Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[omarali50]

IF even 50% of various accounts (like this one, most detailed yet: http://www.telegraphindia.com/113010...p#.UOziJ47R1SU ) are true we most likely had usual ### for tat shenanigans until yesterday, but beheading is a definite extreme provocation. If that is what happened (that persons in Pak army uniforms crossed the border and beheaded one or maybe two Indian soldiers) then possibilities would include:
1. Hot-headed local commander
2. Hot-headed (and extremely provocative) move by the high command
3. Cold blooded high command move to escalate tensions in the cause of some domestic priorities (set stage for new caretaker regime? derail excessive Indo-Pak bonhomie from the civilian regime?). All of these options sound insane, but you never know.
4. Jihadi false-flag operation? After all, they carry out operations wearing Pak army uniforms all the time within Pakistan. Why not

Are there other possibilities?

3 would seem to be the real danger here. The rest can all blow over eventually.

What do people think?

Btw, from a military professional point of view, this will probably lead to a serious inquiry on the Indian side. If a pakistani soldier was killed 2 days ago, one would expect the opposing army to be extra alert. To get 2 soldiers killed can happen to any unit on military duty in hazardous zones, but to have the attackers behead them and take the heads away? that doesnt look good.

[omarali50]

That comment grew into this blog post about escalation on the LOC

http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/01/...ne-of-control/

[blueblood]

IF even 50% of various accounts (like this one, most detailed yet: http://www.telegraphindia.com/113010...p#.UOziJ47R1SU ) are true we most likely had usual ### for tat shenanigans until yesterday, but beheading is a definite extreme provocation. If that is what happened (that persons in Pak army uniforms crossed the border and beheaded one or maybe two Indian soldiers) then possibilities would include:
1. Hot-headed local commander
2. Hot-headed (and extremely provocative) move by the high command
3. Cold blooded high command move to escalate tensions in the cause of some domestic priorities (set stage for new caretaker regime? derail excessive Indo-Pak bonhomie from the civilian regime?). All of these options sound insane, but you never know.
4. Jihadi false-flag operation? After all, they carry out operations wearing Pak army uniforms all the time within Pakistan. Why not

Are there other possibilities?

3 would seem to be the real danger here. The rest can all blow over eventually.

What do people think?

Btw, from a military professional point of view, this will probably lead to a serious inquiry on the Indian side. If a pakistani soldier was killed 2 days ago, one would expect the opposing army to be extra alert. To get 2 soldiers killed can happen to any unit on military duty in hazardous zones, but to have the attackers behead them and take the heads away? that doesnt look good.

Omar, it is somewhat disappointing to see that even educated Pakistanis like yourself believe that it was a ### for tat retaliation by PA. IA has nothing to gain from ceasefire violation unlike PA. If there is, please enlighten me.

PA on the other hand is well known for such barbarism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajay_Ahuja

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saurabh_Kalia

Two of the many examples out there.

Despite these incidences IA buried Pak soldiers with due respect when PA refused to accept the bodies.

I was just watching Salman Khurshid's (Minster External affairs) interview. For half an hour he kept repeating the rhetoric. Fuc**** moron.

[davidbfpo]

We all know a spark can cause a conflagration, if this report is true "It was grannie that done it".

Indian bunker construction on the northern reaches of the Line of Control — initiated after a grandmother crossed into Pakistan-administered Kashmir to be with her sons — sparked off a spiral of violence.....Early in September, 70-year old Reshma Bi, left the village of Charonda, near Uri, to live with her sons and grandchildren across the Line of Control....appeared to have left in the hope of living out her last years with her family.

Link:http://m.thehindu.com/news/national/....co%2FNnMvH7SX

[davidbfpo]

An Indian commentary on the potential crisis in Kashmir, on the wider context and concludes:

Pakistan has suffered far more deaths in sectarian violence and terrorist incidents than India. In 2012, they lost more than 6,000 lives compared to India, which saw about 800 deaths. This alone should have compelled them to clamp down on the non-state actors working as death merchants.

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...scopic-as-ever

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "tweet" from a lurker:

In classified protests to a United Nations watchdog that have never been disclosed till now, Pakistan has accused Indian soldiers of involvement in the torture and decapitation of at least 12 Pakistani soldiers in cross-Line of Control raids since 1998, as well as the massacre of 29 civilians......Ever since 9/11,” a senior Pakistan army officer told The Hindu, “we have sought to downplay these incidents, aware that a public backlash [could] push us into a situation we cannot afford on the LoC.

Link:http://www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...cle4358199.ece

Some fascinating comments on communication within each country, best of all some statistics:

Pakistan argues that India’s own figures show a sharp decline in operations by jihadists in Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, according to the Indian government, 72 terrorists, 24 civilians and 15 security personnel, including police, were killed in terrorist violence in the State — lower, in total, than the 521 murders recorded in Delhi alone. In 2011, the figures were, respectively, 100, 40 and 33; in 2010, 232, 164 and 69.

[Ray]

Pakistan has suffered far more deaths in sectarian violence and terrorist incidents than India. In 2012, they lost more than 6,000 lives compared to India, which saw about 800 deaths. This alone should have compelled them to clamp down on the non-state actors working as death merchants.

One does not understand the logic for this oft repeated equation of Pakistan having suffered more deaths in sectarian violence and terrorist incidents than India,

The Shia Sunni internecine battles are their own creation as is the Taliban of all hues. It is a known fact that the terrorists are taken to be 'strategic assets' of Pakistan.

Pakistan would do well to realise the deep seated meaning behind the words from the Bible - As you sow so shall you reap!

[omarali50]

As the state's fractures become more public in pakistan, things are popping out all over the place. For those who can understand Urdu, this discussion will be most interesting: http://www.zemtv.com/2013/01/31/capi...-january-2013/

This article is in English: http://gen-shahidaziz.blogspot.com/2...e-of-fire.html

btw, lest this article give anyone the impression that General Shahid Aziz is very sane, please read some more of his pieces, starting with: http://gen-shahidaziz.blogspot.com/2...-is-allah.html

My somewhat intemprate comment on this General: http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/01/...#comment-49301