Results of "One Year After Bin Laden" Poll

[CWOT]

All,

Thanks for voting and here's the latest results.

Beginning on May 2, 2012, the "1 Year Post Bin Laden" survey asked 208 respondents the following question:

Since Usama Bin Laden's death, has al Qaeda inspired recruitment around the world increased or decreased?

The assumption of this question was that Osama Bin Laden, as of the time of his death, still played a key role in inspiring young men to join al Qaeda. After aggregating all the votes, 60% of all respondents believed al Qaeda recruitment had decreased in the year since Bin Laden's death. Below are the results of the professional group breakdown.

Fairly unremarkable, roughly 60% of all groups thought al Qaeda recruitment had decreased while the remaining 40% felt al Qaeda recruitment had increased. The only real variance in the professional group breakdown came from 'Academia' where almost 70% of professors and thinktank folks seem to feel al Qaeda recruitment is down after UBL's death. The 'Academia' voters fairly consistently believe al Qaeda's in a tough spot regardless of the question - compare the 'Academia' responses here with results to questions #2, #3, #4 and #5. If I ran the same question post-Benghazi and based on current conditions in Syria, would the results be the same?

For full charts and results, see this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=805

After looking at the professional groups, I broke the results down by all the demographic questions. The below table shows the results for each factor. Those results highlighted in green show groups selecting 'Decreased' higher than the overall average and those results highlighted in yellow selected 'Increased' higher than the overall average. Here are the results I found of interest.

While only 5 voters (small sample) said their primary (preferred) information source was 'Intelligence Reports', 80% of these respondents believed al Qaeda recruitment decreased since UBL's death.

Those preferring 'Social Media', again, appear to still be quite worried about al Qaeda. 'Social Media' respondents were far more likely than average to believe al Qaeda recruitment has increased since UBL's death.
Lastly, those born outside the U.S. also selected 'Decreased' at a higher rate than average. The rate was only 10% higher than normal and I'm thinking its just a coincidence, but who knows.

For full charts and results, see this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=805

[CWOT]

On May 2, 2012, the "1 Year After Bin Laden" survey asked the following question:

Since Usama Bin Laden's death, has there been more ...?

-Conflict and competition between al Qaeda leaders and affiliates over strategic direction, or

-Unity between al Qaeda leaders and affiliates seeking to exploit recent uprisings

I found this question particularly interesting in light of the recent debate over the Benghazi attacks. Some have asserted the attacks were the work of "al Qaeda". Other reports suggest the death of U.S. Ambassador Stevens as the work of an "al Qaeda affiliate". Yet others say the Consulate attack came from an emerging local militant group "Ansar al Sharia".

If one were to believe the attack were the work of a centrally directed al Qaeda, then I would assume there would be more unity between al Qaeda leaders than conflict. Likewise, a sense of unity in terms of central direction may mesh with an AQIM link to the Benghazi Consulate attack. However, the notion of unity appears undermined by the recent revelations that Ansar al Din maybe breaking with AQIM, while the MNLA also takes its own course in the Sahel. Meanwhile, General Ham, the U.S. AFRICOM commander, has noted that AQIM has become a central node for coordination with Boko Haram in Nigeria. It appears there are linkages between AQAP and al Shabaab in the Horn of Africa. But for AQAP in Yemen, seen by many as being the strongest AQ affiliate, are they really coordinating their operations with AQIM, AQ in Iraq or jihadi groups amongst the Syrian uprising? Probably not. And what about Zawahiri? It appears the crowd doesn't believe he is in charge of al Qaeda globally the way Bin Laden was. So which is it, more "Unity" or "Conflict" amongst AQ members after the death of Bin Laden?

In total, 197 respondents cast their opinions on this question and the vast majority believe al Qaeda's members are more in conflict (77%) than in unity (23%) after the death of their founder. The below graph shows the breakout of raw votes by professional group. Most all professional groups voted in roughly the same proportions as the total. However, military voters were more likely than other large sample size groups to believe AQ was showing 'unity' after Bin Laden's death. Meanwhile, 'Private Sector' voters were the least likely to believe AQ is cohesive - across most all questions 'Private Sector' voters appear to believe AQ is in a state of disarray.

For charts and graphs, see this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=825

[CWOT]

On May 2, 2012, one year after the death of Osama Bin Laden, I asked the following question here at this blog:

Do you think the following al Qaeda (AQ) affiliates have become stronger or weaker over the past year? (Select ‘Stronger’ or ‘Weaker’ for each affiliate)

-AQIM
-AQ in East Africa/al Shabaab
-AQAP in Yemen
-AQ Central in Pakistan/Afghanistan
-Emerging AQ affiliate in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia
-AQ in Iraq
-AQ in the Caucasus

In total, roughly 175 respondents answered this question between May 2, 2012 and the end of July 2012. The results of this question are really seven-fold as each al Qaeda affiliate was assessed independently. Below are the results of respondents’ collective assessments of each al Qaeda affiliate. I’ve showed an aggregated comparison of all respondent votes below in a chart. This compares the percentage of all votes for each al Qaeda affiliate.

Below this chart, I’ve compiled the votes of respondents into a table showing the break out of votes for each al Qaeda affiliate stratified across different demographic attributes. During this past summer, respondents clearly rated AQAP in Yemen as ‘stronger’ at higher rates than any other affiliate. However, I wonder how they would rate AQAP in Yemen now, 6 months later?

See chart at this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=844

Here are some points that I found interesting in the deeper examination of respondents' votes across each al Qaeda affiliate.

AQIM
- ‘Government Non-Military’ voters and ‘Private Sector’ voters rated AQIM 'stronger' at lower levels then other professional groups.

- Again, those preferring ‘Social Media’ as their primary information source were the most likely to select AQIM as 'stronger'.

AQ in East Africa/al Shabaab
- Again, ‘Government Non-Military’ voters were the least likely to select al Qaeda threats from the Horn of Africa as 'stronger'. Meanwhile, ‘Private Sector’ voters switched and were more likely than most to select Shabaab as getting 'stronger'. Is that the effect of lots of television news reports about the Shabaab merger with AQ Central during the February 2012 timeframe?

AQAP in Yemen
- During this survey, all groups thought AQAP was 'stronger'. Students and Academics were most convinced that AQAP was 'stronger' while ‘Government Non-Military’ were the most skeptical of AQAP’s strength.

AQ Central in Pakistan/Afghanistan
- All groups seemed to think AQ Central was weaker a year after Bin Laden’s death. Academia is particularly down on AQ Central. But here’s where it gets weird, ‘Government Non-Military’ voters were more likely than other voters to believe that AQ Central is 'stronger' a year after Bin Laden’s death. The same group that was skeptical about AQIM, AQAP, and Shabaab is less skeptical about AQ Central.

- Television viewers were most likely of from information source to believe that AQ Central was 'stronger', although they were still less than 50% in this assessment.

Emerging AQ affiliate in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia
- Voters were most undecided about the strength of al Qaeda in North Africa. 51% thought this emerging affiliate was ‘stronger’ and 49% thought this emerging affiliate was ‘weaker’. I wonder what the vote would be if I ran this in the week after the Benghazi attacks?

- A strange breakdown of this affiliate occurs with regards to information sources. Those preferring intelligence reports and newspapers believe this affiliate is ‘weaker’ but magazine readers were more likely to say ‘stronger’.

AQ in Iraq
- Overall, AQ in Iraq was assessed as 'weaker', but academics and those with PHD’s were more likely to select AQ in Iraq as ‘stronger’ a year after Bin Laden’s death.

AQ in the Caucasus
- The threat of al Qaeda in the Caucasus – does anyone really know anything about this threat – appears to be ‘weaker’ based on all votes, but social media watchers were the group most likely to select ‘stronger’.

Here are the breakdown charts by demographic group for each AQ affiliate assessed by voters.

See more charts at this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=844

[CWOT]

The relative strength of al Qaeda remains a point of constant debate - a debate that grows more complicated each year as the definition of al Qaeda becomes ever more amorphous. Earlier this week, I kicked off 2013 with a quick survey question asking readers whether they believe al Qaeda is 'stronger' or 'weaker' as compared to the time of Bin Laden's death. I'll post the results of the 24 hours of responses here below. But first, I wanted to show the results of this same question when asked on the first anniversary of Bin Laden's death.

Starting on May 2, 2012 through July 2012, 197 people answered the following question.

One year after the death of Bin Laden, do you believe al Qaeda as a terrorist organization is 'stronger' or 'weaker'? (Use an definition of 'stronger' or 'weaker' that you prefer)

Of the 197 votes cast, just over 75% of respondents thought al Qaeda was 'weaker' a year after the death of its founder. Interesting! The first chart here shows the percentage of each professional group choosing 'stronger' (blue) or 'weaker' (red). Here are some results that I found interesting.

--Government Contractors were most likely to select al Qaeda is 'stronger'. Why? I'm not sure.
--'Academia', 'Private Sector' and 'Students' were all solidly of the belief that al Qaeda is 'weaker'. What are they teaching in academia and how much are students influenced by their professors? May be just a coincidence, but I do wonder.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858

The following table has the results broken out by different demographic attributes. There were two results that were curious.

Those living in the DC-Baltimore corridor were more likely to say al Qaeda is 'weaker'.

Those that have lived outside the U.S. and E.U. for two years or more were slightly more likely to select al Qaeda as being 'stronger'. While the difference isn't large, I do find it curious that those most traveled were more alarmed about a 'stronger' al Qaeda. I expected those with more travel under their belt to be less likely to believe al Qaeda is 'stronger'.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858

Just this week, I reissued the same question that was asked on May 2, 2012. As of January 1, 2013, is al Qaeda 'stronger' or 'weaker'? Here are the results of the respondents that voted to date (and feel free to cast your vote now if interested, I'll post an updated set of results in the coming days.)

While not a large sample, in the seven months since the first anniversary of Bin Laden's death, there have been some significant changes in opinion with more believing that al Qaeda is 'stronger' than only a few months before.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858