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Thread: Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Kashmir militants give up fight and head home

    This insurgency has faded from the limelight for a long time, partly as Pakistan has restricted militants crossing the LoC into India-occupied Kashmir for years and Jihadists have focussed on Afghanistan.

    Anecdote here (UK) indicates suggests dwindling support for the campaign, reflected in monies raised and Jihadists who seek to fight go elsewhere.

    So it is with interest I read this BBC Urdu report, which opens with:
    Twenty years after they took up arms to fight Indian rule in the Kashmir valley, hundreds of local insurgents are now returning to their homes after renouncing militancy. The reasons are diminishing support from the Pakistani government, a realisation that the "Kashmir jihad" is going nowhere and a promise of amnesty by the Indian government.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18270058

    Astute move by the Indian state to accept the returning militants and families. Be interesting to see how LeT and other, more militant groups change their rhetoric within Pakistan as this struggle was the original catalyst for their emergence.
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    600 apply for Jammu and Kashmir’s terrorist amnesty plan

    “My government has provided a legal mechanism for those who have crossed over to other side of the LoC during militancy and want to return and live a normal life. Some 600 applications have been received so far which are being scrutinised”, the chief minister said.

    Under the policy approved by the cabinet on November 22, the government has decided to facilitate the return of former militants who belong to J&K and had crossed over the PoK or Pakistan for training in insurgency but now have given up arms.

    Only those militants who crossed over to PoK and Pakistan between January 1 1989 and December 31 2009 and their dependents will be eligible for this scheme. They or their parents can apply online also. Also, the returnee shall not be entitled to any of the special benefits or privileges available in the existing surrender/rehabilitation policy.
    http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report...y-plan_1514771

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    David, it seems to me (and of course, I am not privy to any inside info in these matters) that the hardcore paknationalist faction within the Pakistani state (and ultimately LET, or at least its leadership, will do what it is told by this faction) is still waiting for the US to leave so that things can "get back to normal". Of course, things will never really get back to where they were, but the dream is not yet dead. Individual Kashmiri origin militants may get tired and wish to go home, but:
    1. The Paknationalist-Jihadist complex hopes to fight another day.
    2. "Home" is also India, not exactly the most capable state in the world. There is likely to be enough mismanagement, corruption and incompetence in the program to keep the flickering flame of insurgency alive. I am not saying the program won't work at all. Things are slowly getting better in Kashmir and will probably get better even if there is a Paknationalist attempt to turn back the clock...but I am just guessing that the "good news" will likely be tempered by some rather un-German efficiency at the Indian end. (I am personally hoping that I turn out to be wrong..if that makes any sense...I think most Indians, Pakistanis and particularly Kashmiris will be better off if this whole liberation jihad is put to bed)
    Something like that.
    Last edited by omarali50; 06-01-2012 at 01:30 PM.

  4. #4
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Insurgency melting away

    A long BBC News report from Kashmir, which is full of gems on a conflict de-escalating, due to state and non-state action or attitudes:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19168219

    These displaced Kashmiris - who number more than 36,000 in all, according to officials in Pakistani-administered Kashmir - find themselves increasingly alienated as Pakistan mends fences with India, and the insurgency winds down to a mere shadow of what it once was....

    On the Pakistani side, communities along the LoC who had virtually lived in bunkers for 16 years rose up in protest against any hint of militant activity that might endanger the ceasefire. These protests forced local authorities to relocate militants to areas away from the border region.

    These [Pakistani] groups cannot keep the insurgency going, because they cannot operate without local support..
    davidbfpo

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    Default Background reading on Azad Kashmir

    A book review on a country that rarely gets much attention today, the book being 'The Untold Story of the People of Azad Kashmir' by Christopher Snedden. Only Pakistan recognises Azad Kashmir is an independent country IIRC.

    Link:http://tahirabbas101.wordpress.com/2...-azad-kashmir/

    The book is likely to be a tremendous value to historians of the region as well as sociologists and political scientists exploring the important developments in Azad Kashmir from the time of partition to the present.
    davidbfpo

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