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Thread: Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

  1. #81
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    India conducted surgical strikes last night along#the LoC to safeguard our nation, the Defence Ministry said on Thursday. “Significant casualties have been caused to terrorists and those trying to shield them. We don’t have a plan to further conduct such strikes. India has spoken to Pakistan,” DGMO Lt Gen Ranbir Singh said.
    “Based on receiving specific and credible inputs that some terrorist teams had positioned themselves at launch pads along Line of Control to carryout infiltration and conduct terrorist strikes inside Jammu and Kashmir and in various metros in other states, the Indian Army conducted surgical strikes at several of these launch pads to pre-empt infiltration by terrorists. The operations were focussed on ensuring that these terrorists do not succeed in their design to cause destruction and endanger the lives of our citizens.
    http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...istry-3055715/
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


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  2. #82
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Across the aisle: Kashmir is sliding into disaster

    Kashmir has been "bubbling along" for awhile, with occasional reports in the media I use, so thanks to Twitter for the pointer to this commentary by a former Indian Home Minister; which is sub-titled:
    The writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir.
    He writes:
    he writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir. We cannot retrieve the situation through a ‘muscular’ policy — tough talk by ministers, dire warnings from the Army Chief, deploying more troops or killing more protesters.
    Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...aster-4614675/

    A "lurker" added:
    The assessment is correct. The Hindu Central government's only aim is to suppress Muslims and they feel that strong arm tactics will solve the Valley problem. But the situation is explosive. Pakistan is very happy that we are creating our own problems.
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  3. #83
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    Default Should We Talk to the "Stone Throwers" in the Valley?

    An Indian SME commentary on the situation in Kashmir and the apparent decision by the Indian national government to:
    ...adapt the “strong arm strategy” of the Israeli government of ignoring the Palestinians since 2001.

    (Later) All these would indicate that blindly following the Israeli strategy as our counter-terrorist tactics would be totally inadvisable.
    Link:http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/N...-in-the-Valley
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-03-2017 at 11:56 AM. Reason: 52,232v
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  4. #84
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    I suspect India will learn (or just observe) the same lesson Israel should have learnt, which is the strategy of escalate to de-escalate is usually ineffective. Not only will generate more resistance, it also risks pushing divided anti-government actors together under common cause. There are no simple answers to complex problems.

  5. #85
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    Default Peace on Earth, Goodwill to man, somethingsomething

    At least four Indian soldiers were killed Saturday in Pakistani firing along the highly militarized de facto border that divides the disputed region of Kashmir between the nuclear-armed rivals, Indian officials said.
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...shmir-51967358
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  6. #86
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default IS about to open a new branch in Kashmir

    Via a Twitter account @Minalami for a Jihadism specialist and Editorial Lead/team manager @ BBC Monitoring:
    Online accounts affiliated with so-called Islamic State (IS) have shared a video showing a pledge of allegiance to the group made by “mujahidin in Kashmir”, possibly paving the way for an IS declaration of a new branch there.
    There are a dozen tweets giving more details.

    Also covered in this Israeli online publication:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/...er-21-27-2017/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-28-2017 at 06:22 PM. Reason: 68,340v Add 2nd link
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  7. #87
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    Default An Idea or a Threat? Islamic State Jammu & Kashmir

    Almost a Part Two to the above post; this time from CTC @ West Point and part of the conclusion:
    It currently remains to be seen if the ISJK morphs into something larger than an idea or whether it simply remains an online propaganda channel. The likelihood that ISJK inspires a sufficiently large number of young Kashmiris to stimulate an entire new wave of jihad in Jammu and Kashmir seems unlikely, at least in the short term. The real threat lies in ISJK effectively radicalizing Kashmiri youth via its social media campaign and coordinating activity through digital networks, which can give way to heightened terrorism, extreme tactics, and sectarian attacks.
    Link:https://ctc.usma.edu/idea-threat-isl...jammu-kashmir/

    One must wonder how Pakistan will respond to such a development, given that ISJK is reportedly anti-Pakistani. Would Pakistan encourage, if not direct, the existing Kashmiri groups to violently respond to the new group?

    Watch and wait for the likes of us.
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  8. #88
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    Meantime the insurgency continues, not stone-throwing, an armed assault on an army camp last Saturday, with three soldiers killed and families threatened.
    Link:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/62868028.cms
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-27-2018 at 10:41 AM. Reason: 76,183v today
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  9. #89
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    Default Blind To The Valley Central government seems to be misreading the crisis in Kashmir

    An Indian SME commentary that ends with:
    The Modi government should listen to professional advice in formulating its Kashmir policy. The results of wrong policies are borne by the security forces, not to mention the Valley public. In August 2016, Northern Army Commander, Lt. General D S Hooda, recommended that “all” including separatists and student protestors should “sit down and see if we can find an end”. Even DGP (J&K), S P Vaid, told a prominent weekly on April 12, 2018 that “talks, including with neighbour Pakistan, was the only solution to Kashmir issue.
    Missed from the article due to space was this and provided by the author:
    It is the global experience that security forces get demoralized if they are asked to face prolonged insurgency during which they are forced at act against their own citizens.
    Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...alley-5153288/
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  10. #90
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    Default Kashmir’s War Gets Smaller, Dirtier and More Intimate

    A NYT article reflecting time on the ground, even if clearly much of it with Indian security forces. One small passage, the context being the funeral of a dead militant - the focus of the article:
    One woman who identified herself as a separatist leader looked out at the sea of mourners and gravely smiled.“We are winning,” she said. “These bodies are our assets.”
    Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/w...pakistan.html?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-02-2018 at 10:42 AM. Reason: 83,756v today
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  11. #91
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    Default India -v- Pakistan: has the "fuse" been lit after 40 dead policemen?

    I did spot a BBC headline, but was distracted from reading. So thanks to Shashank Joshi's Twitter (ex-RUSI, now The Economist's defence correspondent) for a reminder how dangerous the situation is.

    So what happened? This is a wide-ranging report that starts with:
    Over 40 jawans of the paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed on Thursday when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden SUV into the CRPF convoy on the Srinagar-Jammu highway. In terms of casualties, this was probably the deadliest attack by a terror group against Indian security forces in Kashmir.Pakistan-based JeM took responsibility for the attack in a statement to a local news agency in Kashmir. The group also identified the suicide bomber as a resident of Kashmir’s Pulwama.
    Link:https://thewire.in/diplomacy/pulwama...mohammed/amp/?

    A reminder of JeM's past:
    Jaish-e-Mohammed has carried out a series of terror strikes since then, including one in December 2001, that almost led to war. JeM terrorists attacked India’s Parliament and the Vajpayee government mobilized the Indian army, which led to a nine-month standoff.
    Link:https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/02/ar...hmir-car-bomb/

    The BBC has a wide-ranging report, which includes:
    Indian media reports said that at about 15:15 local time (09:45 GMT) a car carrying between 300 and 350kg (660-770lb) of explosives struck a convoy of about 70 vehicles that was carrying about 2,500 troops to the Kashmir Valley.
    Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47240660


    Needless to say Pakistan denies any involvement, but IMHO must be dismayed at the level of diplomatic support for India.

    The main thread for Kashmir is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?17280-Kashmir-a-simmering-sometimes-brutal-small-war/page5

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  12. #92
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    Not to overlook the Iranian accusations that Baluch separatist insurgents (Jaish ul-Adl) are blamed for:
    Iran has warned Saudi Arabia and the UAE and pressed Pakistan for action over Wednesday’s bombing that killed 27 Revolutionary Guards and wounded 13. An assailant drove an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying the troops in Sistan-Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, near the Pakistan border.
    Link:https://eaworldview.com/2019/02/iran...ionary-guards/

    Just to make matters complicated KSA's King and Crown Prince are currently visiting Pakistan.
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  13. #93
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    Eventually, the Pakistan government/military is going to pay a severe price for their continued support of terrorist activities. Unfortunately, the Pakistani people have and will continue to pay a high price for the backwardness of their leaders. Of course, rising tensions between two nuclear powers is never a good thing, especially when their strategic cultures are shaped by emotion as much as reason. Are so it appears to me.

    Since Pakistan refuses a responsible state, maybe the best option is India and Iran collaborate to take over Pakistani territory, and divide the territory. While unrealistic, such a bold move over time could help stabilize Afghanistan and remove one state sponsor of terrorism from the scene.
    Last edited by Bill Moore; 02-16-2019 at 09:37 PM.

  14. #94
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    Default A two front combination

    Via Twitter:
    Iran & India suffered from two heinous terrorist attacks in the past few days resulted in big casualties. Today in my meeting with Sushma Swaraj the Indian FM, when she had a stopover in Tehran, we agreed on close cooperation to combat terrorism in the region. Enough is enough!
    Link to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's Tweet:https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/1096802730881048578

    From the BBC the background to the KSA visit to Pakistan:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47255560
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2019 at 06:56 PM.
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    Spotted via Twitter an open access article in 'International Security' which is relevant, particularly as the author contends India's NFU policy could be undermined. The actual title: India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine and Capabilities. Link:https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec_a_0034
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2019 at 06:56 PM.
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  16. #96
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    Hat tip to WoTR for this overview, with plenty of links. Did JeM act without a "guiding hand" or the absence of restraint?
    Link:https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/dr...-implications/
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    Default Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ajor-war-45017

    This Is How the Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War

    The author lists a number reasons this particular attack could escalate, ranging from President Trump's reliance on Pakistan to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban and the upcoming elections in India combined with public anger in India demanding a response. The author thinks Pakistan is relying too much on its nuclear deterrent.

    What makes the situation very dangerous is that while both countries are nuclear powers, there is a marked imbalance in their conventional military capacity that is tilted in India’s favor. This is the major reason why Pakistan has refused to subscribe to the “no first use” nuclear doctrine thus introducing great uncertainty into the India-Pakistan conflict. Furthermore, unlike in India, nuclear weapons and delivery systems in Pakistan are under the control of the military top brass and the civilian government does not have any say on when and how they will be used.

    This projected action-reaction dynamic can easily graduate to the nuclear level if Pakistan decides to take recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, which it has stockpiled, if it finds itself unable to withstand India’s conventional power. Once this happens, it is difficult to predict where the escalatory process will end.
    One would hope that rational leaders would avoid escalating to nuclear war, but then again I have seen a lot of irrational decision making in S. Asia based more on emotion than reason. If it does escalate, we have to own our role in this situation, because we provided some degree of protection to Pakistan since 9/11 to facilitate our forever war in Afghanistan. Once again we were blinded by the tactical picture, so we couldn't see the strategic picture.

  18. #98
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The end or the beginning?

    An Indian news website report and note Shashank Joshi, of The Economist tweeted:
    So an airstrike not just in Pakistan-administered Kashmir but in undisputed Pakistani territory. A significant escalation
    Link:https://www.firstpost.com/india/surg...e-6154391.html

    Well India claims to have struck a JeM training base, which Pakistan denies:
    A top Indian minister said strikes targeted a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group in Balakot. Pakistan said the strikes hit an empty area but vowed to respond.
    Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-4736671
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2019 at 06:56 PM.
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  19. #99
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    Updates via Shashank Joshi's tweets and unconfirmed:
    Sources: The weapons used by the Indian Air Force was the Spice 2000, an Israeli smart munition with a range of about 100 kms. Incredible weapon. Is pre-fed imagery of the target which it identifies and then strikes after being dropped from an IAF platform
    Another cautionary Tweet:
    What we know: 1. The Pakistan army regularly lies through its teeth. (Remember Abbottabad.) 2. Much of the Indian media exaggerates wildly. (Remember nutty demonetization.) 3. Social media mobs in both countries view skepticism as a form of treason.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2019 at 06:12 PM.
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  20. #100
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    NEW DELHI: India carried out pre-dawn air strikes on terror training camps across the Line of Control on Tuesday, two weeks after 40 soldiers were killed in a terror attack in Kashmir's Pulwama. At around 3:30 this morning, 12 Mirage 2000 fighter jets of the Indian Air Force dropped 1,000 kg bombs on terror camps of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen.
    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indi...waited-1999291
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

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