Iran & AQ: a safe haven or holding cell?

[davidbfpo]

Chatting to a London-based open source analyst this week a reference was made to al-Suri. The analyst was convinced he was still in official Syrian detention; no mention of him was being made on "likely suspect" websites or chat rooms and for the Jihadists he was a possible national, Syrian born leader - so why should he be released. In response I wondered in the absence of news, was al-Suri actually dead?

[davidbfpo]

Within a wider article is a fascinating glimpse of how the USG regards al-Suri:

Al-Suri is out there somewhere. He was said to have been rendered to Syria by the CIA after his 2005 capture in Pakistan, but President Bashar al-Assad reportedly released him. Today his whereabouts remain a mystery. "We don't even know for sure that he was released," says the intelligence expert contracted to the Pentagon, who is privy to classified reports on al-Suri. "The Syrian government announced that they let him go, but there have been no sightings and little chatter about him." With the United States calling for Assad's overthrow—despite signing a pact with him banning chemical weapons—it stands to reason that the Syrian dictator would relish seeing the jihadists he is fighting turning their attention to American targets. Yet even the senior diplomatic, intelligence, and defense officials who run the U.S. government's "Rewards for Justice" program, which offers money for tips leading to top terrorists, are unsure whether al-Suri is at large: A State Department official told National Journal this week that defense and intelligence agencies are still discussing whether to put him back on the wanted list.

Link:http://www.nationaljournal.com/magaz...laden-20131114

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to War on the Rocks for a sign to read The Long War Journal, even if there is this caveat:

A message purportedly written by Ayman al Zawahiri's top representative in Syria, Abu Khalid al Suri, was posted on jihadist websites yesterday. The message has been translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, which notes that it "could not be authenticated." Therefore, we do not know if this message is really from al Suri.

The message (clipped) starts with:

Sheikh Abu Musab al-Suri, may Allah release him...

Then TLW's commentary:

First, the writer mentions Abu Musab al Suri (Mustafa Setmariam Nasar), who is a major al Qaeda ideologue and Abu Khalid al Suri's longtime companion. The phrasing "may Allah release him" means that the author believes Abu Musab al Suri is still imprisoned. According to other sources, Abu Khalid does believe that his compatriot is in custody. This is interesting because there have been credible reports that Abu Musab was let out of prison in the wake of the Syrian uprising. We've cited those reports at The Long War Journal but careful readers will note that we added a caveat (see the note at the bottom here, for example), because we can't be sure one way or the other.

Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat...#ixzz2rc2NkEO8

[davidbfpo]

A "radical" and former UK-based militant, Moazzam Begg, has a column on foreign fighters (subject of a thread) and within is this passage:

One of the leaders of Ahrar al-Sham is Abu Khalid al-Suri, an associate of mujahideen ideologue Mustafa Setmariam Nasser (aka Abu Musab al-Suri) who was arrested by Pakistani forces in 2005 and handed over to US authorities as part of the War on Terror. Through the US rendition programme Abu Musab al-Suri was sent to the Asad regime. Both men remained in Syrian custody until the former was released in 2011 while the latter’s whereabouts remained a mystery.

Link:http://www.cageprisoners.com/our-wor...-war-on-terror

[davidbfpo]

The Long War Journal reviews the AQ-Iranian relationship and concludes:

Al Qaeda's Iran-based network continues to operate despite the war in Syria.

Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...#ixzz2s5t4XOo3

[davidbfpo]

Catching up I found this Long War Journal report, dated May 12th 2014:

In a response to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri's latest attempt at reconciliation with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al Adnani made a startling admission: Al Qaeda has ordered its fighters and branches to refrain from attacking the Iranian state in order to preserve the terror group's network in the country.

Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat...#ixzz32Aoe7X6g

[OUTLAW 09]

Catching up I found this Long War Journal report, dated May 12th 2014:

Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat...#ixzz32Aoe7X6g

David----this is not a surprise as both the Sunni/AQI and Shia insurgent groups in Iraq after 2008 were buying and selling HME among themselves as the Sunni's had developed into major explosive producers (tens of tons of HME) and they purchased on a number of times finished EFPs or EFP components from the Shia groups for use in their IED attacks against US Forces as the EFPs turned out to be one of the most feared IED types in Iraq.