Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[Ray]

The Indian PM who was born in Gah Pakistan has put his political life on the line trying to make peace with Pakistan.

At each step, he seems to be at sea with the Pakistani response. Still he bats on!

There is nothing wrong with Indians or Pakistanis.

it is just that there is a trust deficit.

In the first war, it was said by Pakistan it was tribal and Pak army men on leave who were inflamed and so they attacked! Imagine that!

Who provided the logistics and it is surprising that Army men 'on leave' can take their country to war!

In 1965, it was said by Pakistan that it were Indian Kashmiris who were 'rebelling' against India. It turned out the so called rebels were Pakistani troops operating under Op Gibraltar.

In Kargil, the Pakistan Army and Musharraf claimed that it were the Mujhaeedins who infiltrated. Now Pakistan Generals and a Colonel all from ISI has gone on record that it was always the Pakistani Army which was in action and not mujhadins.

Musharraf continues to deny it and he did so on Indian TV.

It is time to own up, clear the air, get trust back and move ahead.

There has been too much of bloodshed.

[davidbfpo]

Stephen Tankel, a regional analyst and LeT expert, provides insight into a possible pivot to Kashmir by extremists after Afghanistan:http://warontherocks.com/2013/07/pak...wn-pivot-east/

[parvati]

LeT’s collaboration with local groups in Kashmir is not surprising given the denial plausibility and the ability to avoid crossing the LOC. LeT’s collaboration with groups within Kashmir is a an old strategy and more and more the Indian press is reporting that they are in collaboration with India based groups including as SIMI, Jaish Mohamed, IM and their expansion even extends as far out to recruiting cadres and collaboration with groups in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc. Even the recent attacks in Srinagar mentioned in the article davidbpfo provided were attributed to HM with LeT backing. Something is cooking in Kashmir.

On a second note, one constantly hears of Kashmir being the most militarized zone in the whole and the oft-repeated figure is 700,000 Indian troops stationed in the area. Given that the both the Pak/Chinese border is in the area, I am sure the figures are high, but 700,000 sounds too much. I have come across Indian mainstream media reporting around 70K paramilitary and 150-200k infantry troops, Indian govt. has never made the numbers public and the 300K versus 700k is still a huge difference.

[davidbfpo]

An interesting backgrounder and rightly observes can the new Pakistani government and an Indian government heading to the ballot box exercise restraint:http://www.firstpost.com/india/exclu...h-1014081.html

[davidbfpo]

Another report on returning militants, this one in the NYT and has some extra details, plus how one returnee appears to have been compromised and freed by the courts:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/07/wo...pagewanted=all

The compromised militant's words:

You’re not a terrorist for life...It’s very possible that you will change your mind

[Ray]

Kashmiris are not serious terrorists.

Most join not on ideological or religious grounds, but the monthly pay is good.

That they are not serious is indicated by the fact that the JKLF is no longer taken as a serious outfit by the Pakistanis and ISI and so they have given the task to the Let, Huji and others foreign elements, while using the Kashmiris as guides and porters.

[davidbfpo]

Within an article on scaling down the military presence in Kashmir and placing the emphasis on the police are several facts, here are some:

The principal reason to consider scaling back the Army’s counter-insurgency presence in Kashmir is simple: there isn’t an insurgency to be fought. Ever since the 2001-2002 near-war between India and Pakistan, levels of violence in the State have fallen steadily. In 2001, as many as 1,067 civilians, 590 security forces personnel, and 2,850 terrorists were killed in fighting. The numbers fell in 2003 to 658 civilians, 338 security forces and 1,546 terrorists. Last year’s numbers, the authoritative South Asia Terrorism Portal records, were 20 civilians, 61 security forces and 100 terrorists.

In population-adjusted terms, the insurgency in J&K cost 1.51 lives per 100,000 persons of its population, lower than the homicide rate in Delhi or Haryana. The State’s total firearms fatalities were well below those in Uttar Pradesh (1,575 in 2012) or Bihar (681) or even West Bengal (269).

Link:http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...le5597916.ece?