to-ground mode', but I have my doubts about this. Alternative targets are possible L-39s and/or Mi-8s operated by the IF.

[CrowBat]

Most of news from the last two days are almost exclusively related to regime claims for success in fighting the JAN.

The regime should have encircled the Aleppo Thermal Powerplant east of that city (as-Sufayra). The place is said to be still held by the ISIS, though I suspect the units in question actually defected to the JAN, meanwhile. The local units should be led by two top Jihadists, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani and Abu Maria al-Ansari, who are said to have been 'trapped' there.

Al-Jawlani, who is from the Golan Heights (Syrians are pronouncing 'Golan' as 'Jawlan') and should have served with the AQ/ISIL in Iraq, is also suspected of being a co-founder of the JAN, and crucial for its subsequent expansion. Some claim him to be de-factor 'leader of the JAN'.

**************

In Kasab area of northern Lattakiya Province, the regime is claiming to have killed the CO of the Liwa al-Khattab Brigade JAN, Abdul Mu'ta ad-Darwish.

**************

In Homs, the NDF 'ambushed' a big group of the Homs Military Council in Joorat ash-Shayyah area, killing the CO of the Katiba Shuhada al-Homs Brigade, Abdul Qadir al-Homsi, 4 battalion commanders and up to 50 others. Apparently, they deployed a car bomb that hit the insurgents while these were preparing to attack the local police station.

**************

Twitter reports indicate a fierce battle for as-Sarka village, on the northern side of Rankous. Supposedly, the regime should have collapsed the first line of insurgent defences there. The insurgents claim to have repelled all attacks and caused losses to the 104th Brigade RGD and Hezbollah units deployed there.

**************

The regime is claiming to have 'liquidated' the JAN emir of Damascus - Abu Hazifa al-Ansari - too. Apparently, this happened in the course of battles for Mleha, where regime claimed to have killed '80 militants, mostly from al-Qaida's al-Nusra Front'.

*************

And the 'why R-40 discussion' is going on, for example here: The SyAAF in decay; R-40s used as AGMs in a desperate attempt to relieve fighter-bombers?

Frankly, I have my doubts about this really being the case (i.e. that the SyAAF is now trying to shoot ground targets with R-40s fired from MiG-25s).

Theoretically, one might get the R-40RT (IR-homing export variant) to acquire some hot source on the ground, but trying to aim with help of the Smerch 2A radar (as installed on SyAAF MiG-25PD/PDS-exports) would be pointless. That radar has a 'limited depressed' capability when the plane is underway at medium altitudes, and nothing like 'ground mapping mode'. With other words, it wouldn't show anything on the screen.

And the IRST system installed on MiG-25s is said to be such a crap that it couldn't do more but detect an Il-76 underway at 30,000ft in clear weather, from max range of about 15-16km.

But the R-40RTs need support from one of these two systems to be fired.

With other words: the idea of MiG-25s shooting R-40s at ground targets is simply making no sense. It's never going to work and Syrians know that, plus they don't have the fuel (and MiG-25s are extremely thirsty) for such 'games', while my assessment is also the SyAAF is not in such a bad situation as for such measures to become necessary.

[AdamG]

Terrorists who shuttle back and forth to fight in Syria may pose the next big threat to the West, according to U.S., European and Russian intelligence officials.

Intelligence professionals tell NBC News that Islamic militants act almost like vacationers as they travel back and forth to the world’s most active conflict zone, where they are being trained to conduct attacks both inside and outside the war-torn country.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/investig...t-syria-n72371

[CrowBat]

According to similar sources...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Om3WP_Ncjac

...in Syria, there are:
- 115,000 insurgents organized into 1,500 different groups (why care about 'umbrella' organizations? it's more favourable to present the insurgency as '1,500 different groups'... )
- 7,500 of these are foreigners, from 74 different countries
- 70 of foreigners are US citizens
- (more than) 1,000 of these 7,500 foreigners are from the West.

Overall, less than 10% of combatants fighting on 'non-regime' side are 'foreign Jihadists'. Hardly any of them are involved in fighting the regime (on the contrary, the ISIS attacked Abu Kamal yesterday morning, causing heavy losses to local insurgents, and then went on to slaughter 7 captured insurgents and 21 civilian activists and supporters of insurgency; man, they ought to be more effective than the Air Force Intelligence...), but well, they're a 'more pressing issue' there, obviously.

Correspondingly, this much of 'US arms and aid' is provided to insurgents:
Syrian Rebels Find Support, and Frustration, in Jordan

...When rebels want to return to Syria to fight, Jordan’s intelligence services give them specific times to cross its border. When the rebels need weapons, they make their request at an “operations room” in Amman staffed by agents from Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

During more than three years of civil war in Syria, this desert nation has come to the world’s attention largely because it has struggled to shelter hundreds of thousands of refugees. But, quietly, Jordan has also provided a staging ground for rebels and their foreign backers on Syria’s southern front. In the joint Arab-American operations room in Amman, the capital, for example, rebels say they have collected salaries as an incentive not to join better-funded extremist groups.

But this covert aid has been so limited, reflecting the Obama administration’s reluctance to get drawn into another Middle Eastern conflict, that rebels say they have come to doubt that the United States still shares their goal of toppling President Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, many rebels say they believe that the Obama administration is giving just enough to keep the rebel cause alive, but not enough to actually help it win, as part of a dark strategy aimed at prolonging the war. They say that in some cases their backers even push them to avoid attacking strategic targets, part of what they see as that effort to keep the conflict burning.

“The aid that comes in now is only enough to keep us alive, and it covers only the lowest level of needs,” said Brig. Gen. Asaad al-Zoabi, a Syrian fighter pilot who defected and now works in the operations room.
...

Considering nobody there gives a damn about finding people like Austin Tice, while at the same time there are certain retired Generals who are 'loudly thinking' about supplying stored B-52s to Israel too, I most sincerely hope that nobody got his tie dirty...

[JMA]

Despite the Brits convincing themselves they had no dog in the fight it appears the law of inintended consequences has crept up and bitten them on the ass:

Syria is now the biggest threat to Britain's security

This could be behind a pay wall for regular visitors, so here is an alternative:

British Syria-radicalized jihadists biggest threat to UK national security

Once again the non-interventionists at all costs have miscalculated. Don't expect a mea culpa though.

[Dayuhan]

Is there any reason to think that British intervention in Syria would have avoided or reduced that threat?

[JMA]

Is there any reason to think that British intervention in Syria would have avoided or reduced that threat?

I dunno... what you think?

[davidbfpo]

Intervention in Syria three years ago was the subject of a debate here, IIRC it was before Bashir Assad's regime launched such a harsh response street protests were replaced by a popular rebellion across a large swathe of Syria. Then again it became an issue after the gas attacks in Damascus.

I assume here that intervention means coercion.

I have not looked back at my post, but external Western overt military action was very unlikely to be enough to crack the Assad regime - such as disabling his air force. Nor have covert military options, notably supplying ATGM & SAM, enabled the opposition to defeat the regime, although as Crowbat repeatedly points out it has reduced the regime's capabilities.

Yes 'red lines' have been drawn, for apparently little effect, except as satisfying the politicians and diplomats need to show "we've done what we can".

Syria is now into its third year of a bitter civil war. A war that has no clear future and could drag on for a very long time - such is the bitterness on all sides.

Back to the UK angle. This week the UK stated refugee aid to Syria would reach US$900m. Hopefully this will have a far greater impact for those refugees than the small number (maybe hundreds) of UK nationals / residents fighting there - although as Crowbat recently pointed out real fighting is not their major role.

If the UK had joined in an early military intervention or after the gas attacks I do wonder if there would have been a domestic consensus supporting such a role. One of the questions for those who support intervention is not only what was the objective and the exit strategy, but when "our boys" are in the middle under fire what do we do then?

[Dayuhan]

I dunno... what you think?

I think Western involvement in Syria's civil war, directly or by proxy, would be seen as another self-interested attempt by the Western infidel to influence or control Muslim lands. I think that perception would accelerate and increase the recruitment and deployment of foreign fighters and create an increased incentive for direct attacks on Western homelands. In short, I think it would exacerbate, rather than alleviate, the threat of terror attacks against the intervening party or parties.

[JMA]

Syria Rebels, Government Report Poison Gas Attack

Syrian government media and rebel forces said Saturday that poison gas had been used in a central village, injuring scores of people, while blaming each other for the attack.