Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 31

Thread: Armenia, Azerbaijan & Nagorno-Karabakh

  1. #1
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,098

    Default Armenia, Azerbaijan & Nagorno-Karabakh

    ICG, 25 Mar 08: Azerbaijan: Independent Islam and the State
    Claims that major terrorist acts were foiled in Azerbaijan at the end of 2007 have prompted discussion about the extent to which Islamic extremism is a genuine threat in the oil-rich land. Azerbaijan is a secular state with an overwhelmingly moderate (predominantly Shiite) Muslim population. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union and independence in 1991, independent Sunni and Shiite groups have emerged which refuse the spiritual authority of the official clergy. Some are political, but very few, if any, appear intent on employing violence to overthrow the state. The government, however, expresses concern about these “independents”, and tries to control them, including through repression. Its strategy risks radicalising peaceful activists and believers.....

    ....The independent communities identified throughout this report do not appear to pose a genuine threat to the government or to a secular way of life. Almost no group in the country can be considered jihadist. The few groups that openly voice a desire to establish an Islamic state lack a significant following and a strategic vision of how to implement their goal. But exaggeration of the Islamic threat has been used to justify repression and control of religious life, which risks leading to politicisation and possible radicalisation of the many more who have suffered from police brutality even if they were originally apolitical and purely religious.....
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 04-28-2010 at 03:17 AM. Reason: Fixed link.

  2. #2
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,098

    Default

    ICG, 29 Oct 08: Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform
    ....The arms race set off by Baku’s rapidly expanding military budget is dangerous. Nagorno-Karabakh is a simmering conflict – all Azerbaijanis are determined to restore the country’s territorial integrity – not a deep frozen one. It has the potential to destabilise a sensitive region at some point in the next few years far more than the August 2008 events in Georgia. The fundamental need is for all who profess an interest in stability in these areas to take the initiative to ensure that it is diplomacy, not war, that provides the answer to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
    ICG, 7 Oct 09: Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough
    After two decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Armenia have moved closer to a preliminary “basic principles” agreement that would create crucial momentum towards an eventual formal peace agreement. Key differences remain, however, regarding the right of return of all displaced, the specifics of Nagorno-Karabakh’s interim status and, especially, a mutually acceptable process for determining its final status. The leaderships of both countries, particularly in Armenia, face significant opposition from political forces that are suspicious or outright opposed to even the broad outlines of a basic principles agreement. Both governments need to do more to counter years of hostile propaganda in their societies. International mediators should reinforce the message that the status quo is not sustainable, given growing instability along the front lines, steady increase in armed skirmishes and dangerous military build-ups in both countries. While the historic move of Armenia and Turkey toward rapprochement after a century of hostility is technically distinct, the processes reinforce each other.

    Similar “windows of opportunity” have been missed before, falling victim to public hostility stoked by hostile propaganda and entrenched bitterness on both sides and a mutual lack of political will. This time, a large part of the impetus for progress has come from the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia themselves. Parallel to the efforts at the negotiating table, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaderships and their international partners should work with the publics to bridge the gap in perceptions of the peace process, so that popular opinion reinforces, rather than challenges the political will of leaders to reach agreements.....
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 04-28-2010 at 03:15 AM. Reason: Fixed links.

  3. #3
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default Azerbaijan and Armenia

    Both states have an unresolved conflict (Nagorno-Karabakh) that doesn't seem to attract decisive international mediation/moderation efforts.

    Azerbaijan is (judging by superficial info such as budget and personnel) likely militarily superior and this asymmetry is likely to become more extreme.

    Armenia's economy is suffering due tot he poor relations with its neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan, its difficult geographical situation, the lingering conflict.
    Azerbaijan otherwise has easily available revenues from oil exports.


    I've heard and read rumour that the conflict could soon become hot again.

    Examples include European delegation members returning from Baku and recounting war rhetoric not unlike what was heard a few weeks before Georgia tried to gain control of South Ossetia.



    I assume it's worth the effort and time to keep an eye on this. Maybe others can contribute to this thread with info that's beyond google's reach?

  4. #4
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,098

    Default

    MICROCON, 11 June 2010: Engaging Civil Society in the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict: What Role for the EU and its Neighbourhood Policy?
    The conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, opposing Armenia and Azerbaijan, is the longest conflict in the OSCE area and a fundamental security threat to the South Caucasus and surrounding regions, preventing full and inclusive economic development and constraining regional relations. This chapter takes the ENP as a conflict transformation tool and looks at how the EU has used this initiative to reach civil society organisations (CSOs) and improve their performance as peace-builders in this protracted conflict. Building on the theoretical framework presented by Tocci (2008), the chapter assesses EU involvement in the civil society domain, mapping the types of organisations privileged by the EU and the potential impact of their activities on the conflict. It puts forward relevant arguments regarding the suitability of the EU’s goals and instruments to the dynamics on the ground and concludes with a categorisation of the EU’s approach according to three hypotheses: The Liberal Peace, the Leftist Critique and the Realist hypothesis. It is argues that work with civil society is a crucial part of the EU’s approach, despite the difficulties of making such engagement a central part of its peace-building and conflict transformation activities.

  5. #5
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,098

    Default

    ICG, 8 Feb 11: Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War
    An arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks are increasing the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Preventing this is urgent. Increased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly. Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran. Vital oil and gas pipelines near the front lines would be threatened, as would the cooperation between Russia and Turkey that is central to regional stability. Another refugee crisis would be likely.....

  6. #6
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    12,206

    Default Nagorno-Karabakh: ten summits later

    From the introduction to an IISS Strategic Comment:
    Hopes have been dashed again that Armenia and Azerbaijan might make finally make a breakthrough in their long-standing conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The two countries' presidents left a meeting mediated by Russia's Dmitry Medvedev on 24 June in Kazan, without approving the basic principles for the conflict's resolution. With many recent ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and a growing arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this latest failure leaves open the threat of a new war in the region.
    Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...orno-karabakh/
    davidbfpo

  7. #7
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default Azerbaijan

    The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is brewing- Azerbaijan is able to spend a lot on its military with oil money, and it does so. The military spending figures grow dramatically.
    Reports about the attitudes in Baku are alarming.


    This begs the question: are there must-know places (websites, institutions, experts, publications) concerning the conflict and the forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia?
    For once, I'd like to know about some obscure region in detail before it blows up and I'm left with lots of 60-minute-educated journalist summaries about it.

  8. #8
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    903

    Default

    Thomas Goltz covered Turkey and the Caucasus as a journalist; he also covered the Karabakh war extensively. Goltz is part foreign correspondent, part scholar, and part madman; his book Azerbaijan Diary is excellent.
    “[S]omething in his tone now reminded her of his explanations of asymmetric warfare, a topic in which he had a keen and abiding interest. She remembered him telling her how terrorism was almost exclusively about branding, but only slightly less so about the psychology of lotteries…” - Zero History, William Gibson

  9. #9
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default

    This paper is pretty much purpose-built for you.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

  10. #10
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default

    It's badly lacking maps, mistakes mortars and sniper's (sic!) rifles for sophisticated weapons and is a bit dated, but otherwise fine.

    The paper mentions an Armenian-Russian alliance. I guess that's the answer to the lingering question about why the powder keg didn't blow up yet.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSTO

  11. #11
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    It's badly lacking maps, mistakes mortars and sniper's (sic!) rifles for sophisticated weapons and is a bit dated, but otherwise fine.
    I come to you with an Anglophone journalist fully fluent in Russian and you complain of his grasp of military science and that he is not a cartographer. You ask too much of me, sir!

    There are a couple of (admittedly dinky) maps in his book. A Google Scholar search for the works citing Black garden in 2011 and 2012 (with peer reviewed content of course having been finalized a couple of years before date of publication) returns this result.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

  12. #12
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,031

    Default

    Posted by Fuchs

    The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is brewing- Azerbaijan is able to spend a lot on its military with oil money, and it does so. The military spending figures grow dramatically.
    Reports about the attitudes in Baku are alarming.
    You definitely called this one correctly, the recent events over the released Azeri murderer being welcomed home as a hero, promoted, and given back pay have brought the level of hatred between the belligerents out into the open for the rest of us to see.

    Assuming this does escalate into a conflict it may have significant regional implications that impacts the U.S., Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Georgia, all of which will have interests they'll use the conflict for to pursue.

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65867

    No evidence from Safarov's 2006 trial in Budapest suggests either claim is true. But some Azerbaijani observers say the legacy of the Nagorno-Karabakh war and a steady diet of government anti-Yerevan invective have combined to cement an almost pathological hatred of Armenians in the minds of many Azerbaijanis.

    "It's not only the Armenian soldiers and officers who are occupying our land that Azerbaijanis consider their enemy," says Baku-based political analyst Zardusht Alizadeh. "It's not only the 'Armenian terrorists' who were killed in the fighting. Because of a very skillfully constructed propaganda campaign, it's all Armenians who are considered the enemy. That's why a man who killed an Armenian in his sleep is automatically categorized as a hero."
    This looks like we're reading the prelude to war, and I don't see much hope for a peaceful intervention. Seems to have little to do with economic development issues, although both sides are underdeveloped, and everything to do with honor, fear, and hatred.

  13. #13
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    2,599

    Default Nagorno-Karabakh 2: Putin's Boogaloo?

    Footage recorded by Sputnik Armenia shows heavy armor moving in a column along the streets of Stepanakert, the capital and the largest city of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic, amid the recent escalation in the region.

    The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh sharply deteriorated overnight, with
    Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of starting the fighting.
    Video here
    https://www.rt.com/news/338136-heavy...orno-karabakh/

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for an end to fighting after clashes broke out in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Azerbaijan said 12 of its soldiers had been killed and a helicopter shot down. TV pictures showed a burned out vehicle and craters after gunfire and shelling.

    Nagorno-Karabakh has been in the hands of ethnic Armenian separatists since a war that ended in 1994.reports of gun and mortar fire coming from the border with Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan accuse each other of provoking the escalation.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  14. #14
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    12,206

    Default

    What is curious is why this long running dispute, a "frozen" matter since 1994, ignited now.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-25-2016 at 03:41 PM.
    davidbfpo

  15. #15
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    2,599

    Default

    Energy-rich Azerbaijan, whose military spending has exceeded Armenia’s entire state budget, has repeatedly threatened to take back the breakaway region by force if negotiations fail to yield results. Moscow-backed Armenia says it could crush any offensive.
    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News...rontline-.html


    More
    http://armenpress.am/eng/news/841888...nding-one.html

    http://armenpress.am/eng/news/841783...ince-1994.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  16. #16
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian non linear warfare hard at work and the West does not see it......

    Fifth proxy front for Putins Russia. The west is an ostrich w head in sand.


    Russia has been stoking conflict between Armenia & Azerbaijan and now Putin calls for ceasefire. His typical pattern of "help" in ex-USSR.

    What a coincidence that the same moment EU pipeline is approved, Russian-backed Armenian troops attack Azerbaijan.

    What a coincidence Kerry was in Azerbeijan the other day. Did he approve the attack?

    Very strange resumption of conflict. Maybe the reason - to prevent a new gas pipeline ?

    Map shows conflict spots in post-#Soviet area (+ #Syria), Putin trying to heat up to crash states & restore #USSR
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-03-2016 at 09:59 AM. Reason: Moved to the Armenia & Azerbijian thread.

  17. #17
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Dangerous turn in Russia/Turkey rivalry: Karabakh fighting escalates via @oijcbrown
    http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/198592.aspx
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-03-2016 at 06:38 PM.

  18. #18
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Turkey to back Azerbaijan 'to the end' in Karabakh conflict
    http://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/201...nd-in-karabakh

    A conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will by definition be a proxy war between Russia and Turkey.

    If things go awry in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia can test the equivalent of NATO's article 5 in CSTO treaty.

    CSTO chief: Escalation in Karabakh may lead to large-scale conflict
    http://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2016/3-apri


    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-03-2016 at 06:38 PM.

  19. #19
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    This is in fact a major de facto Russia Turkey proxy war....

    Breaking : #Turkey, #Pakistan and #Belarus have offered military assistance to #Azerbaijan -
    http://m.haqqin.az/news/67233

    Next we will hear Article 5 of the CSTO has been triggered and the Russian military is entering the fighting......

  20. #20
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Welcome to the new, not-really-new front in the war, not-really-war between Russia and Turkey, not-really-just-Turkey.

Similar Threads

  1. Armenia: #ElectricYerevan protests
    By OUTLAW 09 in forum Central Asia
    Replies: 34
    Last Post: 07-07-2015, 02:59 PM
  2. Army "Future": Invade Azerbaijan
    By sgmgrumpy in forum Futurists & Theorists
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 03-11-2009, 03:35 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •