Virtual War

[Rob Thornton]

Somebody had mentioned online gaming. I need some thoughts on the value of having a bad guy placed as video game merchant. I'm rather poor when it comes to access to an analysis cell - most of the guys I do have access have no LE background and just are not thinking in these directions. You can hit me with a PM or send it to my AKO. Here is a line of thought I'm developing:

-If he’s like the tech geeks we usually see in this industry in other places, then he’s probably both tech savvy and well connected on the internet (generally geeks know other geeks).

-Pirate copies of video games are sold on both MAREZ and DIAMONDBACK at the local national stores – could be trading video games at a discount for information about locals working on FOBs then selling that info to AIF who will kill them or their families unless they quit

-As much as I like cheap videos, some of the proceeds support an illegal trade and thus support crime and terrorism.

-Since you can pay for a Satellite ISP, its likely a guy could based off the money he makes. Its also possible the shop and stock could be opened up with AIF seed money

-Anybody who has done online gaming knows you can communicate with other online gamers – terrorist networks know this and are using online gaming as both a way to communicate covertly (you have to be invited to play in certain communities), and as a good way to train.

- The influencing other young men, probably recruiting by paying younger Iraqis off with the video game hardware or software – could even be starting them on easy jobs, much like gang bangers in the US do with kids as lookouts.

Thanks, Rob

[jcustis]

Gents,

Following Rob's point about online gaming, this recently aired show came to mind. Although you may have difficulty accessing this contect-rich page, a strange example of pervasive networking is highlighted here:

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/154...15/index.jhtml

Ge Jin had heard that people in China play "World of Warcraft" for profit.

He heard that they killed monsters for virtual gold that they could then sell to wealthier gamers around the world. He heard that they worked in dreary conditions — sweatshops even, people said. And he heard that many gamers hated these guys.

But he wanted to see it himself.

Over the last year Jin — a Ph.D. candidate at the University of California, San Diego — has traveled to China to find the infamous "gold farmer," the not-so-unique type of "World of Warcraft" player who last year inspired a fan of that game to post a note on the "WoW" message board that read, "Get the goddamn Chinese out of this game." That gamer received dozens of messages in support.

Jin didn't just find the farmers. He found plenty of them. "Right now China is really the world factory of virtual goods," Jin told MTV News in an interview last month. He had spoken to people who did just what the reports claimed: They mined for virtual gold and sold it through a chain of individuals that eventually reached gamers in America and Europe who, disregarding the wishes of the "WoW" makers, would purchase the virtual currency with their credit cards and use it to purchase items that speed their advance through the game. Such is the marvel of relative economic value, where the 15 bucks an American player can spend on 100 pieces of virtual gold can help a Chinese gamer make a living.

I watched the show because I have the Asian MTV channel on my expanded satellite package (a whole other drama story). The point is that there is this addictive game out there that has spawned an information/economic network where players of the game will actually pay money to make their virtual character better within the game's construct. They pay their money to brokers of characters and life points, who have in turn developed these virtual goods through Chinese players who do nothing but play the game in shifts (virtual workers).

Seeing the show made me start thinking of other terrorist financial networks. Could perhaps Ebay be the unwitting host of such a network, where bootlegged DVDs, CDs, and other goods are sold as a "brand new, in the box" products and the profits are funnelled into more nefarious activities? There has to be some semblance of truth along the line here, and as virtual markets increase their grasp on our lives, we are probably unwitting pawns in grander schemes.

Although most of us might not frequent a seedy flea market and pick up an illegal copy of the latest Rocky, do we have the same inhibitions over the Internet?

[selil]

Jcustis wait until you find out about Second Life (http://secondlife.com/)

One thing I would say about the eBay, the video game dealer, etc... is that you have to stop thinking about brick and mortar stores. Physical location is totally unimportant. The broadband connection means the bad guy can be anywhere and still active and have "point" impact on your location. A warez server located in Chile can be used as an economic engine supporting illicit activities in Afghanistan and populated by users world wide. Recruitment for real world activities and preparation can occur in a virtual 3d terrain that can be modeled and built to EXACTLY duplicate an operation environment. Using tools like "Google Earth", and "Sketch Up" (impressive tools used to create the environment but not necessary) a 3d world can be built as a custom level in a game and used for on line training. Nobody here is going to mistake that kind of training for real world training but an adversary can also use that type of modeling to pass intel, show troop movements, create plans of attack, coordinate attacks, track patterns, and so much more.

[Rob Thornton]

One of our FSNCOs who has been re-rolled as one of our analysts expressed shock that I did not know you could buy virtual anything. He tells me he has a friend who sold his Everquest character (a fantasy RPG) online for 5K $US. He told me he'd actually bought credits for his Star Wars Galaxies character through E-Bay. The Routine? They arrange a meeting place online within the game so one character can X-fer the credits to another - somewhere public that was easy to find. The characters on screen look like they are just standing there - the discussion takes place through IM. There is no "Star Wars Galaxy" organization which might prevent or interfere with such a transaction - very slick. Our other FSNCO/Analyst said that the last time he was here, his boss actually got an everquest account so he could leave messages for them - they'd do a virtual dead drop. Snce you could have anything be your message button (you could have it be a virtual light switch in a virtual room that is i a virtual building, on a virtual block, etc. you can hide the message avatar look like anything, then include a password that acutally allows you to access its hidden funtion.

So - 40 year old Rob is behind the power curve 0- but my 20 something FSNCOs and the 19-25 year old terrorists and criminals are not - this is common knowledge for them, and a world they are very comfortable in.

Whith sums as extravagent as those paid for the Everquest character, what looks ordinary and what doesn't? What else gets bought and sold under the guise of skills, virtual monies and players?

What type of orders pass from bad guy to bad guy? We better get smart on this real quick. We better start training our Intel guys to think along these lines instead of beating them down with conventional Soviet doctrine. Maybe what we need are some SOF like virtual warriors that go in and conduct operations with virtual characters to get the virtual information and conduct virtual DA on virtual targets - my kid who beats my ass in HALO would love that. They'll need to hack in to servers (call it an insertion) and look for stuff that don't look right. I'm not even joking - I think the bad guys are way out infront of us.

China is pushing a good deal of their budget into cyber warfare. We need to consider why - much like our FOB mentality, our response to combatting cyber terror (and supporting activities) is by and large defensive - better Anti-Virus, better firewalls. I think a good part of the enemy wants to keep us that way. This allows them to go out and conduct the rest of their buisness while we stay walled up - we have placed ourselves in our own box - contained and isolated would be the tactical terms - who knows that could have been the intent all along - Sun Tzu writ in 1s and 0s! It reminds me of what the insurgents do here to keep us out of the neighborhoods - hit the MSRs and we will sink more combat power into defending them so the AIF can have freedom of movement in the neighborhoods!

[jcustis]

Rob, your post sounds like it deserves its own thread. I had no idea it was that pervasive when I saw the show on virtual farming. I just thought it happened in one stinking game.

Can these cyber maneuvers and such be small wars in and of themselves? Or are they merely small wars maneuvers conducted on an unfamiliar piece of terrain. I'm not looking for an 4GW, 5GW theoretical answer. My hunch is that this goes way beyond (and more dangerously) than Van Riper and mission type orders issued along with the morning prayers.

[slapout9]

I read somewhere awhile back that DOD had a research project based on the SIMS that was to be adapted to situations just like you described. Don't know what became of it but as you can see it is a powerfull tool. You fight an entire war and know who is going to win before it ever happens in the physical world. Scary!

[marct]

Hi Rob,

What type of orders pass from bad guy to bad guy? We better get smart on this real quick. We better start training our Intel guys to think along these lines instead of beating them down with conventional Soviet doctrine. Maybe what we need are some SOF like virtual warriors that go in and conduct operations with virtual characters to get the virtual information and conduct virtual DA on virtual targets - my kid who beats my ass in HALO would love that. They'll need to hack in to servers (call it an insertion) and look for stuff that don't look right. I'm not even joking - I think the bad guys are way out infront of us.

China is pushing a good deal of their budget into cyber warfare. We need to consider why - much like our FOB mentality, our response to combatting cyber terror (and supporting activities) is by and large defensive - better Anti-Virus, better firewalls. I think a good part of the enemy wants to keep us that way. This allows them to go out and conduct the rest of their buisness while we stay walled up - we have placed ourselves in our own box - contained and isolated would be the tactical terms - who knows that could have been the intent all along - Sun Tzu writ in 1s and 0s! It reminds me of what the insurgents do here to keep us out of the neighborhoods - hit the MSRs and we will sink more combat power into defending them so the AIF can have freedom of movement in the neighborhoods!

It's all part of the current environment <wry grin>. Seriously, if we get back to the basics on conflict, most of it reduces to a control over "vital resources" however they are currently defined by the techo-cultural system. Right now, that means information, information processing and meaning construction. It's definitely time for a Cyber SF.

Rob, your post sounds like it deserves its own thread. I had no idea it was that pervasive when I saw the show on virtual farming. I just thought it happened in one stinking game.

Good point, JC.

Can these cyber maneuvers and such be small wars in and of themselves? Or are they merely small wars maneuvers conducted on an unfamiliar piece of terrain. I'm not looking for an 4GW, 5GW theoretical answer. My hunch is that this goes way beyond (and more dangerously) than Van Riper and mission type orders issued along with the morning prayers.

I think that the answer would have to be "both". No fancy theory needed, really; just the observation that the virtual worlds that are being created are part of the perceptual environment of large parts of the global population. These worlds contain "resources" of "value" to people and, as such, are just like any other terrain feature to be used, exploited and fought over <shrug>.

Marc

[jonSlack]

Concerning the addictiveness of games for some players: S Korean dies after games session. It is an extreme example, but it happened.

The point is that there is this addictive game out there that has spawned an information/economic network where players of the game will actually pay money to make their virtual character better within the game's construct. They pay their money to brokers of characters and life points, who have in turn developed these virtual goods through Chinese players who do nothing but play the game in shifts (virtual workers).

This is not new. I played a text based MUD while I was in high school (6-8 years ago). At first I played for fun, but then it got boring. But, about the sametime I was learning computer programming. Since the game was completely text driven I was able to write a series of scripts that played the game for me. I would run it in the background while I was doing my homework during the school week. I watched it make my character was not getting attacked by other characters and also in case I was stopped by a Admin (Game rules had no problem with scripting as long as the player was at the keys.)

My character advanced and I banked in game currency. Second half of my senior year I started selling currency and then eventually my character, in total I think I made about 2 grand or so. Currency transactions were arranged through a Yahoo group and the sale of my character was to another player who was putting together a stable of automated characters (She was caught running scripted characters while not at the keyboard and her characters were locked out, she lost all of the money she invested in her "stable" when she got locked out, prolly close to $3,000 or $4,000). All transactions were paid using money orders.

I never paid real money for anything in the game, I just made money.

Again, that was all six to eight years ago. The game I played had maybe 2,000 regular players. Now, World of Warcraft has 8 million players! And that is just one game. There are others out there of equal or just lesser standing like Guild Wars and Lineage to name a couple. It comes as no surprise to me that a sweatshop industry has developed to provide wealthly gamers (Mainly from North America, Western Europe, parts of Asia like ROK and Japan and the wealthier parts of China) with a product they desire. It is supply and demand with the traditional constraints of product delivery and payment handled through the internet. Additionally, the suppliers help to perpetuate themselves because as the amount of currency increases in an environment while the supply of goods increases at a slower rate, you get inflation which in turns requires to buy larger amounts of game currency, and so on.

Small Wars relation... I do not see terrorist groups such as AQ profiting because of the resources involved such as the need for multiple and steady broadband internet connections and up to date computer hardware. Most of the "gold farmers" are based in China and are most likely getting "taxed" by local Party officials, similar, to a protection racket.

Although most of us might not frequent a seedy flea market and pick up an illegal copy of the latest Rocky, do we have the same inhibitions over the Internet?

The online "seedy flea market" is giving the stuff away, not selling it. There is little to no traditional profit in online file trading. Pirate groups do it to compete against each other and to leverage their "0-day releases" into other groups "dumps," and to make a name for their group.

Could perhaps Ebay be the unwitting host of such a network, where bootlegged DVDs, CDs, and other goods are sold as a "brand new, in the box" products and the profits are funnelled into more nefarious activities?

In selling copyright materials, money is made from "brick and mortar" stores in countries where copyright enforcement is lax, at best. The overhead involved in marketing and selling through the internet and transporting copyrighted movies and music is not worth it.

Maybe what we need are some SOF like virtual warriors that go in and conduct operations with virtual characters to get the virtual information and conduct virtual DA on virtual targets - my kid who beats my ass in HALO would love that. They'll need to hack in to servers (call it an insertion) and look for stuff that don't look right. I'm not even joking - I think the bad guys are way out infront of us.

No, we do not need avatar based direct action teams. Most of the online games are run by American firms or by allies. If we have probable cause that insurgents/terrorists are using a MMORPG for communication you get a search warrant for game logs and a wiretap to watch the suspects in the future. The DoD does not need a World of Warcraft special mission unit of druids and rogues.

Honestly though, there are easier ways to securely communicate. There are a number of available cryptographic programs available like PGP. Then there is Steganography.

Rather, as we identify threat websites we need to just sit and watch. Preferably from a connection that cannot be linked back to the government. For AQ type sites, I would use connections from Deerborn, MI or other areas with a large population of Arabs and Muslims, a savvy admin will watch his logs and research where new visitors are coming from based on IP addresses. When you look at the site, you look at where the site links to and build map of the links. If the website has a discussion board like this, you watch it and see who the most credible posters are and attempt to identify them. This is where a government team of crackers would be valuable. When you identify good individual targets, you infilitrate their computer and install a trojan horse and a keylogger. The objective should be study and learn without being noticed, digital tactical/strategic reconnaissance.

One of the major threats out there are Distributed Denial of Service Attacks by "bot nets." Attack of the Bots

I do not think AQ is making internet attacks a major part of their strategy. They use the internet for recruiting and public relations. On the other hand, China appears to be one of the bigger threats out there, India and Russia are probably not far behind either. Additionally, not all attacks are launched by governments. Example of the possible involvement of Russian organized crime. I also remember the back and forth of webpage defacements a couple years back after China forced our plane to land on their island. I also remember a hacker/cracker group declaring "war" on China or maybe Iraq or another nation and then having to back down because they had not realized what they started when they declared their "war." Mainly, that the country they were targeting could/would reach and out and touch them, and not just with a strongly worded email. Additionally, as the link on the Bot Nets above shows, there appears to be a "made to order" DDoS attack market developing out there.

Additionally, I do not think we are completely flat footed: CSI: TCP/IP

One former blackhat says that meeting Christy and his fellow government operatives at DefCon over the years convinced him to switch sides. "When you realize that all the hackers in other countries, especially China, are ganging up on America, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to decide what side you want to be on," he says. After a couple of years working undercover "with, not for" various agencies with three-letter initialisms, he enlisted in the Army.

[Rob Thornton]

jon,
Thanks for the good research. It frames the discussion pretty well.

Rather, as we identify threat websites we need to just sit and watch. Preferably from a connection that cannot be linked back to the government. For AQ type sites, I would use connections from Deerborn, MI or other areas with a large population of Arabs and Muslims, a savvy admin will watch his logs and research where new visitors are coming from based on IP addresses. When you look at the site, you look at where the site links to and build map of the links. If the website has a discussion board like this, you watch it and see who the most credible posters are and attempt to identify them. This is where a government team of crackers would be valuable. When you identify good individual targets, you infilitrate their computer and install a trojan horse and a keylogger. The objective should be study and learn without being noticed, digital tactical/strategic reconnaissance.

That observation there is a good place to start.

Small Wars relation... I do not see terrorist groups such as AQ profiting because of the resources involved such as the need for multiple and steady broadband internet connections and up to date computer hardware. Most of the "gold farmers" are based in China and are most likely getting "taxed" by local Party officials, similar, to a protection racket.

Any thoughts on where the money goes, or how revenue could be spent? It seems a good way to finance allot of stuff.

I do not think AQ is making internet attacks a major part of their strategy. They use the internet for recruiting and public relations. On the other hand, China appears to be one of the bigger threats out there, India and Russia are probably not far behind either. Additionally, not all attacks are launched by governments. Example of the possible involvement of Russian organized crime. I also remember the back and forth of webpage defacements a couple years back after China forced our plane to land on their island. I also remember a hacker/cracker group declaring "war" on China or maybe Iraq or another nation and then having to back down because they had not realized what they started when they declared their "war." Mainly, that the country they were targeting could/would reach and out and touch them, and not just with a strongly worded email. Additionally, as the link on the Bot Nets above shows, there appears to be a "made to order" DDoS attack market developing out there.

You know as far as Coalition contributions could go - if a country like India, or or somewhere that had the labor and networks - they could make a serious contribution hunting down and attacking listed sites - especially if they were paid - there might be allot of unhappy WoW fans though. Politically there'd be flak about using people chained to their desktops in support of GWOT.

[jonSlack]

Any thoughts on where the money goes, or how revenue could be spent? It seems a good way to finance allot of stuff.

"Gold farming" is a legitimate business in my opinion. I'd imagine the money goes toward typical business expenses like labor costs, maintaining and upgrading equipment and other normal mundane legimate expenses along with some to local party officials who are bound to have their hand out. Some workers in China make tangible consumer goods, others "farm gold."

You know as far as Coalition contributions could go - if a country like India, or or somewhere that had the labor and networks - they could make a serious contribution hunting down and attacking listed sites - especially if they were paid - there might be allot of unhappy WoW fans though. Politically there'd be flak about using people chained to their desktops in support of GWOT.

I do not see the purpose in in "attacking" threat websites. RIAA and other copyright agencies attacked and shut down Napster and Kazaa and other similar sites and look happened, they basically forced the creation of the bitTorrent network which is now almost impossible to track and observe, let alone shut down.

The real value in the websites is intelligence like I mentioned in the previous post. If you target them and shut them down you just force them to change their tactics and find better ways to hide from you.

From left field, but if the threat sites happen to be running advertisements like a lot of the blogs do, try buying the ability to display links and banners on the threat website. The links and banners would lead to sites that communicate our side of the story (IO or PSYOP as the case requires.)

A good example of what we should be trying to do is like what Starbucks did in response to Oxfam's Day of Action video on youTube. Starbucks did not threathen to sue and shutdown (attack) youTube or even Oxfam. What they did is used youTube to present their side of the story to the public.

First watch Oxfam's Starbucks Day of Action. Notice, the second clip in the "Related" column is Starbucks' response.

[AFlynn]

The mention of steganography made me think of where I first heard of it: an Alternate Reality Game(ARG). I think the teams of people put together to tackle those puzzles represent some formidable distributed problem-solving capability. Is anyone looking at hiring those guys?

[marct]

The mention of steganography made me think of where I first heard of it: an Alternate Reality Game(ARG). I think the teams of people put together to tackle those puzzles represent some formidable distributed problem-solving capability. Is anyone looking at hiring those guys?

I remember back in "the old days" when I used to run a games design company. Some really bright, out-of-the-box type people were in the industry then. Honestly, I think it has to do with an eclectic mindset more than anything else.

Marc