Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[davidbfpo]

I did spot a BBC headline, but was distracted from reading. So thanks to Shashank Joshi's Twitter (ex-RUSI, now The Economist's defence correspondent) for a reminder how dangerous the situation is.

So what happened? This is a wide-ranging report that starts with:

Over 40 jawans of the paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed on Thursday when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden SUV into the CRPF convoy on the Srinagar-Jammu highway. In terms of casualties, this was probably the deadliest attack by a terror group against Indian security forces in Kashmir.Pakistan-based JeM took responsibility for the attack in a statement to a local news agency in Kashmir. The group also identified the suicide bomber as a resident of Kashmir’s Pulwama.

Link:https://thewire.in/diplomacy/pulwama...mohammed/amp/?

A reminder of JeM's past:

Jaish-e-Mohammed has carried out a series of terror strikes since then, including one in December 2001, that almost led to war. JeM terrorists attacked India’s Parliament and the Vajpayee government mobilized the Indian army, which led to a nine-month standoff.

Link:https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/02/ar...hmir-car-bomb/

The BBC has a wide-ranging report, which includes:

Indian media reports said that at about 15:15 local time (09:45 GMT) a car carrying between 300 and 350kg (660-770lb) of explosives struck a convoy of about 70 vehicles that was carrying about 2,500 troops to the Kashmir Valley.

Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47240660


Needless to say Pakistan denies any involvement, but IMHO must be dismayed at the level of diplomatic support for India.

The main thread for Kashmir is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?17280-Kashmir-a-simmering-sometimes-brutal-small-war/page5

[davidbfpo]

Not to overlook the Iranian accusations that Baluch separatist insurgents (Jaish ul-Adl) are blamed for:

Iran has warned Saudi Arabia and the UAE and pressed Pakistan for action over Wednesday’s bombing that killed 27 Revolutionary Guards and wounded 13. An assailant drove an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying the troops in Sistan-Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, near the Pakistan border.

Link:https://eaworldview.com/2019/02/iran...ionary-guards/

Just to make matters complicated KSA's King and Crown Prince are currently visiting Pakistan.

[Bill Moore]

Eventually, the Pakistan government/military is going to pay a severe price for their continued support of terrorist activities. Unfortunately, the Pakistani people have and will continue to pay a high price for the backwardness of their leaders. Of course, rising tensions between two nuclear powers is never a good thing, especially when their strategic cultures are shaped by emotion as much as reason. Are so it appears to me.

Since Pakistan refuses a responsible state, maybe the best option is India and Iran collaborate to take over Pakistani territory, and divide the territory. While unrealistic, such a bold move over time could help stabilize Afghanistan and remove one state sponsor of terrorism from the scene.

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter:

Iran & India suffered from two heinous terrorist attacks in the past few days resulted in big casualties. Today in my meeting with Sushma Swaraj the Indian FM, when she had a stopover in Tehran, we agreed on close cooperation to combat terrorism in the region. Enough is enough!

Link to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's Tweet:https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/1096802730881048578

From the BBC the background to the KSA visit to Pakistan:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47255560

[davidbfpo]

Spotted via Twitter an open access article in 'International Security' which is relevant, particularly as the author contends India's NFU policy could be undermined. The actual title: India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine and Capabilities. Link:https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec_a_0034

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this overview, with plenty of links. Did JeM act without a "guiding hand" or the absence of restraint?
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/dr...-implications/

[Bill Moore]

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ajor-war-45017

This Is How the Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War

The author lists a number reasons this particular attack could escalate, ranging from President Trump's reliance on Pakistan to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban and the upcoming elections in India combined with public anger in India demanding a response. The author thinks Pakistan is relying too much on its nuclear deterrent.

What makes the situation very dangerous is that while both countries are nuclear powers, there is a marked imbalance in their conventional military capacity that is tilted in India’s favor. This is the major reason why Pakistan has refused to subscribe to the “no first use” nuclear doctrine thus introducing great uncertainty into the India-Pakistan conflict. Furthermore, unlike in India, nuclear weapons and delivery systems in Pakistan are under the control of the military top brass and the civilian government does not have any say on when and how they will be used.

This projected action-reaction dynamic can easily graduate to the nuclear level if Pakistan decides to take recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, which it has stockpiled, if it finds itself unable to withstand India’s conventional power. Once this happens, it is difficult to predict where the escalatory process will end.

One would hope that rational leaders would avoid escalating to nuclear war, but then again I have seen a lot of irrational decision making in S. Asia based more on emotion than reason. If it does escalate, we have to own our role in this situation, because we provided some degree of protection to Pakistan since 9/11 to facilitate our forever war in Afghanistan. Once again we were blinded by the tactical picture, so we couldn't see the strategic picture.