Results of "One Year After Bin Laden" Poll

[CWOT]

On May 2, 2012, one year after the death of Osama Bin Laden, I asked the following question here at this blog:

Do you think the following al Qaeda (AQ) affiliates have become stronger or weaker over the past year? (Select ‘Stronger’ or ‘Weaker’ for each affiliate)

-AQIM
-AQ in East Africa/al Shabaab
-AQAP in Yemen
-AQ Central in Pakistan/Afghanistan
-Emerging AQ affiliate in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia
-AQ in Iraq
-AQ in the Caucasus

In total, roughly 175 respondents answered this question between May 2, 2012 and the end of July 2012. The results of this question are really seven-fold as each al Qaeda affiliate was assessed independently. Below are the results of respondents’ collective assessments of each al Qaeda affiliate. I’ve showed an aggregated comparison of all respondent votes below in a chart. This compares the percentage of all votes for each al Qaeda affiliate.

Below this chart, I’ve compiled the votes of respondents into a table showing the break out of votes for each al Qaeda affiliate stratified across different demographic attributes. During this past summer, respondents clearly rated AQAP in Yemen as ‘stronger’ at higher rates than any other affiliate. However, I wonder how they would rate AQAP in Yemen now, 6 months later?

See chart at this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=844

Here are some points that I found interesting in the deeper examination of respondents' votes across each al Qaeda affiliate.

AQIM
- ‘Government Non-Military’ voters and ‘Private Sector’ voters rated AQIM 'stronger' at lower levels then other professional groups.

- Again, those preferring ‘Social Media’ as their primary information source were the most likely to select AQIM as 'stronger'.

AQ in East Africa/al Shabaab
- Again, ‘Government Non-Military’ voters were the least likely to select al Qaeda threats from the Horn of Africa as 'stronger'. Meanwhile, ‘Private Sector’ voters switched and were more likely than most to select Shabaab as getting 'stronger'. Is that the effect of lots of television news reports about the Shabaab merger with AQ Central during the February 2012 timeframe?

AQAP in Yemen
- During this survey, all groups thought AQAP was 'stronger'. Students and Academics were most convinced that AQAP was 'stronger' while ‘Government Non-Military’ were the most skeptical of AQAP’s strength.

AQ Central in Pakistan/Afghanistan
- All groups seemed to think AQ Central was weaker a year after Bin Laden’s death. Academia is particularly down on AQ Central. But here’s where it gets weird, ‘Government Non-Military’ voters were more likely than other voters to believe that AQ Central is 'stronger' a year after Bin Laden’s death. The same group that was skeptical about AQIM, AQAP, and Shabaab is less skeptical about AQ Central.

- Television viewers were most likely of from information source to believe that AQ Central was 'stronger', although they were still less than 50% in this assessment.

Emerging AQ affiliate in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia
- Voters were most undecided about the strength of al Qaeda in North Africa. 51% thought this emerging affiliate was ‘stronger’ and 49% thought this emerging affiliate was ‘weaker’. I wonder what the vote would be if I ran this in the week after the Benghazi attacks?

- A strange breakdown of this affiliate occurs with regards to information sources. Those preferring intelligence reports and newspapers believe this affiliate is ‘weaker’ but magazine readers were more likely to say ‘stronger’.

AQ in Iraq
- Overall, AQ in Iraq was assessed as 'weaker', but academics and those with PHD’s were more likely to select AQ in Iraq as ‘stronger’ a year after Bin Laden’s death.

AQ in the Caucasus
- The threat of al Qaeda in the Caucasus – does anyone really know anything about this threat – appears to be ‘weaker’ based on all votes, but social media watchers were the group most likely to select ‘stronger’.

Here are the breakdown charts by demographic group for each AQ affiliate assessed by voters.

See more charts at this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=844

[CWOT]

The relative strength of al Qaeda remains a point of constant debate - a debate that grows more complicated each year as the definition of al Qaeda becomes ever more amorphous. Earlier this week, I kicked off 2013 with a quick survey question asking readers whether they believe al Qaeda is 'stronger' or 'weaker' as compared to the time of Bin Laden's death. I'll post the results of the 24 hours of responses here below. But first, I wanted to show the results of this same question when asked on the first anniversary of Bin Laden's death.

Starting on May 2, 2012 through July 2012, 197 people answered the following question.

One year after the death of Bin Laden, do you believe al Qaeda as a terrorist organization is 'stronger' or 'weaker'? (Use an definition of 'stronger' or 'weaker' that you prefer)

Of the 197 votes cast, just over 75% of respondents thought al Qaeda was 'weaker' a year after the death of its founder. Interesting! The first chart here shows the percentage of each professional group choosing 'stronger' (blue) or 'weaker' (red). Here are some results that I found interesting.

--Government Contractors were most likely to select al Qaeda is 'stronger'. Why? I'm not sure.
--'Academia', 'Private Sector' and 'Students' were all solidly of the belief that al Qaeda is 'weaker'. What are they teaching in academia and how much are students influenced by their professors? May be just a coincidence, but I do wonder.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858

The following table has the results broken out by different demographic attributes. There were two results that were curious.

Those living in the DC-Baltimore corridor were more likely to say al Qaeda is 'weaker'.

Those that have lived outside the U.S. and E.U. for two years or more were slightly more likely to select al Qaeda as being 'stronger'. While the difference isn't large, I do find it curious that those most traveled were more alarmed about a 'stronger' al Qaeda. I expected those with more travel under their belt to be less likely to believe al Qaeda is 'stronger'.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858

Just this week, I reissued the same question that was asked on May 2, 2012. As of January 1, 2013, is al Qaeda 'stronger' or 'weaker'? Here are the results of the respondents that voted to date (and feel free to cast your vote now if interested, I'll post an updated set of results in the coming days.)

While not a large sample, in the seven months since the first anniversary of Bin Laden's death, there have been some significant changes in opinion with more believing that al Qaeda is 'stronger' than only a few months before.

See the this link for graphs and charts: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=858