Side story on the recent gun spree

[Fuchs]

in 1850 and for a long time after there was still a frontier in the US. There wasn't in Europe.

Depends on whether one counts the whole of Russia in such statistics.

So that is what has gone wrong in the recent past, the collapse of the black family has resulted in a murder rate in the black community that is wildly disproportionate with the rest of the US.

Others (who rather don't work in 'values'-centric organisations) tend to point a lot at drugs, or the 'war' on the same.
One could also point at a crisis of the middle class or at urbanisation, albeit neither is really unique to the US.

[carl]

Depends on whether one counts the whole of Russia in such statistics.

Good point about Russia...but I talked about Europe and I don't believe much of Eurpean Russia would have been considered a frontier.

Others (who rather don't work in 'values'-centric organisations) tend to point a lot at drugs, or the 'war' on the same.
One could also point at a crisis of the middle class or at urbanisation, albeit neither is really unique to the US.

They may do that, but that leads to the question of what leads to the proclivity to drug use and criminal behavior? In the US, the best predictor for both is families headed by un-wed mothers.

No you can't point to the crisis of the middle class (whatever that is) because the middle class doesn't commit many murders, the underclass does. And the US has been pretty urbanized for a long time.

Besides you asked what went wrong. I gave you my opinion in response.

[davidbfpo]

Bill Bratton, the once famous Police Commissioner in New York and Los Angeles, is the only US veteran police leader often cited in the UK media, partly due to his influence on UK police leaders.

On the 18th the WSJ published an article based on speaking to him: 'William Bratton: The Real Cures for Gun Violence':http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...614388346.html

Mr. Bratton predicts that "the most successful focus is going to be on the licensing and background checks. Because that's the heart of the problem—who gets access to the guns?...Clearly a large number of people who shouldn't have firearms actually apply through the process and obtain firearms." He also argues that Congress ought to confirm a permanent director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms for the first time since 2006.

But the gun reform that truly gets Mr. Bratton fired up is one you don't hear much about these days. It is what he calls "certainty of punishment," or stricter gun-crime sentences.

[jmm99]

Mr. Bratton (inadvertently ?) disclosed, in his comments on ammo "clips" (his usage), what he really wants:

He says he'd support "anything that reduces the number of rounds in a clip." In an attack like the one in Newtown, Conn., Mr. Bratton says, the faster a deranged killer can shoot, the more damage he can do—and the less time is allowed for the police to arrive. "Oftentimes it is in the changing of a clip that the opportunity presents itself for stopping. What's the right number—seven, 10, 15? Who knows? The right number is no bullets in the clip, but that's not going to happen."

No bullets mean an inoperable firearm; which equals a firearms ban - e.g. (sort of like) Australia, or where New York (state and city) may well be headed.

However, he did bring up two points which I believe are worth discussing; that is, he and I have at least a common framework in them.

One was a very brief comment (allegation) of prevalent failed background checks:

"Clearly a large number of people who shouldn't have firearms actually apply through the process and obtain firearms."

That assertion is unsupported in the WSJ article. I'd like to know the "large number"; but more so, the reasons why felons (etc.) are slipping through the bureaucratic process. If Bratton speaks factually, this is then one area where substantial improvements can be made - without passing a passle of new laws.

His other point (finding my agreement) was the current failure to prosecute crimes of illegal possession and illegal use under existing gun laws:

But the gun reform that truly gets Mr. Bratton fired up is one you don't hear much about these days. It is what he calls "certainty of punishment," or stricter gun-crime sentences.

"People are out on the streets who should be in jail. Jail is appropriate for anyone who uses a gun in the commission of an act of violence. Some cities have a deplorable lack of attention to this issue," he says, citing Philadelphia.

In Chicago, where the murder rate rose 16% last year, "to try to put someone in jail for gun-related activity you really have to go the extra mile," he says. "If there's one crime for which there has to be a certainty of punishment, it is gun violence." He ticks off other places where help is needed: "Oakland, Chicago, D.C., Baltimore—all have gangs whose members have no capacity for caring about life and respect for life. Someone like that? Put 'em in jail. Get 'em off the streets. Keep people safe."

Again, new laws are not required, but prosecutions under existing laws are.

Unfortunately, gun prosecutions are uneven and generally down-trending. These stories (one 2011, one 2013) are exceptions which seem to prove the trend. Kan. ranks 3rd nationally in gun prosecutions - U.S. Attorney: Turn over the armed felons to us (AP, Roxana Hageman, January 11, 2013):

WICHITA — The U.S. attorney’s office in Kansas has filed so many firearms cases that the state ranked third last year among the 93 judicial districts nationwide in the numbers of gun prosecutions, Justice Department figures show.

Only Puerto Rico and the Western District of Texas had more federal gun prosecutions than Kansas in the fiscal year ending September 2012.

Kansas was first in the nation in gun prosecutions in 2011, but fell to third place in 2012 despite prosecutors filing even more cases.

U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom credits the growing number of gun prosecutions in the state to his office urging local law enforcement agencies to refer to federal prosecutors cases of convicted felons who are unlawfully in possession of firearms — even when they do not have enough evidence to pursue other state charges.

Grissom told the Wichita Pachyderm Club on Friday that he told the local agencies, “If they are felons and you can pull them over and they are armed, give them to us and we will cut them out of your community. You can have a huge impact on the crime rate.”

Federal prosecutors in Kansas filed gun-related charges against 447 people last year, up nearly 85 percent from the average of the four previous years. Firearms prosecutions nationwide remained relatively flat during that time, with 11,728 defendants charged last year.

and Federal firearms prosecutions decline in U.S., but surge in Mobile; why? (Brendan Kirby, Press-Register, Monday, May 16, 2011):

MOBILE, Alabama -- Federal firearms prosecutions, on a steady decline nationwide in recent times, hit a decade-long low in January. Not in Mobile, though, where U.S. prosecutors brought more guns cases in 6 months than they did the entire previous fiscal year.

For 4 of those months, the judicial district that includes 13 southwest Alabama counties had the nation’s highest per capita rate of firearms prosecutions.

To prosecutors and law enforcement leaders, the data shows that federal-local cooperation is taking dangerous criminals off the streets. To some defense lawyers, it demonstrates an overreach by a justice system that’s trying to burnish its reputation.

U.S. Attorney Kenyen Brown said, “I think it sends a clear message: If you are a felon and you have a gun, law enforcement will investigate you and the U.S. Attorney’s Office will prosecute you.”

The down trend extended through FY 2010. Based on the SU TRAC database, FY 2011 continued the downtrend, but FY 2012 appeared to show an upswing.

FY 2011
Decline in Federal Prosecutions from ATF-Led Investigations

(24 Oct 2011) During the first ten months of FY 2011, federal prosecutions credited to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) have fallen almost 7 percent from the previous fiscal year. This continues a downward slide that began six years ago, according to TRAC's analysis of timely Justice Department data.

So far this fiscal year, the number of ATF-led investigations that resulted in prosecution have totaled 7,282. If the same pace continues for the remaining two months, criminal filings should reach 8,738. This would be 18 percent fewer than the peak in FY 2005 of 10,715 ATF prosecutions during the Bush Administration.

FY 2012
ATF Prosecutions Turning Around in FY 2012

(31 Jul 2012) The latest available data from the Justice Department show that, during the first eight months of FY 2012, the number of prosecutions for weapons and other offenses referred by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) has staged a turnaround. While these prosecutions have fallen steadily after reaching a peak in FY 2005, the latest government figures show an upward trend, with 6,258 new matters filed so far during FY 2012. If this pace continues, FY 2012 will see 9,387 ATF prosecutions, an increase of 5.9 percent over FY 2011.

With 142 ATF prosecutions per million population, the Southern District of Alabama led the nation on a per-capita basis, with more than four times the national average. The Eastern District of North Carolina saw 242 ATF prosecutions, more than any other judicial district, followed by Kansas with 232.

The US attorneys in Mr Bratton's targets (Philadelphia, Oakland, Chicago, D.C., Baltimore) may argue they have more important things to do.

The bottom line is that even a gun-banner (Mr Bratton) and a very retired small time target shooter (JMM99) can find points of agreement.

Regards

Mike

[motorfirebox]

It's worth pointing out that "enforcing existing laws" means more than simply getting law enforcement off its ass. The ATF--the primary federal organ for dealing with illegal firearms--has been without permanent leadership for six years due to, bluntly, the NRA's meddling. You've got the USA's office in Reno actually refusing to prosecute ATF cases. ATF funding has been cut and cut and cut, again at the behest of gun lobbyists. There is a roadblock to enforcing existing gun laws, and that roadblock is the NRA.

[Steve Blair]

Sorry...but there's no single roadblock (be it the "evil" NRA or the "evil" ATF) to enforcing firearms laws. Cook County Illinois has a track record of either early release or pleading down cases involving firearms (Second City Cop has much on this). JMM points this out quite well above.

[Firn]

The trend is certainly interesting and a bit surprising. As we have seen according to the stats felons with (hand)guns are responsible for a high percentage of the gun violence, especially murders in big cities. So a seemingly relative simple tool in the fight against it would be a strict enforcement of the laws concerning felons and their most dangerous tools.

BTW: As I understood Mr.Bratton he was talking that in the case of a deranged killer no bullets in a clip would be the best option as it makes it more cumbersome to kill many persons. I can fully agree with that scenario.