Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this review piece by an American South Asian SME:http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/the...gy-in-kashmir/

I had not seen the public statements by the Indian military that they could do no more. Curious to see the emphasis on better policing too.

[davidbfpo]

The unrest in Kashmir this summer has been far greater than usual, notably the response to the death of a young, popular Kashmiri militant in July and often builds up before the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

An Indian think tank's research suggests deaths have dropped:
See:http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...casualties.htm

Even before today's attack some suspected the Pakistani military have renewed the "militant" option:http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/pakis...irth-of-jihad/

Last night un-named "militants" upped the temperature, as the BBC reports in this backgrounder:

Militants have attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says.All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37399969

[davidbfpo]

It appears that India has learnt little:

An imminent cross border terrorist attack should have been anticipated by our counter-terrorist agencies if the September 17 statement of Vikash Chandra – inspector general of the Border Security Force, Kashmir frontier – to PTI was correct. He said that around200 militants from across the border were trying to infiltrate. He added that some had already sneaked in. No doubt he had made this statement – which came before the Uri attack on September 18 – to support the Modi government’s allegation that Pakistan was influencing the Valley unrest. But anybody who knows Pakistan’s activities would have realised that there was no need for it to physically send terrorists across the border merely to throw stones; if 200 men were coming, then this was for something much more sinister.
Another news report on September 19is more disconcerting. This would indicate that the entire intelligence process had broken down in the valley. TheIndian Express quoted a “senior police officer” saying that the multi-agency centre (MAC) in Srinagar which is meant to “fuse” counter-terror intelligence from different agencies has not met since protests began in the Valley, i.e. from the second week of July. It cited another “top police officer” that no reliable figures on successful infiltration attempts could be collated since “the protests have caused a breakdown in our information network”.

Link:http://thewire.in/67174/uri-attack-a...t-pause-leaps/

[davidbfpo]

An excellent explanation of the current crisis by Shashank Joshi, via the Australian blog Lowy Interpreter:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...n-Kashmir.aspx

Point to note:

The Uri attack killed 18 soldiers, but this has to be understood in the context of the death of 135 members of Indian security forces this year alone, including 64 in Kashmir.

[AdamG]

India conducted surgical strikes last night along#the LoC to safeguard our nation, the Defence Ministry said on Thursday. “Significant casualties have been caused to terrorists and those trying to shield them. We don’t have a plan to further conduct such strikes. India has spoken to Pakistan,” DGMO Lt Gen Ranbir Singh said.
“Based on receiving specific and credible inputs that some terrorist teams had positioned themselves at launch pads along Line of Control to carryout infiltration and conduct terrorist strikes inside Jammu and Kashmir and in various metros in other states, the Indian Army conducted surgical strikes at several of these launch pads to pre-empt infiltration by terrorists. The operations were focussed on ensuring that these terrorists do not succeed in their design to cause destruction and endanger the lives of our citizens.

http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...istry-3055715/

[davidbfpo]

Kashmir has been "bubbling along" for awhile, with occasional reports in the media I use, so thanks to Twitter for the pointer to this commentary by a former Indian Home Minister; which is sub-titled:

The writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir.

He writes:

he writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir. We cannot retrieve the situation through a ‘muscular’ policy — tough talk by ministers, dire warnings from the Army Chief, deploying more troops or killing more protesters.

Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...aster-4614675/

A "lurker" added:

The assessment is correct. The Hindu Central government's only aim is to suppress Muslims and they feel that strong arm tactics will solve the Valley problem. But the situation is explosive. Pakistan is very happy that we are creating our own problems.

[davidbfpo]

An Indian SME commentary on the situation in Kashmir and the apparent decision by the Indian national government to:

...adapt the “strong arm strategy” of the Israeli government of ignoring the Palestinians since 2001.

(Later) All these would indicate that blindly following the Israeli strategy as our counter-terrorist tactics would be totally inadvisable.

Link:http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/N...-in-the-Valley