Iran & AQ: a safe haven or holding cell?

[davidbfpo]

From a FP email:

He was first arrested in Turkey last month and was then detained by American officials during a stopover in Jordan after Turkish authorities deported him to Kuwait.

I am sure FP is wrong on the US role in Jordan; detained by the Jordanians under the existing extradition agreement and once that process was completed onto a flight to NYC. Looks like some deft diplomacy and LE coordination.

Link via FP:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/wo...kkgEfhNLiwpxoQ

Intelligence officials have long debated how the group of operatives — several who are members of Al Qaeda’s “shura council” — has been treated inside Iran, and his trial could shed light on its members’ lives there. Some officials described them as being under a kind of house arrest, and point out that Iran — a country run by a Shiite Muslim theocracy — would be wary of any alliance with Al Qaeda, a Sunni terrorist network. Others believe that Iran might at least be using the group to keep open communication channels with senior Qaeda leaders in Pakistan.

NYT notes several trials are now due in NYC; well I'll wait till they do appear in court.

[davidbfpo]

An impressive, detailed explanation on Jihadica, with links to interviews of those who had been in Iran and more:http://www.jihadica.com/abu-ghaith-a...ction-in-iran/

sources suggest that these men constituted a dissident faction within al-Qa’ida, one which in recent years had become increasingly vocal in their criticism of Bin Ladin, Zawahiri, and the direction that the latter had taken al-Qa’ida since the September 11 attacks.

It appears on my first quick read that Iran might have been a far safer place to be - from AQ - than anywhere else.

[davidbfpo]

An odd update by CWOT and a long way from Iran itself 'Strange “al Qaeda in Iran” supported plot disrupted in Canada':http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=1052&go...mber_234872530

A very thin report on the arrests:http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Globa...tor+%7C+World)

[davidbfpo]

An update from Reuters, with some interesting comments by ex-insiders, notably IISS's Nigel Inkster and a short reference to the Canadian case:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93N18720130424

[davidbfpo]

Within a much broader paper on the future of AQ, by the Canadian CSIS, is this passage:

In addition, at least a dozen or more key Core Al-Qaeda personnel are still being sheltered in Iran, including Saif al-Adl. If allowed their freedom, they could easily strengthen the existing central
leadership.

Link:https://www.csis.gc.ca/pblctns/cdmct...130501_eng.pdf

[bourbon]

The Master Terrorist We Gave Away, by Christopher Dickey. The Daily Beast, May 28, 2013.

It has been a while since we heard directly from "the architect of global jihad," "the mufti of murder," the apostle of "individualized terror" known by his nom de guerre Abu Musab al-Suri. Indeed, most people outside jihadist circles have never heard of him at all.

But thanks to the shadowy practices of the Bush administration in its global war on terror, this Syrian-born former adviser to Osama bin Laden is now at large— and an inspiration to a whole new generation of killers, including, it would seem, those in Boston and London.

[davidbfpo]

Chatting to a London-based open source analyst this week a reference was made to al-Suri. The analyst was convinced he was still in official Syrian detention; no mention of him was being made on "likely suspect" websites or chat rooms and for the Jihadists he was a possible national, Syrian born leader - so why should he be released. In response I wondered in the absence of news, was al-Suri actually dead?