Afghan Exit:why, how and more in country and beyond

[jcustis]

Entropy, your post leads to an excellent follow-on question for the group.

Assuming we remove all GPF from AFG on schedule, but do continue to try our hand at the ANSF development line of operation on a limited scale and we have some SOF tie-in to deal with AQ, what strategic national interests remain in the support to the country?

The only thing I have seen advertised that makes any sense is preventing a resurgence of AQ, but do you think that's anything we really need to worry about, or anything that would justify substantial expenditure of resources?

Does AFG factor into a larger balance of power issue in the region?

[carl]

Assuming we remove all GPF from AFG on schedule, but do continue to try our hand at the ANSF development line of operation on a limited scale and we have some SOF tie-in to deal with AQ, what strategic national interests remain in the support to the country?

The only thing I have seen advertised that makes any sense is preventing a resurgence of AQ, but do you think that's anything we really need to worry about, or anything that would justify substantial expenditure of resources?

Does AFG factor into a larger balance of power issue in the region?

If Afghanistan were to be retaken by Taliban & Co./Pak Army/ISI we would be back to an Afghanistan controlled by Taliban & Co./Pak Army/ISI as it was before 9-11. Taliban & Co haven't renounced their ideology and the Pak Army/ISI is as it ever was and will be (until India smashes it) so I think it reasonable to expect that it would go back to being the sunny place it was for Islamist terrorists, whether the be AQ or something else. The last time that happened we found it unpleasant.

Not only would they have the safe place to play they had before, they would have a resurgence of morale and motivation that we can't really imagine. These guys are strongly motivated by religious ideology. If they were to take it over again after what could be seen as a decade long trial of their faith in which they were not found wanting...that would be a very big thing. It is my opinion that that would be seen as a sign from the almighty that the way they have been following has divine approval (even more than now) and they would strive to go on to bigger and better things.

What effect that would have can't be precisely predicted or quantified but I can't see how the effect wouldn't be a big one and one that would affect us.

All of the above assumes those guys will prevail in Afghanistan. I don't know if that will happen considering that India, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Stans are quite interested in what transpires there.