Islands in dispute in the East China Sea

[Dayuhan]

I looked it over a few times, and really don't see anything very confusing about it, unless you really wish it to be so.

Now the importance of this article isn't that a Red Chinese invasion fleet will be setting sail for Naha next week. The importance is that some powerful people in Red China think is a good enough idea to promulgate it officially (seeing as how there is no free press in Red China, if it gets out like it did, it's official).

That some powerful people think this is a good idea and should be pursued illustrates to a nebbish like me the folly of trying to appease an aggressive police state. They are never satisfied and if appeased will only want more since they have been rewarded for aggression.

JMA said something a while back about a rocky road ahead for Japan.

Not necessarily official, but with some backing in official circles, or at least some interest in floating the idea. There's a great deal of factionalism within "official" in China, and many different people pursuing different agendas for different reasons.

Coincidentally, I recently discussed these matters with a recently retired US Naval officer, of the submarine persuasion (a lot of USN types still retire in Subic). He had a very high opinion of the JMSDF, and expressed the belief (he had strong opinions) that anyone taking a bite at them in their own turf would be in for a very rocky road of their own. That's not an opinion I'm in a position to evaluate, of course, but it was strongly held. I do suspect that one reason the Chinese will likely avoid large-scale confrontation is that they have a fair array of opposition, much of it well equipped and capable. The Japanese and the Koreans are not pushovers, and any move aimed at conquest would be anything but easy.

Seems to me all this talk of aggression and appeasement is somewhat inconsistent with what's actually happening on the water, and in any event I don't see what practical alternative course of action really exists beyond more of what's already being done, as reviewed above. I've yet to hear any persuasive argument for threats, bluster, and ultimatums, nor do I see what they're meant to accomplish.

[Ray]

Of course they don't. FONOPS are simply a declaration that the US cares as little about China's declaration of sovereignty as China cares about UNCLOS. A gesture, of course, but most of what goes on in the SCS is composed of gestures of one sort or another. I've yet to see any very credible suggestions for what the US - or anyone else - could or should do that isn't already being done.

The pot is boiling.

It is still to boil over to see the effects.

Japan has also jumped into the fray.

And Japan is no pushover!

[Dayuhan]

I'd say the pot's simmering, rather than boiling. The Japanese are certainly not pushovers, but of course from the standpoint of Chinese domestic politics standing up to the Japanese carries a lot of flag-waving nationalist points that the Chinese government will be eager to score. They will not want that to boil, though, let alone boil over, so I'd expect them to keep just enough heat on to generate a simmer without ever pushing too near the boiling point.

[AdamG]

Living in interesting times.

BEIJING (AP) — A territorial flare-up between China and Japan intensified Tuesday as two Beijing-sent patrol ships arrived near disputed East China Sea islands in a show of anger over Tokyo's purchase of the largely barren outcroppings from their private owners.

The China Marine Surveillance has drawn up a plan to safeguard China's sovereignty of the islands and the ships were sent to assert those claims, said the Chinese government's official news agency, Xinhua. The marine agency is a paramilitary force whose ships are often lightly armed.

http://news.yahoo.com/china-sends-pa...051725925.html

RUSSKY ISLAND, Vladivostok – Singapore is fully behind the Philippines in its claim over the Spratly islands that is being contested by economic and military giant China and four other neighboring countries, a top Philippine diplomat said here yesterday.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...bCategoryId=63

On Aug. 31, National Security Council Secretary-General Hu Wei-chen visited the island with a group of senior government officials to assert Taiwan's territorial claim, but he did not comment on whether the government will redeploy marines there.

Coast Guard Administration (CGA) personnel have been responsible for defending Taiping, one of the Spratly Islands, since 2000, after the government decided to withdraw marines stationed on the island to reduce tensions in the region.

http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNe...D=201209050019

[The Cuyahoga Kid]

Wow, I'm surprised the Chinese are becoming so assertive over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai spate. Panetta made it pretty clear that US security guarantees to Japan extend to the disputed islets by offering UAV overflights. Between this and Xi snubbing Hillary I'm starting to worry the weakening Chinese economy and pending leadership transition may be pushing the CCP off the deep-end.

[Dayuhan]

Re this item:

RUSSKY ISLAND, Vladivostok – Singapore is fully behind the Philippines in its claim over the Spratly islands that is being contested by economic and military giant China and four other neighboring countries, a top Philippine diplomat said here yesterday.

Singapore has specifically denied this:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/09...rt-sea-dispute

The MFA spokesman clarified it does not take sides in the dispute. “We have seen the reports in question. You all know how free the Filipino media is; they can even be very free with the facts. There has been no change to Singapore's position.”

Wow, I'm surprised the Chinese are becoming so assertive over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai spate. Panetta made it pretty clear that US security guarantees to Japan extend to the disputed islets by offering UAV overflights. Between this and Xi snubbing Hillary I'm starting to worry the weakening Chinese economy and pending leadership transition may be pushing the CCP off the deep-end.

The Japanese have also been fairly assertive, notably with the recent decision to purchase the islands from private owners despite Chinese warnings that the move would be ill received. US security guarantees are in no way the only issue for China in the area: Japan is not the Philippines or Vietnam, and I'd be very surprised to see China push anywhere near the shooting point, though of course they'll feel obliged to put on a show of defiance. I don't think the Chinese would be at all interested in provoking a shooting incident at sea with the Japanese.

[AdamG]

...which are getting even more interesting

Alaska’s fleet of F-22 fighter jets and their elite pilots have been deployed to an airbase in the Pacific U.S. territory of Guam, according to officials at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. The deployment has been planned for some time, but happens to coincide with a period of escalating tension in the Pacific Theater, as Japan and China dispute who has the rights to a set of uninhabited, resource-rich islands.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/articl...en-china-japan